weatherwiz Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I’m confused. There have likely been multiple tornadoes otg in NY today. It’s high end by any measure. ehhh. So far 3 confirmed tornadoes. The most impressive cell overall was the one near BUF earlier. Of all the cells and warnings going on, mostly everything has been underwhelming. Just giving good enough looks to warn. Same thing with yesterday, there was the 10% TOR and enhanced risk in southern IL/IN and northern KY...sure there were a few tornadoes but there were more severe weather reports in Maine/New Hampshire than in the enhanced. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 This makes like 10 confirmed and it’s only the beginning https://x.com/tylerjankoski/status/1811120670060765184?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Possibly an all time outbreak https://x.com/mjventrice/status/1811114089709470024?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This makes like 10 confirmed and it’s only the beginning https://x.com/tylerjankoski/status/1811120670060765184?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 10 confirmed? Source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Possibly an all time outbreak https://x.com/mjventrice/status/1811114089709470024?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 5/31/98 says hold my beer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 This one is nasty https://twitter.com/reedtimmerusa/status/1811122341558006072?s=46&t=096JqkIpgJTvSWddnDYqdA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 We'll see what happens once more damage reports come in and surveys but if we come out of this with 3 or 4 tornadoes with like 20+ warnings issued that's a pretty brutal verification rate. Not sure how many warnings there have been so far but it seems like its a big number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillB Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 1 hour ago, adam038 said: We can’t be all that far away from all-time high DPs, right? Any ideas as to what those are at the main reporting sites? See https://www.weather.gov/box/dewpoint for the records from mid-late 1930s through 2014 for several New England climate sites. Sites: BOS - PVD - ORH - BDL - BDR - CON. This data was QC'd before posting. Averages are for the Period of Record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: This one is nasty https://twitter.com/reedtimmerusa/status/1811122341558006072?s=46&t=096JqkIpgJTvSWddnDYqdA Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Also most of the action seems to be outside of the highlighted highest risk area. Near BUF and then up along the WF which Scott and Ryan pointed out for good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Also most of the action seems to be outside of the highlighted highest risk area. Near BUF and then up along the WF which Scott and Ryan pointed out for good stuff. The profiles were pretty good to the south too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The profiles were pretty good to the south too. Definitely, my overall concern was how the storms would behave in the environment. I try really hard not to get too caught into the supercell/sig tor parameters, updraft helicity swaths, and the hazard type on those sharppy soundings. My thinking was that largely, storms would really struggle to become mature enough to fully utilize the dynamics present. Outside of the vicinity of the warm front, the forcing was pretty weak, height falls were modest, and you had warming mlvl temperatures. The better forcing and height falls were towards the BUF area and I think that helped with that long-tracked supercell. The weak forcing, lapse rates, and warm mid-levels just told me that as parcels got to a certain level, they would struggle to really rise and produce sufficiently strong updrafts and while the shear was stupendous, there was something lacking (enhanced stretching potential) to develop sufficient rotation throughout the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: This one is nasty https://twitter.com/reedtimmerusa/status/1811122341558006072?s=46&t=096JqkIpgJTvSWddnDYqdA Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Wiz gets stoked about dews and swass but poopoos a legit severe outbreak? What is going on? Too many 40s? 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 38 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: ehhh. So far 3 confirmed tornadoes. The most impressive cell overall was the one near BUF earlier. Of all the cells and warnings going on, mostly everything has been underwhelming. Just giving good enough looks to warn. Same thing with yesterday, there was the 10% TOR and enhanced risk in southern IL/IN and northern KY...sure there were a few tornadoes but there were more severe weather reports in Maine/New Hampshire than in the enhanced. I don't know, when there is a tornado warning in the heart of the Adirondacks it seems pretty legit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Just now, Hoth said: Wiz gets stoked about dews and swass but poopoos a legit severe outbreak? What is going on? Too many 40s? Not poopooing it, just stating that alot of what was being said out there (not referring to the forum) was totally overblown. Some people on fb and Twitter calling for monster tornado outbreak, strong tornadoes, PDS tornadoes. Of all the storms that developed it was only some select cells that were really able to take off. When dealing with NY/PA 3 or 4 tornadoes for an event isn't earth shattering for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 2 minutes ago, mreaves said: I don't know, when there is a tornado warning in the heart of the Adirondacks it seems pretty legit. that is a very nasty cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Goodbye bridges. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 No whoosh for you! 10 more day Details... A bermuda high continues to sit over the western Atlantic directing warm and moist air into New England along with periodic disturbances leading to wet and occasionally stormy weather. All the while, we see no real relief in sight from the heat and humidity in the form of any strong cold fronts to dry out the airmass. Put another way, there is no big "whoosh" in the forecast (a term some have coined for the feeling when a robust cold front swoops through and drops dewpoints from the 70s to the 40s). 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: that is a very nasty cell That cell is heading right towards a place called Hurricane Mountain. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 We haven’t had many whooshes in the last decade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 1 minute ago, Patrick-02540 said: That cell is heading right towards a place called Hurricane Mountain. Lol. might have to rename it tornado mountain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 89/74 Sauna! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: We haven’t had many whooshes in the last decade. Long gone now. More like squishes and Ffffttttttt now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Home Davis showing 93/76 this is no longer "fun", gusty at times , was hoping for a storm or two, but I live in Nashua, NH seems to miss us along with snowstorms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 NWS forecast for DAW has 90+ on the table through next Wednesday. Wow... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 We’ll see what the verification is, but this is the most tor warnings ever issued by BUF in a day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Monday looks like it could be a big severe day for all of New England . There’s an EML . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: That ain’t happening. Theyll hover near or over 70. . Maybe far interior in CNE drops into 60’s I’m Going under 70, guess we shall see. Regardless still pretty uncomfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Steined again on that last cell and looks almost dry for tomorrow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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