winterwarlock Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 missed out on any rain this morning and now sun poking out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Looks we will get another chance for decent rains with the cold front as the next heatwave peaks by Wednesday into Thursday. Rain / storm chances Monday evening as well could have some local strong storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 5 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Rain / storm chances Monday evening as well could have some local strong storm. We will have to rely on fronts and high dew point convection for our rainfall into late July as the tropics go quiet for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The GFS has 100° heat potential early next week before we get a relaxation of the heat for a bit. Looks like the Ambrose Jet is muted in this next heatwave so if we can maintain a more westerly flow it can be in the upper 90s east of the city too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Heaviest rain/storms over DE/ near Cape May in Southern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 12 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Looks like the Ambrose Jet is muted in this next heatwave so if we can maintain a more westerly flow it can be in the upper 90s east of the city too. Yeah, the hi res GFS has 95° to 100° heat potential from Huntington to Commack. But we’ll need to get close to full sun to have a shot at those temperatures. Probably have to wait another day or two to see what models come up with on sky conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 12 Author Share Posted July 12 Nam is really wet now. Most of this not until after midnight and tomorrow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam is really wet now. Most of this not until after midnight and tomorrow Nothing much after 18z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Nothing much after 15z on this model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Just 0.02" here this morning. Very dry here, so I'm really hoping we get a significant amount of rain today or tomorrow. Probably going to be hit or miss with this event though, with some areas getting 3 inches of rain while others get less than a half inch. Hoping to get lucky here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Radar looks pretty good, but I see latest HRRR says those downpours to the south are gonna weaken and just be showers by the time they get up here. HRRR is a wildly inconsistent model though, so who knows. Would like to see heavy rain this afternoon, but maybe we'll have to wait until tonight or tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 12 Author Share Posted July 12 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Radar looks pretty good, but I see latest HRRR says those downpours to the south are gonna weaken and just be showers by the time they get up here. HRRR is a wildly inconsistent model though, so who knows. Would like to see heavy rain this afternoon, but maybe we'll have to wait until tonight or tomorrow. It's rare to see heavy rain coming up from the south weaken like that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 13 hours ago, JetsPens87 said: Wouldn't be surprised to see some training convection in this instance 51 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Slow moving front as @bluewave called out butted up against record WAR was an easy recipe for this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 54 minutes ago, FPizz said: Nothing much after 15z on this model Can tell you're rooting for the rain end early tomorrow so it doesn't mess of your son's graduation party! I see 12z RGEM has it mainly over by late morning as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Water vapor loop shows nice south to north transport of tropical moisture. Pretty rare to see flow almost straight south to north. Most places should get some needed rains but some places will get drenched with training. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop180w.html 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Can tell you're rooting for the rain end early tomorrow so it doesn't mess of your son's graduation party! I see 12z RGEM has it mainly over by late morning as well. Yes! I don't mind the soaking as long as it is done by 12 or so. Most models minus the one NAM so far have it ending around noonish. I'd take a nice 1-1.5" before then though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 I 95 special on the RGEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I 95 special on the RGEM Hopefully it’s correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 it looked like a fall day when i went outside this morning there were leaves down everywhere something you do not expect in mid july.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Nice, consistent guidance from the regional, shorter term models. Deluge on the 12Z NAM from 8 am to 2 pm tomorrow vs. a few nuisance showers on the RGEM (RDPS). Makes for easy forecasting, lol. Like most, hoping for the RGEM to be right - have a disc golf tourney tomorrow at Rutgers (50th annual Jersey Jam) and DG in the rain sucks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 On and off showers here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Drenching in Melville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 just a light shower thus far today, trickle in the bucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 Ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 I’m in East Northport today. Heavy rain and thunder rolling in currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 12 Author Share Posted July 12 6 minutes ago, FPizz said: Ukie going to be a big bust for areas well north and west that looked to jackpot a day or two ago. Not saying ukie is right but then trend is for the heaviest amounts along the I95 corridor on eastward 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 1 hour ago, nycwinter said: it looked like a fall day when i went outside this morning there were leaves down everywhere something you do not expect in mid july.. Don't forget to wear your raincoat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 15 minutes ago, FPizz said: Ukie Imagine that with a snow storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now