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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

We shall see, yesterday was supposed to have nothing either until we got closer

And I see the latest models do have a few pop ups for this afternoon. Probably will be a few areas that get lucky. 

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9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And I see the latest models do have a few pop ups for this afternoon. Probably will be a few areas that get lucky. 

Yup, showers developing in western jersey. I wouldn’t bet on staying dry with this type of airmass 

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Nice AFD from Upton,

X

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1125 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure lingers over the area through Saturday
afternoon as a cold front approaches. The front then stalls and
lingers into Sunday before dissipating as high pressure builds
from the west. Another frontal system approaches early next week
with its associated cold front moving in towards midweek. This
frontal boundary could very well linger nearby from mid to late
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
***Key Points***

1.) Heat Advisories remains in effect across NE NJ, NYC, N
Nassau Co, Lower Hudson Valley and Fairfield Co. Heat index
values could reach up to 105F for southern portions of NE NJ.
All other areas under the Heat Advisory could see heat indices
peak between 98-100F.

2.) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms re-develop
this afternoon & evening. Chances look better for western
locations.

A prefrontal surface trough is expected to linger just west of
the Hudson River this afternoon before a weak cold front
approaches from the west and slowly passes and stalls tonight.
This occurs in tandem with an upper-level trough to our north
which weakens through tonight.

First round of showers and thunderstorms are moving out east
late this morning. CAPEs recuperate this afternoon, especially
INVOF NYC metro and areas north and west with partly sunny
conditions and a moist boundary layer. SBCAPES of 1500-2500
J/kg anticipated for these areas. With the trough in place and
subtle shortwave energy providing some mechanical lift, iso-sct
showers and thunderstorms anticipated for approx the western
half of the forecast area mid afternoon into early evening. Bulk
shear in combination with CAPE is enough for at least some
consideration of severe wind gust potential in thunderstorms,
mainly NW of NYC where conditions will be slightly more
favorable. Freezing/wet-bulb zero heights are rather high, so
while hail will be possible given CAPE and shear aloft, chances
are it won`t reach severe thresholds. After about 9 or 10pm,
most of the shower and thunderstorm activity should be cleared
out of the area with a front stalling across the area. Patchy
fog may occur with persistent cloud cover across eastern areas,
but will mainly depend on where the weak front stalls. Overnight
lows will drop into the low/mid-70s.

Flash flooding threat remains lows this afternoon into evening.
PWATs have lowered to around 1.75" in the area where showers and
storms are more likely to occur, and the flow aloft is strong
enough to prevent very slow-moving cells. Should training occur,
there could be a low threat of flash flooding, but looking at
mainly minor urban/poor drainage flooding potential.

Dewpoints generally in the mid 70s this afternoon with actual
highs in the upper-80s to low-90s in the NYC metro and areas N/W
of NYC. The rest of S CT and LI see highs in the mid/low-80s
with far eastern areas in the upper-70s for afternoon highs.
Heat Advisories remain posted across NE NJ, NYC, N Nassau Co,
Lower Hudson Valley and Fairfield Co. Heat index values could
reach up to 105F in spots for the urban corridor of NE NJ. All
other areas under the Heat Advisory could see heat indices peak
between 95-100F. Some guidance appears to veer winds from S to
SW late in the day, advecting in drier low-level air. Should
this occur earlier than expected, heat advisory criteria may be
more on the marginal side for some areas outside of NE NJ, but
for now, expecting a later arrival of this drier air.
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4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

It looks like that downpour in Somerset is going to miss me just to the south but might hit you. It's going to be close. 

Sorry. Looks like to coming directly for me now 

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We may be able to anpproach our all-time PWAT record of 2.62” as the remnant moisture plume from Beryl comes north.


IMG_0357.thumb.png.dca198e7a650cf2b7e45d2216a2ca1cf.png

Someone might get 10"+ this week. The moisture values are off the charts

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30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Someone might get 10"+ this week. The moisture values are off the charts

The exact track of the remnants will be important as to where the heaviest axis of rainfall sets up. But this pattern is much more amplified than normal. The 12z GFS is advertising the first 603 dam WAR pattern this week. 
 

IMG_0358.thumb.png.e0241d69a1d6624a1d3a937543d63cc9.png

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9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Good amount of CTG lighting strikes with these storms the past few days 

i’m jealous, had my camera out and everything but haven’t gotten much

Mount Holly’s AFD pointed out the warmth is so deep in the atmosphere the wet-bulb zero is pretty high up, reducing hail growth (and my implication, lightning)

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