winterwx21 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: We shall see, yesterday was supposed to have nothing either until we got closer And I see the latest models do have a few pop ups for this afternoon. Probably will be a few areas that get lucky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 It looks like the first storms of the afternoon are trying to develop over western and northwest NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: And I see the latest models do have a few pop ups for this afternoon. Probably will be a few areas that get lucky. Yup, showers developing in western jersey. I wouldn’t bet on staying dry with this type of airmass 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Nice AFD from Upton, X Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1125 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure lingers over the area through Saturday afternoon as a cold front approaches. The front then stalls and lingers into Sunday before dissipating as high pressure builds from the west. Another frontal system approaches early next week with its associated cold front moving in towards midweek. This frontal boundary could very well linger nearby from mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ***Key Points*** 1.) Heat Advisories remains in effect across NE NJ, NYC, N Nassau Co, Lower Hudson Valley and Fairfield Co. Heat index values could reach up to 105F for southern portions of NE NJ. All other areas under the Heat Advisory could see heat indices peak between 98-100F. 2.) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms re-develop this afternoon & evening. Chances look better for western locations. A prefrontal surface trough is expected to linger just west of the Hudson River this afternoon before a weak cold front approaches from the west and slowly passes and stalls tonight. This occurs in tandem with an upper-level trough to our north which weakens through tonight. First round of showers and thunderstorms are moving out east late this morning. CAPEs recuperate this afternoon, especially INVOF NYC metro and areas north and west with partly sunny conditions and a moist boundary layer. SBCAPES of 1500-2500 J/kg anticipated for these areas. With the trough in place and subtle shortwave energy providing some mechanical lift, iso-sct showers and thunderstorms anticipated for approx the western half of the forecast area mid afternoon into early evening. Bulk shear in combination with CAPE is enough for at least some consideration of severe wind gust potential in thunderstorms, mainly NW of NYC where conditions will be slightly more favorable. Freezing/wet-bulb zero heights are rather high, so while hail will be possible given CAPE and shear aloft, chances are it won`t reach severe thresholds. After about 9 or 10pm, most of the shower and thunderstorm activity should be cleared out of the area with a front stalling across the area. Patchy fog may occur with persistent cloud cover across eastern areas, but will mainly depend on where the weak front stalls. Overnight lows will drop into the low/mid-70s. Flash flooding threat remains lows this afternoon into evening. PWATs have lowered to around 1.75" in the area where showers and storms are more likely to occur, and the flow aloft is strong enough to prevent very slow-moving cells. Should training occur, there could be a low threat of flash flooding, but looking at mainly minor urban/poor drainage flooding potential. Dewpoints generally in the mid 70s this afternoon with actual highs in the upper-80s to low-90s in the NYC metro and areas N/W of NYC. The rest of S CT and LI see highs in the mid/low-80s with far eastern areas in the upper-70s for afternoon highs. Heat Advisories remain posted across NE NJ, NYC, N Nassau Co, Lower Hudson Valley and Fairfield Co. Heat index values could reach up to 105F in spots for the urban corridor of NE NJ. All other areas under the Heat Advisory could see heat indices peak between 95-100F. Some guidance appears to veer winds from S to SW late in the day, advecting in drier low-level air. Should this occur earlier than expected, heat advisory criteria may be more on the marginal side for some areas outside of NE NJ, but for now, expecting a later arrival of this drier air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Several stations in NJ are reaching 80+ dewpoints, with HIs already topping 105. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 20 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: It looks like the first storms of the afternoon are trying to develop over western and northwest NJ. Yeah a pretty good downpour moving into Somerset County right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 37 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup, showers developing in western jersey. I wouldn’t bet on staying dry with this type of airmass yep got a decent shower here model bust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Had nearly an inch of rain between all the thunderstorms overnight and this morning. Crazy cracks of thunder woke me from a dead sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 HRRR hitting the same areas now for this evening as yesterday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Just now, Allsnow said: HRRR hitting the same areas now for this evening as yesterday It looks like that downpour in Somerset is going to miss me just to the south but might hit you. It's going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 2nd day in a row with 80° dew points in NJ. https://www.njweather.org/maps/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: It looks like that downpour in Somerset is going to miss me just to the south but might hit you. It's going to be close. Sorry. Looks like to coming directly for me now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Should get a good downpour soon. It's a sauna out there CAPE and shear is pretty high actually right now so more organized convection wouldn't surprise me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 13 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: yep got a decent shower here model bust and just like that in less than 10 minutes its over and we have blue sky for the first time today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 DP 80! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Gfs is wet from midweek through weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 87/75 sheesh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 28 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Sorry. Looks like to coming directly for me now I had a few sprinkles here. I see that cell is going a little more south. Appears to be missing you too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Getting dark here in Freehold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Radar starting to show popup storms over central NJ already. Driving down 95, Newark was just impossible to see from the fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Winds have been so light to add to the heat and humidity... Had a gust to 40 mph here at 6pm yesterday with the t storm... haven't even managed a gust to 10 mph since . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: We may be able to anpproach our all-time PWAT record of 2.62” as the remnant moisture plume from Beryl comes north. Someone might get 10"+ this week. The moisture values are off the charts 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Good amount of CTG lighting strikes with these storms the past few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Decent shower through Old Bridge, NJ. Bout to hit another near Marlboro, nj. It's just disgusting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 this is more uncomfortable than any day from the past two summers 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Someone might get 10"+ this week. The moisture values are off the charts The exact track of the remnants will be important as to where the heaviest axis of rainfall sets up. But this pattern is much more amplified than normal. The 12z GFS is advertising the first 603 dam WAR pattern this week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Good amount of CTG lighting strikes with these storms the past few days i’m jealous, had my camera out and everything but haven’t gotten much Mount Holly’s AFD pointed out the warmth is so deep in the atmosphere the wet-bulb zero is pretty high up, reducing hail growth (and my implication, lightning) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 8 minutes ago, forkyfork said: this is more uncomfortable than any day from the past two summers 78/74. Enjoy your awful weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 the dew point was like 45 a week ago right. does anyone remember that 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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