Cfa Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 38 minutes ago, gravitylover said: I vote for weather like today 4 days a week from early May to late September. *Late September to early May for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 Generally near normal readings will prevail through the weekend. An offshore system could bring clouds and some showers early next week, but it remains possible that the storm will pass far enough to the east to avoid bringing showers to much of the region. Heat will likely return during the first week in August. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. Some of the extended range guidance suggests that August could be warmer to much warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was +14.22 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.002 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.7° (2.2° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 1 hour ago, EWR757 said: A photo of the Duke Farms Mesonet in Hillsborough, NJ. Along with the ASOS at KSMQ, one of the warmest (and most humid) spots in north/central NJ this summer. Average temperature at SMQ is running warmer than 2010 through July 25th. A close 2nd in 90° days at 23. 3rd place for 95° days by July 25th. The average max daily dew point is just ahead of 2013 at 73.6° with a few days to go. Records at SMQ started in 1999. Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-07-25 75.2 0 2 2010-07-25 74.5 0 3 2013-07-25 74.3 0 4 1999-07-25 74.0 8 5 2020-07-25 73.8 0 - 2005-07-25 73.8 0 Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2012-07-25 25 1 - 2010-07-25 25 24 2 2024-07-25 23 0 3 2022-07-25 22 0 4 2021-07-25 20 1 5 1999-07-25 19 159 Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1999-07-25 11 159 2 2012-07-25 10 1 3 2024-07-25 8 0 4 2022-07-25 7 0 - 2011-07-25 7 0 5 2002-07-25 5 2 https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NJ_ASOS&station=SMQ&season=jul&varname=dwpf&agg=max&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 Highs: EWR: 86 JFK: 86 New Brnswck: 85 PHL: 85 ACY: 85 TEB: 85 TTN: 84 BLM: 84 NYC: 84 ISP: 83 LGA: 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 Records: Highs: EWR: 99 (2005) NYC: 98 (1940) LGA: 98 (1940) JFK: 94 (1982) Lows: EWR: 57 (1953) NYC: 55 (1920) LGA: 62 (1976) JFK: 58 (1976) Historical: 1819 - Twin cloudbursts of fifteen inches struck almost simultaneously at Catskill, NY, and Westfield, MA. Flash flooding resulted in enormous erosion. (David Ludlum) 1874: Torrential rainfall brought flash flooding to Pittsburg, Pennsylvania. 1890: During the morning hours, an estimated F3 tornado went through the southern part of Lawrence, Massachusetts. The tornado left 500 people homeless as the tornado destroyed 35 homes and damaged 60 others. 1897: Jewel, Maryland received 14.75 inches of rain in a 24 hour period. This record is currently the oldest, state rainfall record in the United States. All other state rainfall records are in the 1900s and 2000s. 1931: A swarm of grasshoppers descends on crops throughout the American heartland, devastating millions of acres. Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota, already in the midst of a bad drought, suffered tremendously from this disaster. 1943 - Tishomingo, OK, baked in the heat as the mercury soared to 121 degrees, a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1960 - The temperature at Salt Lake City, UT, hit 107 degrees, an all-time record high for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1979: Tropical Storm Claudette stalled over Alvin, Texas, inundating the town with 45 inches of rain in 42 hours. The total included 43 inches in 24 hours, which is the maximum 24-hour rainfall in American history. 1987 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced hail two inches in diameter in McHenry County, IL, and wind gusts to 70 mph at Auburn, ME. A wind gust of 90 mph was recorded at Blairstown, NJ, before the anemometer broke. The high winds were associated with a small tornado. The record high of 88 degrees at Beckley, WV, was their sixth in a row. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, and in the south central U.S. Eight cities in the northwestern and north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Salem, OR, hit 103 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Morning thunderstorms produced heavy rain in southeastern Texas, with more than three inches reported at the Widllife Refuge in southwestern Chambers County. Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Montana, with wind gusts to 62 mph reported at Helena. Eight cities from Maine to Minnesota reported record high temperatures for the date, including Newark, NJ, with a reading of 99 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 i’m freezing this morning, used to waking up when it’s already 75/73 and right now it’s 60/59 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 Looks like the offshore low should be closer to eastern sections early next week. But there still could be a little inverted trough feature over NJ. So it may be a nowcasters special to see where the best convection ends up focusing since IVTs can be fickle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 78 / 58 clear. Great day on tap and the few day reprieve from the higher dewpoints. Mid - upper 80s, warmer/drier spots may touch 90. Sunday a repeat with increasing humidity. Cut off low backs NW later Mon , clouds and showers NE sections. Front approached Tue (7/30). Hotter once to Wed (7/31) with next heatwave in the works - hottest stays north and inland. Overall warm / hot and humid. Both the GFS and Euro drive a Tropical systems towards Florida and up or recurving off the East coast in the 8/5 - 8/7 period. 7/27 - 7/28 : Gorgeous stretch near normal - dry 7/29 - 7/30 : Cut off backs in / warm front pushes north - clouds - showers <1.00 7/31 - beyond : Hotter overall - humid - tropics - storm chances - strongest heat north and west (<100) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 Caught between two ridges look in the Day 8 - 10 period - Ridge west , trough east, Atlantic ridge = any tropical system threatens the EC. Depsite the trough - warmer look as heat from west and north heads east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 This is the area/ energy to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 @Poker2015 this is usually balloon fest weekend. It would have been perfect this year. Stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 15 hours ago, EWR757 said: A photo of the Duke Farms Mesonet in Hillsborough, NJ. Along with the ASOS at KSMQ, one of the warmest (and most humid) spots in north/central NJ this summer. I feel like for the past couple years their temps have been running a little high on sunny days. That's like 4 miles from me and is usually the highest temp in the area. @mgerb , have you ever noticed that or am I just wrong haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 Warmest departures this month were west of the sea breeze front. But areas closer to the sea breeze and east did better with rainfall. The good news is that these maps are finally coloring in Long Island for departures and not leaving it blank. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 36 minutes ago, bluewave said: Warmest departures this month were west of the sea breeze front. But areas closer to the sea breeze and east did better with rainfall. The good news is that these maps are finally coloring in Long Island for departures and not leaving it blank. North shore/around the LIE has been lucky with rain so far. In Long Beach grass is brown. Enjoying the low humidity for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: North shore/around the LIE has been lucky with rain so far. In Long Beach grass is brown. Enjoying the low humidity for once. Pretty much the opposite of the LI South Shore up here in the rainfall department. The CT Shoreline is in the 4.00” to 7.00” range in July and grassy areas are green and lush. I can remember the frequent dry patterns this time of year when I was back on the LI South Shore. Monthly Data for July 2024 for Upton NY NWS CWAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. CT BETHEL 3.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 7.12 CT GUILFORD COOP 7.11 NY SOUTH SALEM 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 7.03 CT DARIEN 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 6.80 CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 6.74 CT DARIEN 2.4 NW CoCoRaHS 6.58 CT RIDGEFIELD 2.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 6.54 CT SOUTHBURY 2.3 W CoCoRaHS 6.53 CT NORWALK 1.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 6.52 CT SHELTON 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 6.47 NY CARMEL 4N COOP 6.34 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 6.31 NY SOUTH SALEM 2.1 NW CoCoRaHS 6.28 CT MERIDEN 2.8 WSW CoCoRaHS 6.24 CT OLD LYME 1.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 6.21 CT WATERBURY 1.3 WNW CoCoRaHS 6.19 CT BETHEL 0.5 E CoCoRaHS 6.11 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 6.04 CT NEWTOWN 4.6 SE CoCoRaHS 5.96 CT RIDGEFIELD 3.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 5.89 CT MONROE 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 5.86 CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 5.84 NY BEACON 4.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 5.77 CT NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 5.73 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 5.70 CT PROSPECT 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 5.68 CT NORWICH 5.4 SE CoCoRaHS 5.65 CT BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 5.59 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 5.56 CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 5.53 CT ANSONIA 1 NW COOP 5.46 CT BETHEL 4.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 5.45 CT NAUGATUCK 1.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 5.41 CT RIDGEFIELD 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 5.35 NY STONY POINT 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 5.29 CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 5.28 NY NEW HEMPSTEAD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 5.24 CT ESSEX VILLAGE 0.9 S CoCoRaHS 5.23 CT PROSPECT 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 5.18 CT OLD LYME 3.4 ESE CoCoRaHS 5.08 CT OLD LYME 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 5.05 NY PEEKSKILL 0.4 N CoCoRaHS 4.92 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 4.92 NY BRIARCLIFF MANOR 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 4.81 CT NIANTIC 1.1 SW CoCoRaHS 4.80 NY THORNWOOD 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 4.79 CT DANBURY COOP 4.67 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 4.66 CT MYSTIC 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 4.66 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 4.58 NY WEST POINT COOP 4.56 NJ HARRISON COOP 4.54 NJ CLARK TWP 1.3 ENE CoCoRaHS 4.54 NY SYOSSET COOP 4.51 CT WATERFORD 2.3 S CoCoRaHS 4.46 CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 4.44 CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 4.41 CT MYSTIC 1.6 W CoCoRaHS 4.40 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 4.37 CT NEW CANAAN 3.8 N CoCoRaHS 4.37 NJ CLARK TWP 0.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 4.36 CT WATERFORD 1.1 E CoCoRaHS 4.29 NY LITTLE NECK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 4.25 CT HIGGANUM 0.8 NE CoCoRaHS 4.17 NJ RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 4.15 CT CENTRAL WATERFORD 2.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 4.14 NY STATEN ISLAND 4.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 4.13 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.1 N CoCoRaHS 4.13 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 4.12 NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 4.12 CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 4.12 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 4.06 CT JEWETT CITY 3.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 4.05 CT CHESTER CENTER 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 4.04 NY ARMONK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 4.02 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 4.01 NY STATEN ISLAND 2.6 N CoCoRaHS 3.99 NY CENTERPORT COOP 3.99 CT GROTON 2.9 E CoCoRaHS 3.98 CT BRIDGEPORT 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 3.95 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 3.95 NY BROOKLYN 2.4 WSW CoCoRaHS 3.93 CT NEW LONDON 1.0 NNW CoCoRaHS 3.93 NJ PALISADES PARK 0.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 3.89 NY ST. JAMES COOP 3.88 CT COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 3.88 NJ KEARNY 1.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 3.86 CT NORWICH 5.2 SE CoCoRaHS 3.85 CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP 3.84 NJ WAYNE TWP 0.8 SSW CoCoRaHS 3.82 NY MANHASSET HILLS 0.2 NNE CoCoRaHS 3.81 NJ NEW PROVIDENCE 0.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 3.72 CT MYSTIC 3.4 NW CoCoRaHS 3.67 NJ LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW CoCoRaHS 3.66 CT DURHAM 1.2 W CoCoRaHS 3.65 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 3.64 NY PORT JERVIS 2.9 ESE CoCoRaHS 3.63 NY SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 3.60 NJ NORTH ARLINGTON 0.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 3.58 NY WARWICK 3.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 3.58 NY CORNWALL ON HUDSON 0.6 NNW CoCoRaHS 3.56 NY SPRING VALLEY 1.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 3.56 NY PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 3.56 NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 3.53 NY NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 3.51 CT CROMWELL 0.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 3.50 NJ CRANFORD TWP 1.1 ESE CoCoRaHS 3.49 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 3.48 NY HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 3.46 NJ GLEN ROCK 0.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 3.45 NJ WOOD-RIDGE 0.2 N CoCoRaHS 3.44 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 3.41 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 3.40 NJ SPRINGFIELD TWP 0.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 3.33 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 3.33 CT KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 3.33 NY WARWICK 3.9 W CoCoRaHS 3.31 CT STONINGTON 1.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 3.29 NY NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 3.28 NJ WEST CALDWELL TWP 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 3.27 NJ MONTVALE 1.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 3.27 CT GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW CoCoRaHS 3.27 NJ HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 3.22 NY RIDGE 1.5 SE CoCoRaHS 3.22 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 3.21 NJ WAYNE TWP 4.2 NNW CoCoRaHS 3.16 CT STONINGTON 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 3.15 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 3.14 NY MALVERNE 0.5 SE CoCoRaHS 3.14 NY SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 3.14 NJ LIVINGSTON TWP 2.0 NNE CoCoRaHS 3.13 NJ WAYNE TWP 2.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 3.12 NJ GLEN ROCK 0.7 SSE CoCoRaHS 3.11 NJ VERONA TWP 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 3.11 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 3.08 NJ MAPLEWOOD TWP 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 3.07 NJ OAKLAND 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 3.04 NY LARCHMONT 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 3.04 NJ CRANFORD TWP 1.1 NNW CoCoRaHS 3.00 NY PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 3.00 CT GRISWOLD 0.9 N CoCoRaHS 2.95 CT PAWCATUCK 0.8 SE CoCoRaHS 2.92 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 2.91 NJ WESTFIELD 0.8 WSW CoCoRaHS 2.84 NY FISHERS ISLAND 0.5 NE CoCoRaHS 2.84 CT PAWCATUCK 1.8 SSE CoCoRaHS 2.79 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 2.70 NY MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N CoCoRaHS 2.68 NJ OAKLAND 1.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 2.64 NY SELDEN 1.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 2.59 NJ RIVER EDGE 0.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 2.58 NY SHIRLEY 2.9 N CoCoRaHS 2.52 NY GREENWOOD LAKE 3.0 SW CoCoRaHS 2.49 CT MIDDLEFIELD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 2.47 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 2.45 NY BELLMORE 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 2.44 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 2.39 NJ TENAFLY 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 2.38 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 2.37 NY STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE CoCoRaHS 2.36 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 2.33 CT TRUMBULL 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 2.28 NJ MAYWOOD 0.2 SW CoCoRaHS 2.25 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 2.24 NY WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 2.23 NJ MONTCLAIR 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 2.18 NY LOCUST VALLEY 0.3 E CoCoRaHS 2.17 NY AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 2.16 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 2.10 NY MASSAPEQUA 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 2.10 NY WALDEN 1.2 S CoCoRaHS 2.03 NY BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 2.03 NY BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 2.03 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 2.02 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 2.01 NY DEER PARK 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 2.00 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 1.95 NY JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 1.88 NY AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW CoCoRaHS 1.87 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 1.86 NY RIVERHEAD 1.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 1.84 NY PINE BUSH 3.4 WSW CoCoRaHS 1.81 NY BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 1.80 NY ISLIP TERRACE 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 1.79 NY AMITYVILLE 0.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 1.75 NY SHELTER ISLAND HEIGHTS 2.1 SSW CoCoRaHS 1.75 NJ WESTFIELD 0.6 NE CoCoRaHS 1.74 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 1.74 NY ISLIP TERRACE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 1.69 NY CENTER MORICHES 0.5 N CoCoRaHS 1.68 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 1.60 CT LEDYARD 2.8 NNE CoCoRaHS 1.56 NJ FAIR LAWN 1.2 SE CoCoRaHS 1.52 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 1.52 NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 1.47 NY PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 1.35 NY RIDGE 1.8 SE CoCoRaHS 1.35 NY BLUE POINT 0.4 E CoCoRaHS 1.29 NY REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 1.29 NY LINDENHURST 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 1.25 NY SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 0.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 1.09 NY SAYVILLE CoCoRaHS 1.07 NY SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 1.02 NY CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 0.90 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 0.59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 Looks like the heaviest rains and strongest winds will be further east with the subtropical low looping back into the Cape on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 Generally near normal readings will prevail through the weekend. An offshore system could bring clouds and some showers early next week, but it remains possible that the storm will pass far enough to the east to avoid bringing showers to much of the region. Heat will likely return during the first week in August. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. Some of the extended range guidance suggests that August could be warmer to much warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was -1.17 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.002 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.6° (2.1° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 Bluewave's chart there pretty much says it all. I'm well over 6" and things are generally very healthy rather than moldy and mildewy. I did have to water a few things today, especially the hanging stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Highs: PHL: 89 EWR: 88 New Brnswck: 88 NYC: 87 N TTN: 86 TEB: 86 JFK: 85 ISP: 85 LGA: 85 BLM: 84 ACY: 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Records: Highs: EWR: 101 (2005) NYC: 98 (1963) LGA: 100 (2005) JFK: 97 (1963) Lows: EWR: 57 (1957) NYC: 55 (1920) LGA: 59 (1962) JFK: 59 (2001) Records: 1819: A hurricane affected the coast from Louisiana to Alabama. New Orleans was on the fringe of the storm and suffered no severe damage. Ships at the Balize experienced a strong gale for 24 hours that only grounded three ships. Lakes Pontchartrain and Borgne rose five to six feet during the storm, with farms along the lakes flooded by the storm tide. Forty-one lives were lost on the U.S. Man of War schooner Firebrand, a 150-ton gunship, while it lay off the west end of Cat Island. At 15 least 43 people died in all. 1926 - A hurricane came inland near Daytona Beach, FL. The hurricane caused 2.5 million dollars damage in eastern Florida, including the Jacksonville area. (David Ludlum) 1926: A destructive Category 4 hurricane struck Nassau during the evening hours on the 25th. The hurricane passed just east of Cape Canaveral early on the 28th and made landfall near present-day Edgewater, Florida. 1939 - The temperature at Lewiston, ID, hit 117 degrees to establish an all-time record high for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1943 - On a whim, and flying a single engine AT-6, Lieutenant Ralph O'Hair and Colonel Duckworth were the first to fly into a hurricane. It started regular Air Force flights into hurricanes. (The Weather Channel) 1943: A "surprise," Category 2 Hurricane moved ashore near Galveston, Texas. Due to World War II, all news underwent censorship, including any weather reports making this the surprise storm. The hurricane killed 19 people and caused millions of dollars in damages. Of particular note, Lieutenant Colonel Joe Duckworth and Lieutenant Ralph O'Hair flew an AT-6 Texan into the eye of the hurricane, becoming the first flight into the eye of the storm. 1987 - Thunderstorms in Minnesota spawned a tornado which moved in a southwesterly direction for a distance of thirty miles across Rice County and Goodhue County. Trees were uprooted and tossed about like toys, and a horse lifted by the tornado was observed sailing horizontally through the air. Thunderstorms drenched La Crosse, WI, with 5.26 inches of rain, their second highest 24 hour total of record. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Hot weather prevailed in the north central U.S. Williston, ND, reported a record high of 108 degrees. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the eastern U.S., and in southeastern Texas. Richland County, SC, was soaked with up to 5.5 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in the southwestern U.S. Yuma, AZ, experienced their most severe thunderstorm of record. Strong thunderstorm winds, with unofficial gusts as high as 95 mph, reduced visibilities to near zero in blowing dust and sand. Yuma got nearly as much rain in one hour as is normally received in an entire year. The storm total of 2.55 inches of rain was a record 24 hour total for July. Property damage due to flash flooding and high winds was in the millions. (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Wisconsin and northern Illinois to New England, with 103 reports of large hail and damaging winds through the day. Thunderstorms in Wisconsin produced hail three inches in diameter near Oshkosh, and wind gusts to 65 mph at Germantown. (The National Weather Summary) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EWR757 Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 11 hours ago, FPizz said: I feel like for the past couple years their temps have been running a little high on sunny days. That's like 4 miles from me and is usually the highest temp in the area. @mgerb , have you ever noticed that or am I just wrong haha. The siting for both Duke and SMQ is decent. They are both very similar to each other with different temperature sensors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 13 hours ago, FPizz said: I feel like for the past couple years their temps have been running a little high on sunny days. That's like 4 miles from me and is usually the highest temp in the area. @mgerb , have you ever noticed that or am I just wrong haha. Yes, I have noticed and wondered myself. But it's not a new issue. Ever since it was installed, it seems to be a local warm spot on the hottest of days. And often noticeably warmer than New Brunswick (same sensor type, btw). Aside from any sort of subtle senor bias (which I doubt, but can't preclude with 100% certainty), I think it's probably site related, as the station sits on wide open (and often dry) grasslands, whereas New Brunswick tends to be a more foliated environ. But we'll keep an eye on it. FWIW, it was well in line with other area stations today (granted, not a super hot day). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 56 minutes ago, mgerb said: Yes, I have noticed and wondered myself. But it's not a new issue. Ever since it was installed, it seems to be a local warm spot on the hottest of days. And often noticeably warmer than New Brunswick (same sensor type, btw). Aside from any sort of subtle senor bias (which I doubt, but can't preclude with 100% certainty), I think it's probably site related, as the station sits on wide open (and often dry) grasslands, whereas New Brunswick tends to be a more foliated environ. But we'll keep an eye on it. FWIW, it was well in line with other area stations today (granted, not a super hot day). Thanks a lot for the reply. I always keep an eye on the site and compare it to my station and surrounding stations. Sometimes it's in line, but some days it seems a few degrees too high. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EWR757 Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 7 hours ago, FPizz said: Thanks a lot for the reply. I always keep an eye on the site and compare it to my station and surrounding stations. Sometimes it's in line, but some days it seems a few degrees too high. I live 5 miles NE of the sensor. On sunny days I’m about 4-5 degrees cooler, on nights I’m as much as 10 degrees warmer. I live on First Watchung Mountain about 300 ft higher than SMQ and Duke Farms and the climate is considerably different not being in the bottom of the Raritan Valley closer to the river. I personally think Duke Farms and SMQ are accurate. For example, on July 16 (the hottest day of this month), the maximum at Duke was 100, SMQ was 98 and my station on the hill with a lot of trees was 94. From what I’ve seen small changes in vegetation and elevation make a big difference. For example, in the Adirondacks in upstate New York, KSLK and Gabriels (Mesonet) are within 100 ft elevation and 2 miles from each other, but the temperature can vary considerably. Both high quality stations with good siting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Hopefully, that IVT like feature can deliver for you guys in CNJ and you don’t underperform again. But these features can be fickle. So not guarantees just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 74 / 61 - partly cloudy. Should be mainly a nice day - clouds from the cut off backing NW could see clouds E-W later in the day. Mid - upper 80s and to 90 in the warm spots with enough sun. Deal with the systems looping in tomorrow, clouds and showers, then the front Tue into Wed bring additional showers and rain chances. Hotter by Wed (7/31) once we clear the cut off and front. More humid and storm chances the coming weekend but remaining overall warm. Potential heatwave between the 31 and into next week. Debby could form by Wed/THu and threat the EC from FL to the MA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Storms and rain Mon- Tue and convection Fri-Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 48 minutes ago, bluewave said: Hopefully, that IVT like feature can deliver for you guys in CNJ and you don’t underperform again. But these features can be fickle. So not guarantees just yet. models all over the place with the placement of rains-RGEM has almost nothing while the 12K NAM is very wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 80 / 59 NNW wind Can already see clouds rfom the cutoff pushing E-W into and through Long Island 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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