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July 2024 Observations and Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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Hopefully we can get to the end of the month and still be 2° above normal. Today isn't going to help. With climate change you could actually make a case that it's been downright cold. Been weeks since we've seen 90. Hottest ever lolz...

 

Screenshot_20240729_212627_Chrome.jpg

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

This thunder is crazy.  I’m not sure I’ve ever heard it like this… cracking but then echoing almost. It’s bizarre, constant noise.

Weird to get a storm to back in from the East.

IMG_0344.jpeg.238c52ac7401b1796ba2e1fbd8fc0ece.jpeg

Not a drop here but the thunder was loud enough that I thought we were going to get it. Looked at radar and that storm was nowhere near me. 

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https://www.wcax.com/2024/07/30/flooding-causes-road-washouts-northeast-kingdom-surrounding-areas/

BURLINGTON, Vt. (WCAX) - The National Weather Service has issued a flood warning for towns in the Northeast Kingdom.

Flash flooding in St. Johnsbury has closed several roads, including Memorial Drive, Route 2 east of Route 18, and Route 5 south of the State Police Barracks.

Route 114 in East Burke is closed south of Mt. Hunger Rd.

Essex and Orleans have been issued flood warnings.

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5 minutes ago, klw said:

https://www.wcax.com/2024/07/30/flooding-causes-road-washouts-northeast-kingdom-surrounding-areas/

BURLINGTON, Vt. (WCAX) - The National Weather Service has issued a flood warning for towns in the Northeast Kingdom.

Flash flooding in St. Johnsbury has closed several roads, including Memorial Drive, Route 2 east of Route 18, and Route 5 south of the State Police Barracks.

Route 114 in East Burke is closed south of Mt. Hunger Rd.

Essex and Orleans have been issued flood warnings.

FEMA’s database lists 20 major disaster declarations for Vermont during the study’s timeframe, the vast majority from severe storms leading to floods.That means that despite Vermont’s modest size — it ranks 45th in land area for states — only Arkansas, Iowa, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and California were issued more federal disaster declarations.

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2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

FEMA’s database lists 20 major disaster declarations for Vermont during the study’s timeframe, the vast majority from severe storms leading to floods.That means that despite Vermont’s modest size — it ranks 45th in land area for states — only Arkansas, Iowa, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and California were issued more federal disaster declarations.

Insurance is going to go through the roof there. 
 

Meanwhile, you can’t spell Stein without SNE.

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38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Insurance is going to go through the roof there. 
 

Meanwhile, you can’t spell Stein without SNE.

Stein? Say wut over 2 yesterday and on pace for another record rain year. 14 inches in 2 met summer months. Average is 8.5. YTD is 47.5 average annually here is 49. Stein can suck it. That isn't an issue at all.

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Stein? Say wut over 2 yesterday and on pace for another record rain year. 14 inches in 2 met summer months. Average is 8.5. YTD is 47.5 average annually here is 49. Stein can suck it. That isn't an issue at all.

But you’re in the Mid Atlantic.

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8 hours ago, mreaves said:

Not a drop here but the thunder was loud enough that I thought we were going to get it. Looked at radar and that storm was nowhere near me. 

That's like Jay Maine 13 months ago.  In Farmington we heard near-constant thunder but not much rain, while that nearby town got hit with 4-6" in 2 hours.  Several main roads and many feeder roads were impassible for weeks, even months, and IIRC there's still one bridge not yet repaired, though folks there have another route of access.  The VT floods are more widespread but otherwise the same catastrophe.

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10 hours ago, kdxken said:

Hopefully we can get to the end of the month and still be 2° above normal. Today isn't going to help. With climate change you could actually make a case that it's been downright cold. Been weeks since we've seen 90. Hottest ever lolz...

 

Screenshot_20240729_212627_Chrome.jpg

2F above normal with the artificially inflated 1991-2010 norms is a HOT month. They already raised the norms like 1-2F from what they were in the 1990s. So this same month would have been considered blazing hot in the 1990s. 3-4F is a big deal in July.

Let's play a game. Is it the hottest summer to date in SNE?

At ORH, yes.

image.png.5965dbf3f54904bf61341dfca1b7a4aa.png

At BOS, no. Tied for sixth place.

image.png.81cff20454f0e6fe9e89ea8cfb1c004e.png

CON, that would be a no. 4th place officially, but these are some suspiciously high readings from the early 1870s. :lol:

image.png.25a6abdbfa3b422cc601207824049b56.png

BDL, yes.

image.png.9ab0d4c600d5b4e6c08b77305ef930ce.png

Just outside the greater SNE region. ALB, yes.

image.png.814b844656ee312da3d97932038712b0.png

Probably more NNE, but BTV. No, in 2nd place, 0.1F behind the blazing hot summer of 2020.

image.png.04de0db1ec1078e8c9a66c319e38ae4d.png

Mount Washington, New Hampshire (MWN). No, 3rd place.

image.png.a6f529e35f9ea266770a95250dfffa55.png

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9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

This is borderline unfathomable to be honest.  A full 5-day average of -3 to -5 in mid-August… just doesn’t happen.  Regardless of the poor AI model, tossed on any model.

About as likely to happen as this AI

image.jpeg

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All this money and resources being invested into these "AI models" can be better used elsewhere. This whole AI movement is a big joke. So many companies are trying to fully switch over to AI for customer service (and eliminate call centers to save money). This is going to backfire so badly on these companies...it kind of is actually. 

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

All this money and resources being invested into these "AI models" can be better used elsewhere. This whole AI movement is a big joke. So many companies are trying to fully switch over to AI for customer service (and eliminate call centers to save money). This is going to backfire so badly on these companies...it kind of is actually. 

We’ll see. It’s the future…it’ll improve. It isn’t going away so like social media we need to learn to live and adapt with it. 

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21 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

2F above normal with the artificially inflated 1991-2010 norms is a HOT month. They already raised the norms like 1-2F from what they were in the 1990s. So this same month would have been considered blazing hot in the 1990s. 3-4F is a big deal in July.

Let's play a game. Is it the hottest summer to date in SNE?

At ORH, yes.

image.png.5965dbf3f54904bf61341dfca1b7a4aa.png

At BOS, no. Tied for sixth place.

image.png.81cff20454f0e6fe9e89ea8cfb1c004e.png

CON, that would be a no. 4th place officially, but these are some suspiciously high readings from the early 1870s. :lol:

image.png.25a6abdbfa3b422cc601207824049b56.png

BDL, yes.

image.png.9ab0d4c600d5b4e6c08b77305ef930ce.png

Just outside the greater SNE region. ALB, yes.

image.png.814b844656ee312da3d97932038712b0.png

Probably more NNE, but BTV. No, in 2nd place, 0.1F behind the blazing hot summer of 2020.

image.png.04de0db1ec1078e8c9a66c319e38ae4d.png

Mount Washington, New Hampshire (MWN). No, 3rd place.

image.png.a6f529e35f9ea266770a95250dfffa55.png

Also, people, it's actually not normal to have constant 90s in the summer - even in hot summers, in much of the northeast.

Looking at ORH airport data only, I can find only 9 years with more 90s at this point in the year (out of 77 years). So only about 1 in 9 summers historically would be expected to have more 90s at this point, and none since 1999.

image.png.fb578e88bac4faf65152726eb94fbb05.png

BTV, dating back to the 1800s, only 9 years have had more 90s at this point. By contrast, 22 years had 0 90s at this point & 40 years had only 1 or fewer.

image.png.794aca51d83a76538a7aa84a6d4ae914.png

CON, 8th most dating back to 1869. Only 2 years since 1978 have had more.

image.png.00eaf74c49602e892fb0fe7f15f54318.png

It's crazy to me how people have to redefine what a hot summer is to pretend it's not a hot summer.

 

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Just now, dendrite said:

We’ll see. It’s the future…it’ll improve. It isn’t going away so like social media we need to learn to live and adapt with it. 

Don't disagree with that, though I think we're moving too quickly with it. Certainly it can be extremely useful and help with tedious tasks humans have to perform and can help us be more productive. 

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Mark Breen of the Fairbanks Museum said on VPR this morning that the museum got a smidge under 8 inches of rain.  Beat the previous record for daily rainfall by 3 inches.  Records go back 130 years there.  Reception wasn't great, I think he was saying any day not just 7/30

 

edit:  found a link

https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2024-07-30/fairbanks-museum-records-record-single-day-rainfall-during-nek-flooding

Quote

The Fairbanks Museum and Planetarium in St. Johnsbury has reported 7.96 inches of rainfall, the highest single-day total in their 130 years of recorded weather.

Prior record was 4.99 if I heard correctly..

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