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July 2024 Observations and Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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heh... the Bahama Blue pattern was seen by yours truly a week or so ago.  I remember posting that there was  suggestion -

this rendition is actually pretty potent for short while because it's not just a trough or weakness along 90W with a S flow out ahead.   A powerful WAR signal's getting involved. Its extending heights towering over 600 dm by the way, and it is bumping W through D4. It's vertically stacked over sufficient surface high pressure to orient the lower level pgf into a conveyor all the way up. The difference between those large scale features has a 20kt S wind burst from the along the Del Marva coast and G-string waters, all the way up.  

I tell you... seeing 581 dm hydrostatic heights at Logan for longer than 12 hours on the NAM FOUS grid is striking.  It's probably the drag draft on the SE side of Beryl's death vomit ... Once that axis clear, the hgts will recede back to just 577, while DPs sluff off to 75 in due time. But for that period... that is crazy.   The air will feel like metallic heat at 3 am.   

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6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

We definitely need the rain around here.  My favorite type of weather, Bahama blues inbound

I was just commenting on the WAR's involvement in this S conveyor episode -

it may actually suppress significant rain. Heights actually rise from the SE, shortly after Beryl's guts smear by to the NW, so whatever we get from this pattern needs ( probably ) to happen while that is occurring because it we may be stably capped at mid levels ( over a warm DP pool below) for a day or two afterward.  

It's just what the synoptics look like right now.  Maybe the ridge doesn't bump so much NW... whatever -

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I was just commenting on the WAR's involvement in this S conveyor episode -

it may actually suppress significant convection streams. Heights actually rise from the SE, shortly after Beryl's guts smear by to the NW, so whatever we get from this pattern needs ( probably ) to happen while that is occurring because it we may be stably capped at mid levels over a DP pool below for a day or two afterward.  

It's just what the synoptics look like right now.  Maybe the ridge doesn't bump so much NW... whatever -

It's like -2 to -3C at 500 Thursday lol. Capped AF.

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was just commenting on the WAR's involvement in this S conveyor episode -

it may actually suppress significant rain. Heights actually rise from the SE, shortly after Beryl's guts smear by to the NW, so whatever we get from this pattern needs ( probably ) to happen while that is occurring because it we may be stably capped at mid levels over a DP pool below for a day or two afterward.  

It's just what the synoptics look like right now.  Maybe the ridge doesn't bump so much NW... whatever -

 

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's like -2 to -3C at 500 Thursday lol. Capped AF.

Yup going to be difficult to get much convection tomorrow or Thursday (even though we have the marginal tomorrow). It is super warm aloft. Its like +10C to +12C at 700...going to need some major forcing to break that.

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I am a little perplexed with the SPC saying lack of CINH tomorrow within the slight risk zone. Was looking at sound soundings and there is a pretty stout cap around 800mb. There will certainly be an abundance of llvl instability and the shear profile is noteworthy but I wonder how many mature discrete cells will develop in NY/PA. There may be a very narrow corridor that way though with some enhanced tornado potential. 

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