powderfreak Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 From WPC: The CAMs are in good agreement that convection will expand, although the exact placement of what will be primarily scattered cells or multi-cells through 20-25 kts of bulk shear is uncertain. This is reflected by modest 1"/6hrs EAS probabilities, but high(>80%) and moderate(>30%) neighborhood probabilities for 1" and 3", respectively, in 6 hours. There is high confidence that convection will expand as thermodynamic advection continues from the south pushing PWs to broadly over 2" and SBCAPE to nearly 2000 J/kg in much of New England and Upstate NY. These cells will generally lift northward progressively on 0-6km mean winds of 15-20 kts, but the widespread coverage should result in multiple rounds in many areas. Additionally, nearly unidirectional flow noted in morning soundings suggests brief training is possible along narrow N-S corridors. Rain rates will likely reach 1-2"/hr in most of these cells, and the HRRR 15-min accumulation product suggests locally 0.75"+ of rain is possible this evening which indicates brief intense rates to 3"/hr are possible. These axes of enhanced training are where the heaviest rainfall is expected, and this is most likely from far eastern Upstate NY into much of VT where 2-3" of rain is possible. FFG across the region has been compromised from recent heavy rainfall, and there are some local minimums of less than 1.5"/3hrs in the Green Mountains and Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. This area is generally sensitive anyway due the terrain features supporting rapid runoff when rates become intense, but the antecedent rain has made the area even more vulnerable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 How many more bridges today? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Let’s get the old Green Mountain Mall another 8”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 2 hours ago, grambo said: Had a suspected microburst roll through Colchester, VT yesterday. I was up in Grand Isle taking care of the parent’s yard and could see a major storm building to the south- and then saw that the cameras back at the condo had both gone out- so figured we lost power. About 30 minutes later texts started coming in from neighbors and my partner that there were trees down everywhere and traffic was snarled up in Colchester Village. We got some pretty significant localized damage in about a quarter mile radius near the intersection of Route 2 and 2A. Plenty of activity in this area of town last night with all of the major tree companies in the area in full swing. Spent a few hours yesterday evening helping some neighbors clean up and dispose of tree debris that fell their backyard. Tree workers are here this morning for our association. A photo of our neighbors’ across from us and a few screengrabs from video I took on a brief ride around before coming home. That row of White Pines will give you endless damage adventures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 2 hours ago, kdxken said: Why an insurance company would insure property next to pine trees is beyond me. Yeah, those White pines are always causing damage. My folks have a row of 60' Norway Spruce 30 feet from the back of their house that have held up very well. They are not brittle like the pines, and have a root ball diameter half their height. And then the old Blue Spruce is prone to blow-over at the root ball, especially younger than 30 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How many more bridges today? Kidding aside. I can’t imagine another Irene in those spots right now. Vermont has become the Waialeale of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Gusty downpour literally popped overhead. Sun back out now. Quick .10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Kidding aside. I can’t imagine another Irene in those spots right now. Vermont has become the Waialeale of New England. A tropical storm would be “Shut ‘em down” for the state. Thanks for playing, time to load up the wagons and head elsewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Kidding aside. I can’t imagine another Irene in those spots right now. Vermont has become the Waialeale of New England. It’s dangerous state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 2 hours ago, kdxken said: Why an insurance company would insure property next to pine trees is beyond me. In my experience they seem to cause a lot less damage than maples and oaks in severe events. White pines seem to snap halfway up when the big deciduous trees come down completely. I mean, I guess you could argue why would an insurance company insure anybody with any trees near their house or that live by the ocean or that live by a stream etc..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 So wet n dewy https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1818679124157976802?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 So gross out. Loving our new heat pumps. In our new climate living without AC in NNE away from the coast is insanity stuff. Incredible summer for lake things though. We’re blessed with them here. From last night: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gusty downpour literally popped overhead. Sun back out now. Quick .10 Tolland now has a climate like the Big Island of Hawaii. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 About ..43" here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Couple of good dumps at home. 0.53” and more to come. Finally. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 45 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: So gross out. Loving our new heat pumps. In our new climate living without AC in NNE away from the coast is insanity stuff. Incredible summer for lake things though. We’re blessed with them here. From last night: Even here, 3 miles from the coast, it's a necessity. Pumps getting installed here in a few weeks. And, yeah, perfect summer for freshwater recreation. I spent the last week up in your neck of the woods camping and exploring several of those small spring-fed ponds in Denmark/Bridgton/Sebago. Some actual hidden gems. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 46 minutes ago, dendrite said: Couple of good dumps at home. 0.53” and more to come. Finally. It’s over! He’s gone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: In my experience they seem to cause a lot less damage than maples and oaks in severe events. White pines seem to snap halfway up when the big deciduous trees come down completely. I mean, I guess you could argue why would an insurance company insure anybody with any trees near their house or that live by the ocean or that live by a stream etc..? Maples can suck too. Usually there's a reason for deciduous trees to come down. In other words they give you warning. You can get it taken down before it does any damage. Perfectly healthy pine trees will snap just because they feel like it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: How many more bridges today? My grandfather was a wise man. Long ago he sat me down and said, "When someone from Vermont tells you they spent the weekend building bridges, don't assume it's a metaphor." 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 12 minutes ago, kdxken said: Maples can suck too. Usually there's a reason for deciduous trees to come down. In other words they give you warning. You can get it taken down before it does any damage. Perfectly healthy pine trees will snap just because they feel like it. What are the odds? Neighbor's maple just came down. But...as you say, the rot was apparent for quite some time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Norways are the worst. They snap easily. We have lost so many around here over the last several years. Good riddance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 27 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said: What are the odds? Neighbor's maple just came down. But...as you say, the rot was apparent for quite some time. Nice! Was that in the storm that just hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nice! Was that in the storm that just hit? They passed a bit to my north. She said it came down in complete stillness. Hit its critical point, and just collapsed. If I were a tree, that's how I would want to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 47 minutes ago, kdxken said: Maples can suck too. Usually there's a reason for deciduous trees to come down. In other words they give you warning. You can get it taken down before it does any damage. Perfectly healthy pine trees will snap just because they feel like it. The issue with white pine is that it's often much taller than the surrounding trees and its wood is fairly weak. In summer, aspen is vulnerable, as its wood is no stronger than pine and often has decay, plus all the sail is at the top of the mast. In winter, fir is the target due to shallow roots and they commonly have interior rot at the base when mature. Spruce roots aren't much better, but the wood tends to be a bit stronger and usually more sound. Left the Farmington hospital in a 2:30 PM downpour after my 3rd and final gel injection to my left knee and got fairly wet on a slo-mo 50 yard "dash" to the pickup. Traffic was going about 30 for the next 4 miles before the rain began to let up and 2 miles later the road was dry. The rain caught up (in lesser abundance) about a half mile from the house. Maybe a tenth here, but the 10 minutes of Farmington rain probably dropped 1/3" just while I drove thru. Sizable flash flood warning to our SW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Stein is Steining me today, got a couple small showers. HRRR was better with the rain today than the NAM. I would have called golf off today for the league if I relied on the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 No winds and only moderate rain but some tremendous thunder and lightning the past 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Here it was coming in. Can you see that angry bear? This was from 25 minutes ago. .51 just from this line of cells. Violent lightning and thunder. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Wet first half of August potentially. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Hopefully we can redux a '54 Carol-type scenario next month 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 15 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said: Here it was coming in. Can you see that angry bear? This was from 25 minutes ago. Can you see the vicious bear? .51 just from this line of cells. Violent lightning and thunder. Looks more like a big dog with its tongue out sideways. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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