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Looks like it's about over. 0.26" here from two quick downpours, about the same amount I got yesterday morning. Not bad. Didn't get the big storm that Allsnow got, but it was enough to give the vegetable garden another decent watering. It was important to get some rain before the big heat the next few days. I'm glad I won't have to water tomorrow. 

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Heat returned to the Middle Atlantic region today. High temperatures included:

Baltimore: 101° (tied record set in 1954)
New York City: 90°
Newark: 90°
Philadelphia: 94°
Washington, DC: 101° (old record: 100°, 1954)

Tomorrow through Wednesday will see very hot and humid conditions. Widespread 95°-100° high temperatures are likely. An approaching cold front could bring heavy thunderstorms to the region during on Wednesday afternoon or evening. Cooler air will arrive afterward.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was -4.68 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.248 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.1° (2.6° above normal). That would tie 2024 with 1993 as the 7th hottest July on record.

 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 102 (1954)
NYC: 100 (1954)
LGA: 99 (1954)
JFK:  95 (1983)


Lows:

EWR: 55 (1940)
NYC: 58 (1926)
LGA:  59 (1940)
JFK: 61 (1999)

HIstorical:

 

1936 - Extreme heat prevailed across the central U.S. as severe drought raged from Texas to the Dakotas. Record high temperatures were established in sixteen states that summer, including readings as high as 120 degrees in the Great Plains Region. On this particular date, afternoon highs for 113 stations across the state of Iowa averaged 108.7 degrees. (David Ludlum)

1957 - Hail, with some stones up to an inch in diameter, covered the ground to a depth of three inches ruining crops in the Bath area of New Hampshire. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Severe thunderstorms in Iowa produced eight inches of golf ball size hail near Grafton, IA, completely stripping corn stalks in the area. Hail caused more than a million dollars damage to crops in Worth County and Mitchell County, and another million dollars damage in Ada County and Crawford County. Unseasonably cool weather prevailed in the Great Plains Region. Eight cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Duluth, MN, with a reading of 37 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in the Northern Atlantic Coast Region during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms also spawned a rather strong tornado near Westtown, NY, and drenched Agawam, MA, with four inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern New Mexico to central Nebraska. One hundred soldiers were injured by flying debris and collapsing tents during a thunderstorm near Trinidad, CO. Thunderstorms in Colorado produced wind gusts to 77 mph at La Junta. Early morning thunderstorms produced torrential rains over parts of Louisiana, with 7.50 inches at Carencro, and 5.85 inches at Morgan City. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1995: On the evening of Friday, July 14th, thunderstorms producing severe weather were occurring over Upper Michigan and adjacent portions of Ontario near Sault Saint Marie. By late evening the storms had evolved into a bowing line just northwest of the Mackinac Bridge. At 10:17 PM EDT, the thunderstorm gust front hit the bridge, and a gust to 90 mph was measured. Sustained winds of 80 mph continued on the bridge for ten more minutes. Thus began the intense "Ontario-Adirondacks Derecho" that would cause hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of damage, several deaths, and many injuries as it raced southeast from the northern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast. 

2005 - Death Valley had 7 consecutive days (July 14-20) with high temperatures equal to or above 125 degrees.

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In case anyone was wondering (from OKX AFD)

A few showers have developed well ahead of an approaching weak shortwave over portions of north central New Jersey early this morning. This activity likely pushes east into NYC and the metro through daybreak and may produce a locally heavy downpour or two before dissipating. Otherwise, a dry and muggy start with temperatures primarily in the 70s, but around 80 across NYC and the urban metro.

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11 hours ago, Allsnow said:

1.24 total here of much needed rain. It probably all came in about 20-30 minutes 

Uadvertised storms..one mid afternoon and one overnight brought over a half inch in my area. Now about 1.5 inches for the last 5 days so it looks like we are in full cutting mode as the weeds esoecially crabgrass will now be non stop til late September 

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78 / 74 clouds moving through.  Hot - mid 90s / upper 90s in the warm spots with enough clearing. Surge of >20C 850MB temps into the area, outside of scattered storms and clouds strong heat (mid- upper 90s, warm spots to 100 or better) the next 60 hours.  Front comes through at some point Wed and pending on that timing temps could push just as hot Wed as Tue.  Storms Wed evening  - Thu AM.   Reprieve from the heat Thu (7/18) - Sat (7/20).  Beyond there overall warm - hot and humid with Atlantic ridge keeping ridging into the EC and also keeping showers and storms frequently.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

Uadvertised storms..one mid afternoon and one overnight brought over a half inch in my area. Now about 1.5 inches for the last 5 days so it looks like we are in full cutting mode as the weeds esoecially crabgrass will now be non stop til late September 

The SPC HREF had the storms in CNJ.

IMG_0501.thumb.jpeg.8d3861a6702a99267f5a0d5aa61f094b.jpeg

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