bluewave Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam lol https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/environmental-modeling-center/fv3-convective-allowing-forecast-system NAM development was frozen after the March 2017 upgrade, and RAP/HRRR development with the WRF-ARW model will cease after the RAPv5/HRRRv4 upgrade in 2020. However, operational execution of these modeling and associated DA systems will continue until comparable FV3-based systems are able to give similar performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 this has been poorly modeled-radar/now cast will do best. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: this has been poorly modeled-radar/now cast will do best. The heaviest for places like LI and Southern CT will probably be from tonight into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Hmmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 High PWATS for weeks now and very little to show for it in the rain department 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Things looked so promising in the morning and then that was it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Things looked so promising in the morning and then that was it let's see what happens maybe those returns over S NJ hold together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 A more concentrated area of rainfall is ongoing over Southern VA and Eastern NC. It is moving north. Maybe that is what NWS/WPC is thinking with Flood Watches and Excessive outlook. Radar looks unimpressive for most over the next several hours except SE NJ which has been soaked already today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 18Z RGEM is very wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Just now, Brian5671 said: 18Z RGEM is very wet Tell that to the people in NW NJ. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 The action in eastern NC/VA is what gets us later if the RGEM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: Tell that to the people in NW NJ. The western solutions disappears a day or two ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 I will tell you one thing. Whatever areas get in on the rain it's going to come down in buckets. It is very muggy out there. Current temp 85/DP 77/RH 76% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The western solutions disappears a day or two ago Well if thats the case then the WPC wouldn't have NW NJ in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 5 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Well if thats the case then the WPC wouldn't have NW NJ in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. No model supports the western edge of that...it's mainly I-95 and SE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Little cell. Deluge On and off rain all day here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 12 Author Share Posted July 12 A heavy sprinkle just went through 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 oh man i have got to stop watching this awful radar. like watching santa crash his sleigh on the roof of your house and falling off over and over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Radar continues to looks awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 If this was snow OMG. A preview of the NYC metro watching Monmouth County NJ on south getting a blizzard while we get skunked this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 12 Author Share Posted July 12 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Radar continues to looks awful The low is starting to get captured. Precip should start to rotate in off the ocean. Oh wait wrong storm 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: The low is starting to get captured. Precip should start to rotate in off the ocean. Oh wait wrong storm Did you get that from Joe Bastardi? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 I am still waiting for my precipitation to change over to snow from last winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 look at that monster PRE in E PA 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 It's after midnight for most of us-the HRRR got alot wetter but later 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 Rain and thunderstorms are likely into tomorrow. A general storm total 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely by the time the rain ends tomorrow afternoon. Through 8 pm, Georgetown, DE has picked up 3.76" of rain. That broke that city's daily mark of 3.41" from 2013. Heat will begin to return during on Sunday. Early next week will likely be very hot and humid. The heat will likely crest during Monday through Wednesday. During that time, widespread 95°-100° high temperatures are possible. Cooler air will arrive late in the week. In parts of California, Nevada, and Arizona, a severe long-duration and dangerous heatwave continues. Las Vegas recorded its record 7th consecutive 115° day. Boise saw the temperature reach 105° for a record-tying fourth consecutive day. The intense heat will finally recede over the next few days. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was -22.04 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.206 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 79% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.9° (2.4° above normal). That would rank 2024 as the 10th hottest July on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Radar continues to looks awful Yep models backing off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 3 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Tell that to the people in NW NJ. .04 isn't very wet for here but to each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 If this event turns into a dud, it will be bad as my area needs rain. Then another hot spell next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 next week looks miserable this is the coldest summer of the rest of your life 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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