winterwarlock Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 26 minutes ago, Rjay said: Don't you live in Central Jersey, Warlock? yep but there are 8 years from 2000 similar or worse including 2002 which is the grandaddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Just now, winterwarlock said: yep and this year is already running behind 8 others years from 2000 on including 2022 which we broiled and significantly behind 2002 Dude it's July 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Dude it's July 8th. 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Dude it's July 8th. isnt that chart up to July 8th so... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 first of all that chart is WRONG...it has to be up to July 8 not the whole season there is no way Hightstown record is 17 90 degree days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 10 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: first of all that chart is WRONG...it has to be up to July 8 not the whole season there is no way Hightstown record is 17 90 degree days The chart shows 95+ days for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Nice sunset tonight. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 People over estimate the number of 90 degree days we get on average across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Hot weather prevailed yet again today. High temperatures included: Baltimore: 98° New York City: 95° Newark: 94° Philadelphia: 95° Washington, DC: 98° The very warm and humid weather will prevail inro the middle of the week with temperatures generally running several degrees above normal. Some showers or thundershowers are possible. The latter part of the week could turn slightly cooler. In parts of California, Nevada, and Arizona, a severe long-duration and dangerous heatwave continues. Daggett, CA tied its all-time record of 118° for a second consecutive day. Redding recorded its record 4th consecutive 115° day. Blythe (120°), Death Valley (126°), Needles (123°), and Palm Springs (122°) all reached or exceeded 120°. Severe heat appears unlikely in the East during at least the first half of July. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was +4.31 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.250 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.6° (2.1° above normal). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 29 minutes ago, Rjay said: The chart shows 95+ days for the year. ah ok...im sorry i thought this was days over 90...anyone have that chart 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 14 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: ah ok...im sorry i thought this was days over 90...anyone have that chart I'm sure one of those guys can whip one up. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 92/73 temp split today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 1 hour ago, winterwarlock said: ah ok...im sorry i thought this was days over 90...anyone have that chart Let's pull up a dew point chart too while we're at it. The data supports this summer as being one of the hottest already, now combine that with average dews. And it's only gonna get hotter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 On 7/5/2024 at 11:45 AM, SnoSki14 said: Good luck dodging rain with dews in the upper 70s On 7/5/2024 at 12:02 PM, forkyfork said: everyone start preparing for flooding now 18z Euro for the week 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: 18z Euro for the week wow...what about Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: wow...what about Saturday 18z only goes to 90, but I think ensembles go to 144 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 93 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Highs: NYC:95 TTN: 95 PHL: 95 New Brnswck: 94 EWR: 94 TEB: 93 LGA: 992 ISP: 90 JFK: 89 ACY: 89 BLM: 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Records: Highs: EWR: 105 (1993) NYC: 100 (1993) LGA: 99 (1994) JFK: 97 (1971) Lows: EWR: 56 (1948) NYC: 56 (1894) LGA: 60 (1984) JFK: 59 (2018) Historical: 1680: The first confirmed tornado death in the United States occurred in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The funnel was filled with, stones, bushes, and other things. The tornado also unroofed a barn and snapped many large trees. 1816 - Frost was reported in low places throughout New England. (David Ludlum) 1950 - The town of York, NE, was deluged with 13.15 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1975 - Three people were killed and six others were injured when lightning struck a walnut tree near Mayo, FL. The nine people were stringing tobacco under a tin shed when the bolt hit the nearby tree. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms in the central U.S. produced wind gusts to 90 mph at Waterloo, IA, 6.38 inches of rain at Tescott, KS, and twenty-five minutes of ping-pong ball size hail at Drummond, OK. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thirty cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Beckley, WV, equalled their all-time record with a high of 93 degrees. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms spawned seven tornadoes in Adams and Logan counties of eastern Colorado, and hail caused 2.3 million dollars damage in Adams, Logan and Washington counties. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Sixteen cities in the central and western U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 103 degrees at Denver, CO, equalled their record for July, and a 110 degree reading at Rapid City, SD, equalled their all-time record high. Denver reported a record five straight days of 100 degree heat, and Scottsbluff, NE, reported a record eight days in a row of 100 degree weather. (The National Weather Summary) 2003: What may be the world's highest dew point temperature was recorded at Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, in the Persian Gulf. A dew point of 95 degrees was recorded at 3 PM while the air temperature was 108 degrees. The apparent temperature at that time would have been 172 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 4 hours ago, winterwarlock said: yep but there are 8 years from 2000 similar or worse including 2002 which is the grandaddy For which site? and do you want to see 90 degree days thru jul 8th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 High for the day yesterday was 95 here. Current temp 74/DP 73/RH 97% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 8 hours ago, qg_omega said: 18z Euro for the week It's definitely been underwhelming. Useless heat/humidity that hasn't yielded anything It's like cold/dry in the winter. Probably will have to wait til more tropical activity springs up later in the summer. Euro has a very active August/September for east coast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 We knew that the bulk of the moisture with Beryl would go west from a few days ago due to the record breaking WAR to 603 dam. Our next chance of more widespread heavy convection will probably hold off until Thursday into Saturday with the slowly moving front. The Euro was too dry last weekend compared to SPC HREF that did much better with the heavy rains. The GFS has the possibility for 2”+ with that round of convection where the best training sets up. So a continuation of the rain on weekends theme going back to March 1st. Data for July 5, 2024 through July 7, 2024Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. CT DANBURY COOP 3.17 NY SOUTH SALEM 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 3.04 CT MERIDEN 2.8 WSW CoCoRaHS 2.93 CT RIDGEFIELD 2.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 2.81 CT BETHEL 3.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 2.64 CT SOUTHBURY 2.3 W CoCoRaHS 2.64 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 2.63 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 2.60 CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 2.58 CT GUILFORD COOP 2.52 NY STONY POINT 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 2.47 CT PROSPECT 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 2.33 CT PROSPECT 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 2.30 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 10 hours ago, JustinRP37 said: People over estimate the number of 90 degree days we get on average across the area. Maybe because the heat index (real feel) is talked about too much? I would prefer less emphasis be put on "real feel" temps, even though there might be actual health risks involved. Too many people hear wind chill of 10 degrees, and think that is the actual temperature. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 42 minutes ago, bluewave said: We knew that the bulk of the moisture with Beryl would go west from a few days ago due to the record breaking WAR to 603 dam. Our next chance of more widespread heavy convection will probably hold off until Friday into Saturday with the slowly moving front. The Euro was too dry last weekend compared to SPC HREF that did much better with the heavy rains. The GFS has the possibility for 2”+ with that round of convection where the best training sets up. So a continuation of the rain on weekends theme going back to March 1st. Data for July 5, 2024 through July 7, 2024Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. CT DANBURY COOP 3.17 NY SOUTH SALEM 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 3.04 CT MERIDEN 2.8 WSW CoCoRaHS 2.93 CT RIDGEFIELD 2.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 2.81 CT BETHEL 3.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 2.64 CT SOUTHBURY 2.3 W CoCoRaHS 2.64 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 2.63 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 2.60 CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 2.58 CT GUILFORD COOP 2.52 NY STONY POINT 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 2.47 CT PROSPECT 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 2.33 CT PROSPECT 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 2.30 Just another example of 4-7 day models not getting it right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 8 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Just another example of 4-7 day models not getting it right One of the bigger issues in recent years has been the models underestimating the WAR day 6-10. So it’s no surprise the WAR is trending stronger the closer we get. But with these record high dew points there is always going to be convection around. We usually need to get within the range of the CAMs like HREF for more specific forecasts. While these CAMS can signal the potential for heavy rains, the exact location is usually off. That’s why I like to look at the Upton and Mt Holly zones in totality for what our options could be. Then wait until we get closer in to refine. Same goes for winter systems since we still haven’t gotten to the point of perfect IMBY forecasts even into the shorter range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 78 / 73 . Partly cloudy, foggy beaches and hazy, hot humid. Low - mid 90s strong Southerly flow , blast of 850 MB temps >20C later today into tomorrow. Enough sun will push temps higher with less onshore. Rain chances increase Wed PM - Fri with strong tropical flow, boundary (whats left of Bryl)and cut off low spinning around the preriphery of the Atlantic ridge offshore. Beyond there continued hot with a more SW flow Sun (7/14) - Tue (7/16), could see some 95 temp. Overall warm- hot and humid with strong ridgee/heat west, Atlantic ridge nudging into the EC, stronger heat from the WC into the EC latr in the month. 7/9 - 7/10 : Humid/ Hot slight storm chances 7/11 - 7/13: Humid, Warm-hot , increased rain/storm chnces - could b drenchers 7/14 - 7/16 : Hot - stronger heat potential 7/17 - beyond : Overall warm - hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Tropical flow still capable and likely to have storms and heavy rains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 8 hours ago, SACRUS said: For which site? and do you want to see 90 degree days thru jul 8th? yeah a chart of 90 degree days up to July 8 so far...I think I had 15 but I have to go back and check. Curious to what some of those hot summers like 2002, 2022, 1999 had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 33 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Tropical flow still capable and likely to have storms and heavy rains. Separate storm now on Saturday, no rain from beryl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 6 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Separate storm now on Saturday, no rain from beryl Beryl remnants were never going to give us much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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