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July 2024 Observations and Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m confused. There have likely been multiple tornadoes otg in NY today. It’s high end by any measure. 

ehhh. So far 3 confirmed tornadoes. The most impressive cell overall was the one near BUF earlier. Of all the cells and warnings going on, mostly everything has been underwhelming. Just giving good enough looks to warn. Same thing with yesterday, there was the 10% TOR and enhanced risk in southern IL/IN and northern KY...sure there were a few tornadoes but there were more severe weather reports in Maine/New Hampshire than in the enhanced. 

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1 hour ago, adam038 said:

We can’t be all that far away from all-time high DPs, right? Any ideas as to what those are at the main reporting sites?

See  https://www.weather.gov/box/dewpoint  for the records from mid-late 1930s through 2014 for several New England climate sites.  Sites:  BOS - PVD - ORH - BDL - BDR - CON.  This data was QC'd before posting.  Averages are for the Period of Record.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Also most of the action seems to be outside of the highlighted highest risk area. Near BUF and then up along the WF which Scott and Ryan pointed out for good stuff. 

The profiles were pretty good to the south too. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The profiles were pretty good to the south too. 

Definitely, my overall concern was how the storms would behave in the environment. I try really hard not to get too caught into the supercell/sig tor parameters, updraft helicity swaths, and the hazard type on those sharppy soundings. My thinking was that largely, storms would really struggle to become mature enough to fully utilize the dynamics present.

Outside of the vicinity of the warm front, the forcing was pretty weak, height falls were modest, and you had warming mlvl temperatures. The better forcing and height falls were towards the BUF area and I think that helped with that long-tracked supercell. The weak forcing, lapse rates, and warm mid-levels just told me that as parcels got to a certain level, they would struggle to really rise and produce sufficiently strong updrafts and while the shear was stupendous, there was something lacking (enhanced stretching potential) to develop sufficient rotation throughout the storms. 

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38 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

ehhh. So far 3 confirmed tornadoes. The most impressive cell overall was the one near BUF earlier. Of all the cells and warnings going on, mostly everything has been underwhelming. Just giving good enough looks to warn. Same thing with yesterday, there was the 10% TOR and enhanced risk in southern IL/IN and northern KY...sure there were a few tornadoes but there were more severe weather reports in Maine/New Hampshire than in the enhanced. 

I don't know, when there is a tornado warning in the heart of the Adirondacks it seems pretty legit.

 

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Just now, Hoth said:

 Wiz gets stoked about dews and swass but poopoos a legit severe outbreak? What is going on? Too many 40s?

:lol:

Not poopooing it, just stating that alot of what was being said out there (not referring to the forum) was totally overblown. Some people on fb and Twitter calling for monster tornado outbreak, strong tornadoes, PDS tornadoes. Of all the storms that developed it was only some select cells that were really able to take off. 

When dealing with NY/PA 3 or 4 tornadoes for an event isn't earth shattering for them. 

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No whoosh for you! 10 more day 

 

Details...

A bermuda high continues to sit over the western Atlantic directing
warm and moist air into New England along with periodic disturbances
leading to wet and occasionally stormy weather. All the while, we
see no real relief in sight from the heat and humidity in the form
of any strong cold fronts to dry out the airmass. Put another way,
there is no big "whoosh" in the forecast (a term some have coined
for the feeling when a robust cold front swoops through and drops
dewpoints from the 70s to the 40s).
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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That ain’t happening. Theyll hover near or over 70. . Maybe far interior in CNE drops into 60’s

I’m Going under 70, guess we shall see. Regardless still pretty uncomfortable. 

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