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Models seeing the stronger Southeast ridge next week than in earlier runs. So this means that the stalled front to the south will come back north. This is when the chances for more widespread heavy convection will return. 70s dew points and 2.00”+ PWATS have been the norm this summer. 

New run

IMG_0566.thumb.png.8cb1e54a93a05162dde95a71830631a9.png

Old run

 

IMG_0567.thumb.png.c7b75ce51d477280b9b803ea20c97b21.png

 

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48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models seeing the stronger Southeast ridge next week than in earlier runs. So this means that the stalled front to the south will come back north. This is when the chances for more widespread heavy convection will return. 70s dew points and 2.00”+ PWATS have been the norm this summer. 

New run

IMG_0566.thumb.png.8cb1e54a93a05162dde95a71830631a9.png

Old run

 

IMG_0567.thumb.png.c7b75ce51d477280b9b803ea20c97b21.png

 

Yes!!!!

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2 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

All obs sites are 55-60 for DP.  Your sensor needs time to dry out or it has dirt around it.

My sprinkler was on this morning, maybe a little bit lingering then?

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Very comfortable with the dew point down to 55 here. Sunshine and mid 80s this afternoon to go along with the low humidity ... a top 10 day of the year. I hope everyone gets outside and enjoys it. 

Did a 4 mile walk on the tow path 

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

I just overheard some people talking. Guy says its such a beautiful day I think we're done with the 90s :lol:

It's funny how dumb the general public is with weather. Like in the winter when they say it's hailing outside when it's really sleeting. 

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1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

It's funny how dumb the general public is with weather. Like in the winter when they say it's hailing outside when it's really sleeting. 

True but it's like who would ever say no more 90s with 6 weeks of summer left and another month of potential heat after that

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

I just overheard some people talking. Guy says its such a beautiful day I think we're done with the 90s :lol:

Not done for sure-remember last year-the hottest weather was early Sept.

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53 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

unusual for you to post such comments you always talking about next few weeks warm to hot...

Splendid day for sure!. The forecast (outside of rain) doesnt have much below normal and continues to look warm - hot as it has been since June.

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Under bright sunshine and low humidity, the temperature rose into the lower and middle 80s in the Middle Atlantic Region. Meanwhile, out west, Seattle recorded its 16th consecutive 80° day. That broke the record of 15 days set during July 30-August 13, 1977 and tied during June 25-July 9, 2015.

Generally fair and somewhat warmer than normal readings will prevail through the weekend. Some showers or thundershowers could become likely toward the middle of next week.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was -30.41 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.241 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.2° (2.7° above normal). That would tie 2024 with 2011 as the 6th hottest July on record.

 

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