Rtd208 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Nice, consistent guidance from the regional, shorter term models. Deluge on the 12Z NAM from 8 am to 2 pm tomorrow vs. a few nuisance showers on the RGEM (RDPS). Makes for easy forecasting, lol. Like most, hoping for the RGEM to be right - have a disc golf tourney tomorrow at Rutgers (50th annual Jersey Jam) and DG in the rain sucks. The models have been horrible IMO. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: going to be a big bust for areas well north and west that looked to jackpot a day or two ago. Not saying ukie is right but then trend is for the heaviest amounts along the I95 corridor on eastward I'm starting to brace myself for under 1". Will see what radar looks like this evening and go from there but trend has been for along I-95 and south and east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 11 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: The models have been horrible IMO. was just thinking about how annoying they’ve been this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 25 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: The models have been horrible IMO. This was supposed to be a NW hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Imagine that with a snow storm.... I don't have to imagine it, I've lived it... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 New daily record high PWAT at OKX of 2.39 is 7th highest measured value. The environment across the region is extremely supportive of heavy rainfall, with PWs measured by morning U/A sounding reaching 2 to 2.3 inches (2.39 inches, a daily record at OKX) with coincident MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Max Values 08/19/1955 (03Z)2.62 in09/07/2008 (00Z)2.47 in07/23/2018 (12Z)2.45 in07/18/2019 (12Z)2.44 in08/11/2016 (12Z)2.41 in08/05/2010 (12Z)2.41 in08/19/2021 (12Z)2.40 in08/12/2016 (12Z)2.40 in07/18/2005 (12Z)2.40 in 07/12/2024(12z)2.39 in08/13/2016 (00Z)2.38 in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Quick half inch here with those storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Big bust on the rain today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Big bust on the rain today yes and no, most of the rainfall is expected over night, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 12 Author Share Posted July 12 6 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: yes and no, most of the rainfall is expected over night, no? Most models had some activity this afternoon with the heaviest at night into tomorrow morning. Latest hrrr has very little thru 6am now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Big bust on the rain today Hopefully it's coming for tomorrow morning, but I'm starting to become a little worried that this is an event mainly for the coast with only spotty activity to the north and west. It's very dry here, so it's going to be rough if we don't get any significant rain before the big heat wave. I'm still fairly optimistic about tomorrow morning, but we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 12 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: yes and no, most of the rainfall is expected over night, no? The rain shield has shifted east with a big cutoff to the north of NYC. I had some showers this morning but dry now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 LMAO! I trust the HRRR about as much as a wet fart. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Never even heard tge rain this morning. Picked up 1/4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Radar looks iffy for anything this PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 23 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: LMAO! I trust the HRRR about as much as a wet fart. This looks more realistic than the others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Some breaks in the clouds and up to 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzLuv Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 53 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Big bust on the rain today I held off fertilizing the lawn in anticipation of 2-4 inches of rain and possibility that the fertilizer is mostly washed away. I maybe should have gone ahead and fertilized. We have had two very light rains all since Tuesday. Today's was more a misting and sprinkles. I guess we will see what happens overnight, we could use some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 34 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: LMAO! I trust the HRRR about as much as a wet fart. Radar looks awful for much more outside of S NJ. So it might well be on point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 just evaporates north of Atlantic City/Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Radar looks awful for much more outside of S NJ. So it might well be on point. The point of my post is not that what it is showing is wrong but how it can have such wild swings from run to run. I am not a fan of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 48 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The rain shield has shifted east with a big cutoff to the north of NYC. I had some showers this morning but dry now. Out east of Central Suffolk there has been plenty of rain which was not supposed to maintain itself all day as stationary front was expected to move northwest. Nope. Central Suffolk and east have seen plenty of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 18z run of HRRR still has a decent amount of activity for tomorrow morning. Hopefully it will be a case of delayed but not denied for heavy rain this week. It has been a little frustrating having to wait this long, since originally it appeared that we'd have good rain chances for most of the week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Woodbine, NJ has been the rainfall leader across the area since June 30th with 5.26” for this event so far and a total of 11.69”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Yeah this sucked. At least it's cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 12 Author Share Posted July 12 Nam lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam lol NAM 3km says Middlesex County is gonna get hit hard with 1 to 2 inches of rain over the next couple hours, lol. I'll just assume it's wrong. That's an insane overhyping model. I remember on 4th of July night it had some areas getting 6 to 9 inches of rain, when in fact it was only a quarter to half inch in spots. Horrible model. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 12 Author Share Posted July 12 Just now, winterwx21 said: NAM 3km says Middlesex County is gonna get hit hard with 1 to 2 inches of rain over the next couple hours, lol. I'll just assume it's wrong. That's an insane overhyping model. I remember on 4th of July night it had some areas getting 6 to 9 inches of rain, when in fact it was only a quarter to half inch in spots. Horrible model. But even the regular nam just went from 1 to 2 to half an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: But even the regular nam just went from 1 to 2 to half an inch Yeah both NAM models are bad. HRRR is bad. Who knows. All we can do it keep an eye on radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now