Allsnow Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Season doesn't really get going til August. That said, the Nina is not going crazy so that could lead to a reduced # of storms. We shall see what happens. Seldom do these cold/snowy or busy hurricanes season forecast ever work out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We shall see what happens. Rarely do these cold/snowy or busy hurricanes season forecast ever work out Part of the issue is that everyone went hysterical on the big season so the expectations are high...Even a busy season does not alway equate to landfalls... and the cold/snowy forecasts are a staple from certain forecasters-just have to see through the hype....Last winter even remotely cold snowy was 20-21...and even that was a great 3 week stretch and not the whole winter or anything close to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 .01" rainfall last 24 hours. Let's continue to play kick the can. Very dry and disappointing "wet stretch" especially considering the high DP pattern that has been in place for the last 3-4 weeks. Some places haven done well but those places are a small percentage of this sub forum. It has been dry. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 12 minutes ago, MANDA said: .01" rainfall last 24 hours. Let's continue to play kick the can. Very dry and disappointing "wet stretch" especially considering the high DP pattern that has been in place for the last 3-4 weeks. Some places haven done well but those places are a small percentage of this sub forum. It has been dry. Models are very active inside 5 days then is just disappears as we get closer. Hopefully, that doesn’t happen with Friday into the weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 31 Author Share Posted July 31 Just now, Allsnow said: Models are very active inside 5 days then is just disappears as we get closer. Hopefully, that doesn’t happen with Friday into the weekend Nam is quite wet this afternoon lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 31 Author Share Posted July 31 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 55 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Part of the issue is that everyone went hysterical on the big season so the expectations are high...Even a busy season does not alway equate to landfalls... and the cold/snowy forecasts are a staple from certain forecasters-just have to see through the hype....Last winter even remotely cold snowy was 20-21...and even that was a great 3 week stretch and not the whole winter or anything close to it. As global temperatures rise, I guess it's easy just to assume that this will spawn more tropical systems? A novice could just forecast 2 storms above the average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 3 minutes ago, Dark Star said: As global temperatures rise, I guess it's easy just to assume that this will spawn more tropical systems? A novice could just forecast 2 storms above the average... Kind of like monthly temp departures--every month is +2 around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Kind of like monthly temp departures--every month is +2 around here. Yes. At least 2 above and this is against our highest set of 30 year normals. Just seems near impossible to get a month 2 below normal at this point. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 37 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Models are very active inside 5 days then is just disappears as we get closer. Hopefully, that doesn’t happen with Friday into the weekend Yeah I'm not gonna get my hopes up too high for Friday into the weekend after what has happened the last few weeks. As Manda said, the lack of rain this summer has been very frustrating considering all the high humidity we've had. Storms this afternoon look spotty. I hope we get lucky with something but it's only a slim chance. I'll probably be watering the vegetable garden again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 31 Author Share Posted July 31 6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah I'm not gonna get my hopes up too high for Friday into the weekend after what has happened the last few weeks. As Manda said, the lack of rain this summer has been very frustrating considering all the high humidity we've had. Storms this afternoon look spotty. I hope we get lucky with something but it's only a slim chance. I'll probably be watering the vegetable garden again. Yeah at least give me sunny and dry if it's not going to rain. All these clouds and humidity is useless 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 20 minutes ago, MANDA said: Yes. At least 2 above and this is against our highest set of 30 year normals. Just seems near impossible to get a month 2 below normal at this point. The only month in recent years we have been able to get something approaching regular cold departures has been November. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: The only month in recent years we have been able to get something approaching regular cold departures has been November. I was just noticed that when I was looking at some climate stats for the Ohio Valley region the other day. November is by far the month that's changed the least over the past 3 or 4 decades, which is odd. It might just be a mean reversion type thing, however. If you look at older historical data, November had previously been one of the fastest warming months of the 20th century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 31 Author Share Posted July 31 Hrrr has some storms now across parts of nj and north and east of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah at least give me sunny and dry if it's not going to rain. All these clouds and humidity is useless Agreed. We have had lots of cloudy days since the start of last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah at least give me sunny and dry if it's not going to rain. All these clouds and humidity is useless this has to be ewr's least rainy humid month 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Hrrr has some storms now across parts of nj and north and east of the city Yep on the 14z run, but then the HRRR took away our storms on the 15z run lol. Who the heck knows. A few areas will get lucky this afternoon and evening, but too bad it's only isolated activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 53 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yep on the 14z run, but then the HRRR took away our storms on the 15z run lol. Who the heck knows. A few areas will get lucky this afternoon and evening, but too bad it's only isolated activity. I take it the HRRR uses the most recent sounding data? It seems to change by the hour, sometimes quite drastically. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: I was just noticed that when I was looking at some climate stats for the Ohio Valley region the other day. November is by far the month that's changed the least over the past 3 or 4 decades, which is odd. It might just be a mean reversion type thing, however. If you look at older historical data, November had previously been one of the fastest warming months of the 20th century. It’s one of the few times of the year when MJO 5 is cold for us. With the record WPAC warm pool most other MJO 4-7 periods are warm. So November is the only real outlier month for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s one of the few times of the year when MJO 5 is cold for us. With the record WPAC warm pool most other MJO 4-7 periods are warm. So November is the only real outlier month for us. Interesting observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: yay 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 25 minutes ago, forkyfork said: yay Haha, what an awful model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 3 minutes ago, FPizz said: Haha, what an awful model it's still showing a cluster moving through. we just need storms to organize quickly where there's currently nothing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 7th wettest July for Cape May and 6th driest at SMQ. Time Series Summary for CAPE MAY 2 NW, NJ - Month of JulClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1959 10.52 0 2 1956 8.55 0 3 2000 8.38 0 4 2017 8.33 0 5 1945 7.99 0 6 1958 7.21 0 7 2024 6.85 4 8 1989 6.60 0 - 1926 6.60 0 9 1896 6.55 16 10 2001 6.17 0 Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ - Month of JulClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2013 0.07 2 2 2003 0.10 25 3 1999 0.61 0 4 2022 0.86 0 5 2002 1.00 0 6 2024 1.64 1 7 2015 1.88 0 8 2001 2.19 0 9 2005 2.78 0 10 2011 2.90 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 July finished with a preliminary mean temperature of 79.7° in New York City. That was 2.2° above normal. Tomorrow will be variably cloudy. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible. Heat will likely return during the first week in August. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The extended range guidance continues to suggest that August will likely be warmer than normal. However, there is a possibility that the second week of the month could feature a cool shot. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the early fall. The SOI was -23.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.407 today. This will be the last discussion until after mid-August. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Glad I didn’t get invested with today’s false rain threat. I’m sure Cape May will find a way to get more rain today… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 31 Author Share Posted July 31 35 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Glad I didn’t get invested with today’s false rain threat. I’m sure Cape May will find a way to get more rain today… CT and south jersey again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: CT and south jersey again Yup storms blowing up in south jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 it’s so nice out if you’re a coconut tree or maybe an iguana or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: CT and south jersey again Just missed me to the north-could hear the rumbles but no rain here outside of a light shower overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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