July 2024 Observations and Discussion

[ma blizzard]

A lot more clouds then I was expecting to start the day

75/72

[forkyfork]

48 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Also, people, it's actually not normal to have constant 90s in the summer - even in hot summers, in much of the northeast.

Looking at ORH airport data only, I can find only 9 years with more 90s at this point in the year (out of 77 years). So only about 1 in 9 summers historically would be expected to have more 90s at this point, and none since 1999.

BTV, dating back to the 1800s, only 9 years have had more 90s at this point. By contrast, 22 years had 0 90s at this point & 40 years had only 1 or fewer.

CON, 8th most dating back to 1869. Only 2 years since 1978 have had more.

It's crazy to me how people have to redefine what a hot summer is to pretend it's not a hot summer.

 

it's funny when the older people in this subforum who have lived through cold summers deny what's happening 

[UnitedWx]

Up this way it's looking like the lawn will have to wait at least another day... lots of clouds with occasional light mist. Great for working outdoors, but not for mowing!

[kdxken]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Also, people, it's actually not normal to have constant 90s in the summer - even in hot summers, in much of the northeast.

Looking at ORH airport data only, I can find only 9 years with more 90s at this point in the year (out of 77 years). So only about 1 in 9 summers historically would be expected to have more 90s at this point, and none since 1999.

BTV, dating back to the 1800s, only 9 years have had more 90s at this point. By contrast, 22 years had 0 90s at this point & 40 years had only 1 or fewer.

CON, 8th most dating back to 1869. Only 2 years since 1978 have had more.

It's crazy to me how people have to redefine what a hot summer is to pretend it's not a hot summer.

 

Yeah, yeah and we were entering an ice age in the 1970s lol. You need to speak with our Climate Czar Mr Wolf. He has assured us that it's happened a million times before. His research can be found In the Snowmobile Chronicles which date all the way back to the 1990s.

[Typhoon Tip]

Despite the sometimes dazzling display of AI it is important to remember, the technology is primitive.   It might be hard to think of it that way when it's mere maiden release might already seem " ... indistinguishable from magic" ( Arthur C. Clarke ), but it's true.   It has to be.  Purely by convention of time, it's been talked about for over a decade, but it's only been 2 or so years since its arrival, and so, so fast, already being entrusted/incorporated.  

So I agree with Brian largely here that we'll be giving it a chance whether we choose to or not.

In part because it really will become 'magical' - for lack of better word.  The obvious, logical evolution will see it wired into this new Quantum Computing technology.  That will be like AI the firecracker, vs Hiroshima

QC will be truly, truly be transformative.

Think of it this way.  The present day mode of computation is performed via transistor tech, which ultimately is constrained by executing 1 or 0.   On vs Off... True vs False.  Every possible solution that may describe a system, thus has to be solved, one at a time.  Granted, doing so at dizzying speeds ( of course! ), but we're still sending electrons along prescribed (fixed) circuiting routes, where there is all kinds of limitations related to ohm resistance, to signal degradation, ... interference - talk to IBM.

But look out!  QC encodes instructions in the momentum of electrons, themselves... There are no such constraints. Suddenly, 1 vs 0 becomes all possible variances that can exist, that can possibly describe an answer for a question/system/problem,  in any facet of nature, explored and bottle-necked to the one remaining truth, all happening       instantly.  There are many problems that present day tech will never ever be able to ultimately solve. Those become rudimentary for QC. 

One might find it just as academic to assume that whatever that means for the future of everyday experience, no one has yet foreseen it.

But, before even getting to that ( not so far off as we may think ...) future whence AI, slaved to QC "brains" ... imposes its will, even in this primitive form, AI is not going away.  That ship's left on this thing when so many different applications are showing whopper quantifiable positives. 

I am sure we are no exceptions to any rule over here... be we are already downloading SW code solutions that are beta-satisfactory virtually out-of-box. SDLC that would quite normally take even rock star engineers the perfunctory 10 days due to collaboration//resource constraints between man and machine to SQA to blah blah blah. The entire life cycle, beta compiled inside of an hour.

10 days            

1 hour       

And, even if only 20 or 30% error tolerance is allowed, we are finding that most if not all of that error was for 'how GPT was engaged' in the first place - perhaps an art emerges there. New job, "GPT configuration engineering" ?

The point is, innovation is already [probably] getting a steroid injection to the point where it's cogs are too deeply embedded in the machinery of society.

Giving this some relevance to this social media ...  guess what this means for weather forecasting?   Guess what it means for the entire engagement.   There will be no point in waiting for model output and the fun of discussion. Lol... you know, we forget that 98 some odd % of walking talking civility is happy about that.

 

[dendrite]

The update I’ve been waiting for. Last night was another nail in the coffin too. 

He chose us this summer. We ask for forgiveness in the emoji we created in His honor. We have begun sacrifices to appease Him...the first being anti Pope Benedet. 
 

 

[powderfreak]

This is wild in the NE Kingdom.

[Patrick-02540]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Despite the sometimes dazzling display of AI it is important to remember, the technology is primitive.   It might be hard to think of it that way when it's mere maiden release might already seem " ... indistinguishable from magic" ( Arthur C. Clarke ), but it's true.   It has to be.  Purely by convention of time, it's been talked about for over a decade, but it's only been 2 or so years since its arrival, and so, so fast, already being entrusted/incorporated.  

So I agree with Brian largely here that we'll be giving it a chance whether we choose to or not.

In part because it really will become 'magical' - for lack of better word.  The obvious, logical evolution will see it wired into this new Quantum Computing technology.  That will be like AI the firecracker, vs Hiroshima

QC will be truly, truly be transformative.

Think of it this way.  The present day mode of computation is performed via transistor tech, which ultimately is constrained by executing 1 or 0.   On vs Off... True vs False.  Every possible solution that may describe a system, thus has to be solved, one at a time.  Granted, doing so at dizzying speeds ( of course! ), but we're still sending electrons along prescribed (fixed) circuiting routes, where there is all kinds of limitations related to ohm resistance, to signal degradation, ... interference - talk to IBM.

But look out!  QC encodes instructions on the momentum of electrons, themselves... There are no such constraints. Suddenly, 1 vs 0 becomes all possible variances that can exist, that can possibly describe an answer for a question/system/problem,  in any facet of nature, are explored and bottle-necked to the one remaining truth, all happening       instantly.  There are many problems that present day tech will never ever be able to ultimately solve. Those become rudimentary for QC. 

One might find it just as academic to assume that whatever that means for the future of everyday experience, no one has yet foreseen it.

But, before even getting to that ( not so far off as we may think ...) future whence AI, slaved to QC "brains" ... imposes its will, even in this primitive form, AI is not going away.  That ship's left on this thing when so many different applications are showing whopper quantifiable positives. 

I am sure we are no exceptions to any rule over here... be we are already downloading SW code solutions that are beta-satisfactory virtually out-of-box. SDLC that would quite normally take even rock star engineers the perfunctory 10 days due to collaboration//resource constraints between man and machine to SQA to blah blah blah. The entire life cycle, beta compiled inside of an hour.

10 days            

1 hour       

And, even if only 20 or 30% error tolerance is allowed, we are finding that most if not all of that error was for 'how GPT was engaged' in the first place - perhaps an art emerges there. New job, "GPT configuration engineering" ?

The point is, innovation is already [probably] getting a steroid injection to the point where it's cogs are too deeply embedded in the machinery of society.

Giving this some relevance to this social media ...  guess what this means for weather forecasting?   Guess what it means for the entire engagement.   There will be no point in waiting for model output and the fun of discussion. Lol... you know, we forget that 98 some odd % of walking talking civility is happy about that.

 

RE: QC- Imagine having models come out every minute.  Or, the model from two weeks ago is dead-on accurate for the event happening tomorrow.  One of the biggest effects of QC will be a reduction in the things that trigger classical human emotion.  

[Torch Tiger]

has crept in here as well. Hard to escape the webbed grip once he's locked in

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

RE: QC- Imagine having models come out every minute.  Or, the model from two weeks ago is dead-on accurate for the event happening tomorrow.  

yup....

I think it will be a fantastic opportunity to explore the edge of reality, whence the as of yet spontaneity of emergent processes ( i.e., 'chaos') that attempt to alter the future, have not occurred along the linearity of common time experience. 

That's a wild, wild implication that "precipitates" ( haha) out of quantum computing. 

We were always taught that model-based weather forecasting had ultimate limitations, utilizing the transistor base computation - but that was based upon being (admittedly) blind to the quantum realm.   That was just 20 some years ago ...

It's like "humanity won't fly" type stuff ... This QC shit is really even beyond that, tho, if you ask me. It's one thing to be able to "sense" flight because you just need wings. But being able to read the mind of god  ( taking a little sci fi poetry license there ) is bit of an upgrade.  Heh

[Ginx snewx]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

But you’re in the Mid Atlantic.

Lol almost same lat is S Weymouth where you live

[Ginx snewx]

8 inches today St Johnsbury horrible floods

[Typhoon Tip]

Tomorrow looks like a low LCL masterpiece.   Convective enthusiasts cringe at the lack of deeper layer kinematics?

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Tomorrow looks like a low LCL masterpiece.   Convective enthusiasts cringe at the lack of deeper layer kinematics?

Sucks bulk shear is pretty meh and of course lapse rates blow, however, rich llvl moisture and decent shortwave moving through...should see scattered thunderstorms tomorrow with a few rogue damaging wind gusts. Flash flooding will be greatest concern in poor drainage areas. 

[CoastalWx]

88/77. COC is back.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

It no longer rains. The lawn has undergone desertification and Shai-Hulud is on the prowl. Spice Melange hangs in summer zephyrs that give no moisture. I'm making a stillsuit in my basement as we speak.

 

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

It no longer rains. The lawn has undergone desertification and Shai-Hulud is on the prowl. Spice Melange hangs in summer zephyrs that give no moisture. I'm making a stillsuit in my basement as we speak.

 

Pull out the telescope and aim it at Mars if you want a chance to see some moisture. 

[powderfreak]

33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Pull out the telescope and aim it at Mars if you want a chance to see some moisture. 

When you guys are getting deform bands and 30” in 12 hours this winter… I’ll have to think back and remember at least we enjoyed washed out roads.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

When you guys are getting deform bands and 30” in 12 hours this winter… I’ll have to think back and remember at least we enjoyed washed out roads.

8.4" St Johnsbury. That's unreal. I will say that a basically stalled tstm due to an ULL feature in the area and light steering flow likely was the main culprit.

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

8.4" St Johnsbury. That's unreal. I will say that a basically stalled tstm due to an ULL feature in the area and light steering flow likely was the main culprit.

Crazy that it maxed out right over the town.  St J isn’t huge but it’s decent sized for that area in NNE.

When do you get an 8” deluge to sit over an ASOS that’s oddly situated not at an airport but in the middle of town at the Fairbanks Museum.

CoCoRAHS too.

[kdxken]

3 hours ago, kdxken said:

Yeah, yeah and we were entering an ice age in the 1970s lol. You need to speak with our Climate Czar Mr Wolf. He has assured us that it's happened a million times before. His research can be found In the Snowmobile Chronicles which date all the way back to the 1990s.

Speaking of Wolfie, You don't suppose he's still out looking for snow do you? This seemed odd to me.

 

 

[dendrite]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

8.4" St Johnsbury. That's unreal. I will say that a basically stalled tstm due to an ULL feature in the area and light steering flow likely was the main culprit.

They can’t even do 8.4” in snow up there

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

It no longer rains. The lawn has undergone desertification and Shai-Hulud is on the prowl. Spice Melange hangs in summer zephyrs that give no moisture. I'm making a stillsuit in my basement as we speak.

 

This is what it looks like when it doesn't rain. 80/74. The evil dews are back.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

This is what it looks like when it doesn't rain. 80/74. The evil dews are back.

You had like 2.5" or so last week.

[Lava Rock]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You had like 2.5" or so last week.

oh yeah, but this pic is from 2015. Here's a shot from today. That stretch up until 2020 or so was terrible. It would rain April to early May then not again till Oct. couldn't even get a T storm or shower it seemed for 3-4 Summers in a row. No complaints about this summer.

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

This is what it looks like when it doesn't rain. 80/74. The evil dews are back.

It’s looked like that every single year since the inception of the board. It doesn’t matter the season or the amount of rain. It always looks the same … terrible 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

oh yeah, but this pic is from 2015. Here's a shot from today. That stretch up until 2020 or so was terrible. It would rain April to early May then not again till Oct. couldn't even get a T storm or shower it seemed for 3-4 Summers in a row. No complaints about this summer.

You did the right thing with the big plant bed. That looks good.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s looked like that every single year since the inception of the board. It doesn’t matter the season or the amount of rain. It always looks the same … terrible 

I forgot how much it looked like the moon under that tree.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

87.1°/71.5° Very dumb.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

8.4" St Johnsbury. That's unreal. I will say that a basically stalled tstm due to an ULL feature in the area and light steering flow likely was the main culprit.

It's happened in the past (CAR had 6.4" in less than 3 hours in August 1981) but it's far more common now.  13 months back, southern Franklin County here had 4-6" in 2 hours, probably just as catastrophic as St. Johnsbury for the smaller streams, but the larger ones had no issues like those in VT.