donsutherland1 Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 Generally fair and near normal readings will prevail through the week. Some showers or thundershowers could become likely toward midweek. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. Some of the extended range guidance suggests that August could be warmer to much warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was -5.11 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.152 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.1° (2.6° above normal). That would tie 2024 with 1993 as the 7th hottest July on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 89 today, fucking perfect day on the water 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 Highs: New Brnswck: 92 TEB: 92 EWR: 89 TTN: 88 PHL: 88 NYC: 88 LGA: 87 BLM: 86 JFK: 86 ISP: 86 ACY: 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 16 hours ago, Dark Star said: Amazing. Newark usually is one of the "hot spots" but it is east enough for sea breeze effects. JFK has only been able to make it to 91° which is the 6th coolest max by July 21st. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1948-07-21 85 198 2 2009-07-21 86 0 3 1951-07-21 87 2 4 1967-07-21 89 0 5 2023-07-21 90 0 - 2007-07-21 90 0 - 1979-07-21 90 0 - 1972-07-21 90 0 - 1960-07-21 90 1 6 2024-07-21 91 0 - 2014-07-21 91 0 - 2004-07-21 91 0 - 1985-07-21 91 0 - 1976-07-21 91 0 - 1975-07-21 91 0 - 1973-07-21 91 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 74 / 67 looks like 4 days of clouds got in the way, rain / storm chances each day and a 4 day total that should see a widespread >1-3 inches and higher in some spots. Atlantic ridge keeping a hung out boundary / front nearby with numerous popup slow moving showers/rain. Some breaks in the clouds Tue could push it near 90 but looks cloudy and humid. Rain focus on Mon PM - night / Wed. Beyond there as we head into this weekend Fri (7/26) drier but still wouldnt think we have a completely dry weekend. Hotter look once to the 29th as more stronger heat from the west pushes north and east. Onshore component / southerly flow keeps it humid with rain chances - not a dry pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 A few slow moving rains and totals will be higher, locally 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 So, when do we see the sun again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 53 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: So, when do we see the sun again? it's partly sunny here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 Looks like another over the top warm up day 8-14 on the EPS. So the West and Canada will warm up first. So it may take a few days after for the warmest temperatures to work down into our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 Wildfire smoke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 50 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: it's partly sunny here skeptical, since we saw a similar pattern disappear 2 weeks ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 5 hours ago, bluewave said: JFK has only been able to make it to 91° which is the 6th coolest max by July 21st. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1948-07-21 85 198 2 2009-07-21 86 0 3 1951-07-21 87 2 4 1967-07-21 89 0 5 2023-07-21 90 0 - 2007-07-21 90 0 - 1979-07-21 90 0 - 1972-07-21 90 0 - 1960-07-21 90 1 6 2024-07-21 91 0 - 2014-07-21 91 0 - 2004-07-21 91 0 - 1985-07-21 91 0 - 1976-07-21 91 0 - 1975-07-21 91 0 - 1973-07-21 91 0 Was there a period where JFK was using hourly obs and had no inter hour (low/highs) earlier this month and part of June? I noticed on the website i follow until last Thu or Fri, it was not reporting the 6 hour inter hour maxes and mins. The persistent and dominant southerly flow this season the main culprit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 Hoping for a decent amount of rain this week since the soil has dried out again. The vegetable gardens could use a drink. Then looking forward to the big humidity drop at the end of the week with dewpoints going back down to the 50s for Friday and Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 Swingggg and a miss on storm one. #rocklandstormdome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 7 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Swingggg and a miss on storm one. #rocklandstormdome edit another developing just south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tristateweatherFB Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 8 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Swingggg and a miss on storm one. #rocklandstormdome Doesn’t look like that on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 Storms firing off to my North and southwest. Fingers crossed we get something. I really don't want to water my gardens tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 I got a little rain from that near HPN - for 10 mins and some rumbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 .80 in 30 minutes in Morristown area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Looks like another over the top warm up day 8-14 on the EPS. So the West and Canada will warm up first. So it may take a few days after for the warmest temperatures to work down into our area. Another? We haven't seen this pattern much at all this summer. The highest heat anomalies have been over the Mid Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 Unf'ing real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said: Another? We haven't seen this pattern much at all this summer. The highest heat anomalies have been over the Mid Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and Southeast. Yes. The summer pattern started over the top with the warmest departures up in Canada June 1st to 15th. Then our area got the stronger heat later in the month as the warmth eventually worked down into our area. July reverted back to the recent multiyear pattern of cool in the Midwest and warmth along both coasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 Near normal readings will prevail through the week. Showers and thundershowers are likely tonight through Thursday. There is some potential that the month could end on a hot note. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. Some of the extended range guidance suggests that August could be warmer to much warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was +5.35 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.325 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.1° (2.6° above normal). That would tie 2024 with 1993 as the 7th hottest July on record. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 Just trace of rainfall here today. Skunked so far. Some places did well but not widespread coverage. Hoping for something decent over the next 2-3 days....at least an inch I hope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 22 Share Posted July 22 Expecting little rain this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 22 Author Share Posted July 22 26 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Expecting little rain this week You may be right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 A spritz of rain has fallen by me all day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 Looks like some heavier showers moving onto the south shore. Some light drizzle in the gross humidity earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 On the train, just went through some pretty moderate rain through Queens Village area. Appears to be some stuff on the radar popping up South Shore Farmingdale to Babylon area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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