winterwx21 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 At this point I'd be very happy to get a half inch tomorrow morning to give my vegetable garden a much-needed watering. HRRR on the 0z run is still giving us a pretty good batch of rain for early in the morning. Late tonight into early morning continues to look like our best chance of the week, but this week has been such a disappointment. It certainly wouldn't be a surprise if tomorrow morning disappoints as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 Anyone here a cicada yet? Haven't heard boo yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 3 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Anyone here a cicada yet? Haven't heard boo yet. yep they’re out i think there was more when i was a kid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 I thought it was supposed to rain tonight into tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 Talk about a horribly modeled wet weather week, at least for my area. Every day busted terribly and today was an extreme disappointment with literally nothing to show. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 13 Author Share Posted July 13 Nam is wet again for many 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 Here's the crazy radar estimate precip over the last 24 hours, showing an incredibly steep gradient from flooding rains in SENJ/DE to moderate rains a bit inland from the coast to just east of 95 to essentially nada along and NW of 95, which was not what was forecast. It happens. Models still all over the place for overnight through tomorrow early afternoon, but the NWS is sticking with likely heavy rains (1-2" with locally up to 5") for anyone near, along and SE of 95. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 930 PM, starting to see some increase in shower activity from the south and southwest. The water vapor imagery shows an impulse moving up across the eastern Carolinas and eastern Virginia, and this feature should result in additional increases in showers especially overnight into early Saturday morning. Thunder has been rather sparse so far as shower/convection is more low-topped, however the greater chance for some thunder appears to be late tonight when some increased forcing for ascent arrives. Made some additional adjustments to the PoPs given trends and continued with the idea of a slower thunder mention northward. Otherwise, a front has lifted northward into the area from the coast. Bermuda high pressure will continue to advect a ribbon of rich tropical moisture back into the region along and south of this front as well. Meanwhile, a broad jet located to our northeast will result in broad diffluence aloft, strengthening through Saturday. Meanwhile, a closed upper low is passing by just offshore. PWats remain around 2-2.5", near climatological maxima, along with MUCAPE near 1,000 J/kg. The more robust showers and thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall, with rainfall rates of 1-2+ inches per hour. The threat for severe thunderstorms is very low. With all the cloud cover and moisture around tonight, temperatures will remain quite mild, with lows ranging from the low to mid 70s. Light southerly winds through Saturday, though winds will become light and variable at times. Guidance continues to pinpoint the heaviest rainfall potential from across portions of Delmarva and into the urban corridor through early Saturday afternoon. An additional wave of widespread heavy showers and some thunderstorms is expected to impact this area beginning around daybreak Saturday through around midday. Widespread rainfall amounts near 1-2" can be expected, with locally higher amounts up to 5" possible. While much of the area has been dry recently, the rainfall rates may lead to some areas of flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. The Flood Watch remains in effect as previously issued through 2 PM Saturday to highlight this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 41 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Anyone here a cicada yet? Haven't heard boo yet. In NJ They started around the 26th of June and more and more each day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 43 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Anyone here a cicada yet? Haven't heard boo yet. Yes, heard them several times over the last month in Bergen County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam is wet again for many Both NAM models went nuts for early tomorrow morning. It would be great to make up for the disappointing week with a deluge tomorrow morning, but who knows. HRRR has a decent batch of rain but nothing like the NAM models. I don't trust those overhyping NAM models, but I don't trust the inconsistent HRRR too. It'll be interesting to see what happens, but I'll be very irritated if we don't at least get a decent half inch soaking. We really need some rain before the big heat wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 13 Author Share Posted July 13 7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Both NAM models went nuts for early tomorrow morning. It would be great to make up for the disappointing week with a deluge tomorrow morning, but who knows. HRRR has a decent batch of rain but nothing like the NAM models. I don't trust those overhyping NAM models, but I don't trust the inconsistent HRRR too. It'll be interesting to see what happens, but I'll be very irritated if we don't at least get a decent half inch soaking. We really need some rain before the big heat wave. Radar's going to have to start blossoming soon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 36 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Talk about a horribly modeled wet weather week, at least for my area. Every day busted terribly and today was an extreme disappointment with literally nothing to show. Got a tiny bit in Garwood, but yes, this week's forecast from Tuesday eve on was a total miss... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 Highs: TEB: 87 LGA: 86 EWR: 85 NYC: 84 New Brnswck: 83 TTN: 82 JFK: 82 ISP: 82 BLM: 81 PHL: 80 ACY: 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 Records: Highs: EWR: 99 (2011) NYC: 99 (1966) LGA: 98 (1966) JFK: 98 (2011) Lows: EWR: 52 (1945) NYC: 57 (1926) LGA: 58 (1940) JFK: 58 (1973) Historical: 1951 - The Kaw River flood occurred. The month of June that year was the wettest of record for the state of Kansas, and during the four days preceding the flood much of eastern Kansas and western Missouri received more than ten inches of rain. Flooding in the Midwest claimed 41 lives, left 200 thousand persons homeless, and caused a billion dollars property damage. Kansas City was hardest hit. The central industrial district sustained 870 million dollars property damage. (The Kansas City Weather Alamnac) 1980 - Lightning struck a large broiler house in Branford, FL, and the ensuing fire broiled 11,000 nearly ready broilers. Firemen were able to save a few thousand chickens, however. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Cool air invaded the High Plains Region. Eight cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Sheridan, WY, with a reading of 37 degrees. Thunderstorms developing along the cold front in the central U.S. produced 6.5 inches of rain at Fort Dodge, IA, and 2.5 inches in one hour at St. Joseph MO. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather over the Dakotas, including baseball size hail at Aberdeen, SD, and softball size hail near Fullerton, ND. Thunderstorms produced heavy rain in Arkansas and northeastern Texas, with 6.59 inches reported at Mesquite, TX, in just an hour and fifteen minutes. Garland, TX, reported water up to the tops of cars following a torrential downpour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Early morning thunderstorms over eastern Kansas deluged McFarland with more than six inches of rain. Afternoon thunderstorms in Wyoming produced up to eighteen inches of dime size hail near Rock Springs, along with torrential rains, and a three foot high wall of mud and water swept into the town causing more than 1.5 million dollars damage. Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Oklahoma and Arkansas, deluging Dardanelle, AR, with 3.50 inches of rain in less than twenty minutes. About seventy cows were killed when lightning struck a tree in Jones County, TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1995: An intense heat wave affected much of the Midwest for a 4-day period beginning on this day. The worst effects of the heat were noted in the Chicago metropolitan area, where 583 people died from the heat. Temperatures across the region reached as high as 104 degrees, overnight lows on falling to the upper 70s to low 80s. Dew point temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s created heat indexes peaking at 125 degrees. Electricity and water usage reached record levels, causing periodic outages. 1996: Hurricane Bertha makes landfall near Wrightsville Beach, NC with maximum winds of 105 mph, but the storm surge dealt the most devastation. The U.S. Virgin Islands, along with North Carolina, were declared federal disaster areas. Surveys indicate that Bertha damaged almost 2,500 homes on St. Thomas and St. John. For many, it was the second hit in the ten months since Hurricane Marilyn devastated the same area. The primary effects in North Carolina were to the coastal counties and included storm surge flooding and beach erosion, roof damage, piers washed away, fallen trees and damage to crops. Over 5,000 homes were damaged, mostly from storm surge. Storm total rainfall amounts ranged from 5 to 8 inches along a coastal strip from South Carolina to Maine. Overall, as many as 12 deaths resulted with 8 in the U.S. and territories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 I got drizzle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 Nothing since 830am yesterday. Radar just keeps drying up as it moves north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 26 minutes ago, steve392 said: Nothing since 830am yesterday. Radar just keeps drying up as it moves north. Bust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 13 Author Share Posted July 13 Radar looks good for east of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 Bust 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 Rain on weekend theme continues since March 1st as the record 603 dam WAR weakened enough since yesterday to allow the heavier rains into NYC and Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 actually raining in the city..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 15 minutes ago, nycwinter said: actually raining in the city..... 1.52” in the last hour at the Manhattan mesonet. https://www.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 Ripping here in Yonkers since about 5:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 Nothing here, very hit it miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 Collosal bust by models and mets ..09 IMBY 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 8 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Ripping here in Yonkers since about 5:45 0.03 here just to your NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 3 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: Collosal bust by models and mets ..09 IMBY Yup. Embarrassing 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 53 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Bust Huge. Congrats out east Best bet now is late Wednesday with string front coming through. HRRR was dry at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 74 / 72 with 0.39 in the bucket. Rain / showers look to persist through the afternoon beofore drying and ending tonight. Hot Sun (7/14) - Wed (7/17), peaking Tue with upper 90s and perhaps higher in the warmer spots NE-/CNJ. Storms potential Mom PM and with the front on Wed evening. Break in the heat Thu - next weekend before warming by the following early week. Overall warm beyond there with ridging into the WC and EC and pieces of western heat coming east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 Cloudburst out here in East Northport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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