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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 12z Euro has close to the all-time 500 mb height record this week at 602 dam for the North Atlantic. It also has a PWAT plume near 2.5” squeezed between the ridge and Beryl to the west. The all-time measured PWAT record for our area is 2.62” with Hurricane Diane in 1955.


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Max Values08/19/1955 (03Z)2.62

in09/07/2008 (00Z)2.47

in07/23/2018 (12Z)2.45

in07/18/2019 (12Z)2.44

in08/11/2016 (12Z)2.41

in08/05/2010 (12Z)2.41

in08/19/2021 (12Z)2.40 

Humid yes but rain looks west

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58 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I went for a run after the Mets game ended, and that breeze along with the dewpoint down at 66 made it feel pretty good for running despite a temp of 93. So much better today than the last few days, but of course we'll be going back to the super high humidity during the week. 

 Dew points on the island never came down. Mid 70s all day. Currently 75 at FRG and 74 at ISP. Swampy 

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Heatwave over? 

Not IMBY according to Upton

Tonight

Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Calm wind. 

Monday

Sunny, with a high near 92. Calm wind. 

Monday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Calm wind. 

Tuesday

A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 102. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. 

Tuesday Night

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. South wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. 

Wednesday

A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. 

Wednesday Night

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

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The temperature again rose into the 90s in parts of the Middle Atlantic region. High temperatures included:

Baltimore: 97°
New York City: 93°
Newark: 94°
Philadelphia: 95°
Washington, DC: 97°

The very warm and humid weather will prevail inro the middle of the week with temperatures generally running several degrees above normal. The latter part of the week could turn slightly cooler.

In parts of California, Nevada, and Arizona, a severe long-duration and dangerous heatwave continues. Redding, CA tied its record of three consecutive 115° or above days following yesterday's all-time high of 119°. Las Vegas decimated its all-time record of 117° with a high of 120°. Daggett, CA tied its all-time mark of 118°. Twentynine Palms also tied its all-time mark of 118°. Death Valley topped out at 129°.

Severe heat appears unlikely in the East during at least the first half of July.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.4°C for the week centered around June 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was +4.99 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.429 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.5° (2.0° above normal).

 

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I'll admit though, these numbers feel off since it's really not that much warmer than many recent summers. So I propose a better way is to compare current summers in Newark to historical summers in Raleigh-Durham. And recent summers at the park in New York City to historical summers in Richmond, Virginia. But in each case, we should limit the comparisons to years before 2001, since those locations have been putting up video game numbers in recent years.

When we do that, we see New York City is currently in 36th place [out of 105 years]. And Newark is currently in 14th place [out of 115 years].

Alternatively, we can use a computer model to simulate future years between 2050 and 2100, and limit our comparison to the simulated data, and this very well might be the coldest summer of record.

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Records:


Highs:

EWR: 103 (1993)
NYC: 100 (2010)
LGA: 101 0(2010)
JFK: 100 (2010)


Lows:

EWR: 57 (1940)
NYC: 56 (1914)
LGA:  59 (1972)
JFK: 56 (1965)

Historical:

 

1905 - The mercury soared to 127 degrees at Parker, AZ, to tie the state record established at Fort Mohave on the 15th of June in 1896. (The Weather Channel)

1905: The mercury soared to 127 degrees at Parker, Arizona to tie the state record established at Fort Mohave on the 15th of June in 1896. The current record for Arizona is 128 degrees set in Lake Havasu City on 6-29-1994.

1915 - A severe wind and thunderstorm caused heavy damage and 38 deaths in and near Cincinnati, OH. Many older buildings were demolished. The steamship Dick Fulton was overturned. (The Weather Channel)

1981 - Montana was in the midst of a snowstorm that dumped ten inches at Glacier National Park, and produced winds to 90 mph. Meanwhile, Denver, CO, set a record high with a reading of 101 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms spawned eight tornadoes in Colorado, and three in West Texas. Thunderstorms also produced softball size hail at Bula, TX. In the midst of a record thirty-nine day string of 100 degree days, the temperature at Tucson, AZ, dipped to 66 degrees, marking their third straight record low for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thirty-eight cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Youngstown, OH, hit 100 degrees, and for the second day in a row, Flint, MI, reached 101 degrees, equalling all-time records for those two cities. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather during the day, with more than 100 reports of large hail and damaging winds from Ohio to Massachusetts and New Hampshire. Thunderstorm winds reached 90 mph in Sullivan County, NH, and golf ball size hail was reported in Pennsylvania. Twenty-four cities, mostly in the southwestern U.S., reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 105 degrees at Cedar City, UT, and 114 degrees at Moab, UT, were all-time records for those locations. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1991: During the early daylight hours of Sunday, July 7, 1991, a bow echo developed over southeast South Dakota and began racing east, producing very damaging winds. This bow echo was the start of a long-lived derecho that lasted 17 hours and affected areas from the Great Plains into western New York and Pennsylvania. Wind gusts in some places reached 80 to 100 mph. The strongest gust, 103 mph, was measured at Sioux Center, Iowa around mid-morning, and the roof of a school was blown off in nearby Orange City. 

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28 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

DT on the rise and up to 73 here in the last 3 hours.   Dense fog forming along the beaches in NJ,

Dense fog rolled in for the finale of the Lavallette fireworks. Went from clear to soup in a few minutes.

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77/74 partly cloudy.  Hot, humid next few days low - mid 90s (pending on sun) with850 mb temps push near 20C Tue, chance for higher temps with enough sun .  Isolated showers today, scattered showers Tue (7/9) with more widespread storms Wed (7/10) - Fri (7/12) as Beryl's remnants pump heat/humidity.  A UL undercutting the Atlantic ridge will further enhance storm chances Thu/Fri as the Atlantic ridge balloons tp0 >600DM and expands >594DM west into the EC. 

Continued hot this weekend into the start of next week.   WC ridge / Atlantic ridge keeping the EC warm - hot and humid. Piece of the strong heat comes east and pending on clouds from Florida style storms.

 

GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

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24 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Both EWR/NYC missed 80 degree lows yesterday 

EWR: 94/79 (+9)
NYC: 94/79 (+9)

BTV has us beat so far in that department.

Data for June 1, 2024 through July 8, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 79
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 79
NJ HARRISON COOP 78
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 78
NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 78
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 76
CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 76
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 75
Data for June 1, 2024 through July 8, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
VT BURLINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 80
NY CANTON 4 SE WBAN 75
NY MALONE COOP 75
VT VERGENNES COOP 75
VT ISLAND POND AP COOP 75

 

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