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July 2024 Observations and Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Better than green heads.

They're probably chowing down on the green heads.  Many years ago (1974) at forestry camp, we were building a bridge at Huntley Brook (eastern Maine) and the black flies were horrible.  A couple hundred dragonflies appeared and within 10 minutes there was not a black fly to be found.

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Man, that’s some biblical stuff right there. Meanwhile, our plans for tomorrow might have to wait with this sneaky little coastal storm moving up in our direction. Couldn’t have asked for better timing to get some big rains lol.

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18 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

12z gfs la-la land ends summer

Right on schedule ... does this every year about a month past the solstice ... It's the same thing going the other direction in late April.  The front side of summer the model behaves as though spending the two week's worth of frames trying to scrub the added seasonal warmth out of the atmosphere - like  ... I dunno, the sun must be an error?   About mid way through summer it starts hurrying autumn onto the scene.    I noticed it begin doing this about 7 or 8 years ago.

Not sure why it does this, but I suspect it is related to why it is always the cooler of the three model systems, GGEM, EPS ...etc.   By D4 or 5 it's around 1 to 2 ( almost imperceptibly so ...) cooler with these non-hydrostats below, on the polar side of the ambient jet, and from there it ends up around D12 sometimes 10 colder within the SPVs and general PV well.   Euro cluster left, GGEM middle... GEFs mean is on the right. You can see just eye-ball test-wise that we are integrating a cooler PV template at the far end of the model run

image.thumb.png.22aa6396f2aa898d1c5cf33bf44c59ee.png 

Summer's not the best season to point this out, but there is slightly more cold in the GEFs there above. - but it begins effecting pattern morphology sooner then 300 hours, particularly so during the winter.  If we make this comparison on January 15 it's a bit more noticeable.  Winter probably gives some sort of harmonic feed-back between the model's gradient production, on top  of the fact that we are in faster velocity soaked state of winters already, anyway, due to the big  C-squared. 

The GFS just has a speed bias man, one which really should be there if there is even modestly too much gradient between 70N and 30N around the globe - creating a surplus cool height on the polar side of the ambient jet seeds that circumstance.  No one's seeing it ( maybe?) because we're setting air-land speed records with intercontinental flights and observing 200mph jet cores as it is. Which I wonder if that circumstance is masking matters...  Or perhaps even an emergent error quotient because the model tech, despite advances, is up against it when balloons go around the globe at 1/3 the speed of sound in the winter... i.e. fast is error prone

 

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Absolutely pouring now here in Chatham..I wish I had my camera with me earlier around high tide as the water level was far higher than it normally is, almost spilling over the boardwalk at one point. It’ll be interesting to see if we get any splash over tomorrow afternoon. 

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26 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Heh’ always a surprise seeing showers moving E -> W this time of year. 
 
Couldn’t sleep so I came outside for a bit.

Thunder and lightning with them here on Ct/RI border 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Steined here relatively. Hopefully some more today. 

Yeah wagons were pretty much south. Thankfully only .01 here. Looks like a garbage week ahead. Sucks to lose a week of summer.

"

Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms with localized downpours are expected today as an upper level low pressure moves across the region. It is trending drier for Tuesday before more widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms develop on Wednesday as another
system moves through. It then turns hot and humid for Thursday
through next weekend, but an unsettled weather pattern will continue with chance of showers or thunderstorms at times.
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11 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Yeah wagons were pretty much south. Thankfully only .01 here. Looks like a garbage week ahead. Sucks to lose a week of summer.

"

Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms with localized downpours are expected today as an upper level low pressure moves across the region. It is trending drier for Tuesday before more widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms develop on Wednesday as another
system moves through. It then turns hot and humid for Thursday
through next weekend, but an unsettled weather pattern will continue with chance of showers or thunderstorms at times.

My yard is toast Except for plants that I water. 

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