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3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

You may be right

Yeah it's not looking like the big wet week that the models were showing a few days ago. Some spots getting lucky obviously. Some downpours to the north and out on Long Island tonight, but not much during the day tomorrow and right now the models have the round of rain for tomorrow night mostly missing to the south and east.

There will be some activity on Thursday but it isn't looking that impressive. I hope we get a decent soaking before the dry weather settles in for Friday and the weekend, but it's certainly possible that we'll miss out since it's only widely scattered activity this week. 

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Over an inch in spots with the heavy downpours.

 

Daily Precipitation Report  
Station Number: NJ-BG-60 Station Name: Montvale 1.8 ESE
Observation Date 7/23/2024 8:00 AM
Submitted 7/23/2024 7:28 AM
Gauge Catch 1.32 in.
Notes --

 

Daily Precipitation Report  
Station Number: NJ-MS-102 Station Name: Chatham 0.6 NE
Observation Date 7/23/2024 7:00 AM
Submitted 7/23/2024 7:09 AM
Gauge Catch 1.22 in.
Notes --
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9 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah it's not looking like the big wet week that the models were showing a few days ago. Some spots getting lucky obviously. Some downpours to the north and out on Long Island tonight, but not much during the day tomorrow and right now the models have the round of rain for tomorrow night mostly missing to the south and east.

There will be some activity on Thursday but it isn't looking that impressive. I hope we get a decent soaking before the dry weather settles in for Friday and the weekend, but it's certainly possible that we'll miss out since it's only widely scattered activity this week. 

A repeat of 2 weeks ago  Initial forecasts for a wet week, then essentially just a few scattered showers?

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Records: 7/22

Highs:

EWR: 108 (2011)
NYC: 104 (2011)
LGA: 104 (2011)
JFK: 103 (2011)


Lows:

EWR 56 (1944)
NYC: 58 (1890)
LGA: 62 (1956)
JFK: 59 (1966)


Historical:

 

1918 - A single bolt of lightning struck 504 sheep dead in their tracks at the Wasatch National Forest in Utah. Sheep often herd together in storms, and as a result the shock from the lightning bolt was passed from one animal to another. (David Ludlum)

1986 - Hurricane Estelle passed 120 miles south of the Hawaiian Islands creating a ten to twenty foot surf. The large swells resulted from a combination of high tides, a full moon, and 50 mph winds. The hurricane also deluged Oahu Island with as much as 6.86 inches of rain on the 24th and 25th of the month. (Storm Data)

1987 - Barrow, AK, receives 1.38 inches in 24 hours on the 21st and 22nd, an all-time record for that location. The average annual precipitation for Barrow is just 4.75 inches. Thunderstorms in Montana produced 4 to 6 inches of rain in Glacier County causing extensive flooding along Divide Creek. Missoula, MT, received 1.71 inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the month of July. (The National Weather Summary) (The Weather Channel)

1988 - Six cities in the south central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Pueblo, CO, with a reading of 48 degrees. Thunderstorms over the Atlantic Coast Region drenched Wilmington, NC, with 6.49 inches of rain in about eight hours. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms prevailed across the southeastern third of the country. Afternoon thunderstorms in Florida produced wind gusts to 86 mph at Zephyrhills, and gusts to 92 mph at Carrollwood and Lutz. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 69 mph at Crystal Lake damaged nineteen mobile homes. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1993: The levee, holding back the flooding Mississippi River at Kaskaskia, Illinois, ruptures, forcing the town's people to flee on barges. The incident at Kaskaskia was the most dramatic event of the flood. At 9:48 a.m., the levee broke, leaving the people of Kaskaskia with no escape route other than two Army Corp of Engineers barges. By 2 p.m., the entire town was underwater.

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75 / 71  cloudy.  Scattered showers today, some breaks in the clouds and a warm/muggy mid - upper 80s.  Hung up front next 3 days clouds and chance at more heavier rains.   Clear and dry out by Fri (7/26) and through the weekend, warming by  Sat (7/27) and  Sun (7/28). Ridge and heat expanding north and a hotter look by Mon (7/29) and beyond.  Onshore component of ridge position favors inland nd northern heat initially with flow turning and stronger heat reaching the area.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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Looks like the pattern will dry out before the weekend. Drier weather expected after Thursday. Then Canadian high pressure for the weekend with more comfortable temperatures than the month to date.

 

IMG_0593.thumb.png.b7ad70565086325392798290f0110123.png
 

IMG_0595.thumb.png.4057a89dc8d6c2de5dcbabc8bd6ed18f.png


IMG_0596.thumb.png.75ef86b5ac0973661a03c2615954a5dc.png

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2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

A repeat of 2 weeks ago  Initial forecasts for a wet week, then essentially just a few scattered showers?

The forecast for 2 weeks ago was a TOTAL BUST.  Below was the forecast for this week.  I'll let the panel decide...

Zone Forecast Product
National Weather Service New York NY
501 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024

NYZ072-220500-
New York (Manhattan)-
501 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024

.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Southwest winds
5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Humid with highs in the mid 80s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of rain 20 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers with a slight
chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with
a slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Humid with lows
in the lower 70s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.TUESDAY...Cloudy. Showers likely with a slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid with highs in the upper
80s. Southeast winds around 5 mph, becoming south in the
afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in
the evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms after midnight. Humid with lows in the lower 70s.
South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning, then
showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. Showers likely with a chance of
thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers after
midnight. Lows in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
.THURSDAY...Cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning, then
showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 60 percent. Heat index
values in the upper 90s.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely with a chance of
thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers after
midnight. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of showers in the morning. Highs
in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
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1 hour ago, MANDA said:

 A whopping .26" overnight.  I'll take it but I sure would like more.  Not likely today and not so sure about tonight either.

Only 0.06" here overnight. We'll have to see about the potential batch of rain for late tonight into tomorrow morning. Hopefully we'll get some, but for this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon it's looking dry for most of the area. Activity with the front Thursday doesn't look impressive at all.

I know Long Island got lucky yesterday and last night, but other than that this week is looking like a bust. As Dark Star said, it's looking like 2 weeks ago when the forecast was for a very wet week but we ended up getting very little. Right now I'm just hoping we have a little batch of rain early tomorrow morning that's just enough to give the garden a watering. 

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3 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Only 0.06" here overnight. We'll have to see about the potential batch of rain for late tonight into tomorrow morning. Hopefully we'll get some, but for this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon it's looking dry for most of the area. Activity with the front Thursday doesn't look impressive at all.

I know Long Island got lucky yesterday and last night, but other than that this week is looking like a bust. As Dark Star said, it's looking like 2 weeks ago when the forecast was for a very wet week but we ended up getting very little. Right now I'm just hoping we have a little batch of rain early tomorrow morning that's just enough to give the garden a watering. 

Upton's forecast looks way too bullish based on model output 

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