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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0548.html

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 548
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   335 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     District Of Columbia
     Delaware
     Central Maryland
     New Jersey
     Southeast New York
     Eastern Pennsylvania
     Northeast Virginia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until
     1000 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

ww0548_radar.gif.b225724b7244a88c9fa7f2dbac12e638.gif

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Radar looks good southeast of us 

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1653
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania into Northern Maryland...New Jersey...and far Southern New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 161835Z - 162030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed later this afternoon for storms capable of 60-70 MPH wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends and short-term WoFS guidance suggests that thunderstorm activity should increase over Central and Eastern Pennsylvania this afternoon, bringing a threat primarily for damaging straight-line winds. These storms are expected to progress eastward into New Jersey and far southern New York.

Surface observations show a hot, dry boundary-layer in place over the highlight area, with surface temperatures in the upper 90s F to low 100s F and dewpoints in the upper 60s F to low 70s F. These conditions have resulted in MLLCL heights of around 2-3 km and low-level lapse rates that are dry adiabatic beneath the LCL. Additionally, the better deep-layer wind shear supportive of organized convection is confined to northern and central PA, suggesting that the primary threat is for damaging winds from disorganized to weakly-organized multi-cell clusters. Weather watch issuance may be needed later this afternoon.
 

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9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like it will make it to 12 years 

 

 

very few areas hit 100 down there 

Looks like the hotter temps were just S of PHL.  I see DC and Baltimore are 103 & some parts of NJ hit 100 as well.

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