July 2024 Observations and Discussion

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I guess. But we haven’t had many of these types of days. It’s been a relentless onslaught of 90s. 

It’s the most jarring when we do get a few cooler afternoons but then people find it was still +10 at night… that’s the CC effect.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

About 30 years, yeah. 

The next negative cycle I think we're going to learn a great deal on regarding climate. I mean we'll do so anyways just because of improvements with technology, increased data collection, and continued growth with skill but when you look at tropical data and data on temperature records, the coincidence with the flip from -AMO to +AMO is pretty striking. Certainly there is more at play than the +AMO but I don't think the AMO gets discussed or even mentioned, especially within the mainstream media (they probably don't even know what the hell it is). But if you look at all the strides made within the field since the last -AMO cycle, it's remarkable. 

Maybe one day I'll do a blog post on this. It's all just my opinion but I find it interesting anyways. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I am extremely curious to see what happens once the AMO begins to flip towards the negative phase, though I would presume we are still some years away from that. What's the average life-cycle for each phase, like ~30 years? The flip happened around 1995 so you would have to think that we are either at the peak of the +AMO cycle or very close to it. I've always been in the belief that if we're continuing to smash warm records during the next -AMO cycle then we're in some trouble. Now, I don't think we'd see a total regime flip once we go         -AMO, it may take some time for the atmosphere to adjust 

 

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

About 30 years, yeah. 

This all goes hand-in-hand with my theory of how if we are still going scorched earth and pointing fingers at whomever may have stolen our snow by 2030, then its time to seriously consider that a larger percentage of this is indeed permanent and not cyclical in nature.

AMO flip, PDO flip, solar min, wake of strong multiyear Nina and strong La Nina.....lots of reasons for change between now and the end of the decade.

[kdxken]

"Wet bulb temperature or heat index? Which is a better measure of summer heat?

School athletic teams use one specific metric to best assess heat’s effect on the human body"

 

Pay site. Something else for us to argue about. 

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/07/24/metro/wet-bulb-globe-temperature-heat-index-new-england-summer-dave-epstein/

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

This all goes hand-in-hand with my theory of how if we are still going scorched earth and pointing fingers at whomever may have stolen our snow by 2030, then its time to seriosuly consider that a larger percentage of this is indeed permanent and not cyclical in nature.

AMO flip, PDO flip, solar min, wake of strong multiyear Nina and strong La Nina.....lots of reasons for change between now and the end of the decade.

Agreed. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed. 

 

And I hope no one interprets this as me questioning CC because I'm not....just referring to the larger scale shift that has porked the east relative to the western CONUS that some are attributing to CC. We could also see a bit of a drop off from the uber heat due to natural cycles/variation and still be realizing CC.

[tamarack]

11 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Haven't hit 90 since 2yrs ago

Surprising, since we reached 90 at our transpiration-cooled site last month, on the 19th, and narrowly missed our first double play in 22 years with 89 the next day.

[ma blizzard]

starting to get into the fronto band, looks like a quick 3”-6” this afternoon 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

And I hope no one interprets this as me questioning CC because I'm not....just referring to the larger scale shift that has porked the east relative to the western CONUS that some are attributing to CC. We could also see a bit of a drop off from the uber heat due to natural cycles/variation and still be realizing CC.

Yup, I totally get what you're saying. As much as I believe CC is having an influence I'm not going to blame every weather anomaly on CC. For example, dew points well into the 70's are not uncommon in our region during the summer nor are overnight lows only down into the 60's or even lower 70's at times, however, is there an increasing trend for these occurrences...and as we've discussed CC may be playing a role in these frequencies. But yeah...every time I see folks just blaming CC for every weather anomaly or event I cringe. It really pisses me off because the way it is portrayed in the media and argued I think is totally off base...and from both sides and the arguments are totally wrong...but that again is my opinion. 

[Lava Rock]

6 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Surprising, since we reached 90 at our transpiration-cooled site last month, on the 19th, and narrowly missed our first double play in 22 years with 89 the next day.

I was wrong. Looks like we hit 90F on the 19th for all of 1hr then it dropped back to 88

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

I was wrong. Looks like we hit 90F on the 19th for all of 1hr then it dropped back to 88

Us foothill weenies don’t count. It was probably a record 85+ stretch for us instead. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Near 90° is COC?

They constantly change the definition lol. And with dews in the 60’s all weekend. You just have to laugh 

[powderfreak]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

And I hope no one interprets this as me questioning CC because I'm not....just referring to the larger scale shift that has porked the east relative to the western CONUS that some are attributing to CC. We could also see a bit of a drop off from the uber heat due to natural cycles/variation and still be realizing CC.

There has to be other things than CC at play.  This isn’t just like a half a degree Celsius of warmth that CC is supposedly adding to the background… it’s like +5 or greater most of these months lately.  There has to be larger circulations causing this or feeding into it.

[Lava Rock]

14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

There has to be other things than CC at play.  This isn’t just like a half a degree Celsius of warmth that CC is supposedly adding to the background… it’s like +5 or greater most of these months lately.  There has to be larger circulations causing this or feeding into it.

chem trails and other govt nefarious things

[CoastalWx]

44 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

chem trails and other govt nefarious things

Don’t be that guy

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

There has to be other things than CC at play.  This isn’t just like a half a degree Celsius of warmth that CC is supposedly adding to the background… it’s like +5 or greater most of these months lately.  There has to be larger circulations causing this or feeding into it.

I dunno tho. 

..mmm  I think the wider variance of the earlier climate model warnings may just be arriving.

See ( op ed)  the problem I have with this is that these weird super deep cold snaps that have been happening into middle latitudes around the winter hemisphere, during winters that are on average warm and getting warmer.   Or, the synergistic heat waves that appear to launch temperatures higher than any leading/modeled indicators argue they should extend, at any time of year now really -

These are perhaps just the coherently obvious impacts of CC, which are like rogue waves in a sea of subtler disturbing waves.  (Sorry, I love metaphors ha)

Basically, moving the dial a degree in C may in fact be integrating both subtler changes, along with disproportionately larger anomalies than one might expects.  You ever get insulted by someone clever enough to make sure you don't realize it until you've left the room?    I feel sometimes like the majority of climate change is a silent insult to our expectations, almost so gradually ...we don't realize we're being mocked.   ( a little sarcastic license here but still ) 

It's a bit of philosophy but it really appears more and more to me like CC's rising temperature, as an anticipation, really needs to be redrawn around rising chaos.   Remember those early lectures where scientist warned that crossing thresholds can also happen silently? 

I will tell you, I began posting observations related to the increasing gradient in the H500 mb hgts during winter. - if we really try hard we can see how inconspicuous phenomenon lurk. And that gradient increase, even in 3 to 6dm in the N-S integral, introduces a speed-up in the rest state velocities of the atmosphere ...--> forcing pattern and pattern-contained event morphology. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I dunno tho. 

..mmm  I think the wider variance of the earlier climate model warnings may just be arriving.

See ( op ed)  the problem I have with this is that these weird super deep cold snaps that have been happening into middle latitudes around the winter hemisphere, during winters that are on average warm and getting warmer.   Or, the synergistic heat waves that appear to launch temperatures higher than any leading/modeled indicators argue they should extend, at any time of year now really -

These are perhaps just the coherently obvious impacts of CC, which are like rogue waves in a sea of subtler disturbing waves.  (Sorry, I love metaphors ha)

Basically, moving the dial a degree in C may in fact be integrating both subtler changes, along with disproportionately larger anomalies than one might expects.  You ever get insulted by someone clever enough to make sure you don't realize it until you've left the room?    I feel sometimes like the majority of climate change is a silent insult to our expectations, almost so gradually ...we don't realize we're being mocked.   ( a little sarcastic license here but still ) 

It's a bit of philosophy but it really appears more and more to me like CC's rising temperature, as an anticipation, really needs to be redrawn around rising chaos.   Remember those early lectures where scientist warned that crossing thresholds can also happen silently? 

I will tell you, I began posting observations related to the increasing gradient in the H500 mb hgts during winter. - if we really try hard we can see how inconspicuous phenomenon lurk. And that gradient increase, even in 3 to 6dm in the N-S integral, introduces a speed-up in the rest state velocities of the atmosphere ...--> forcing pattern and pattern-contained event morphology. 

We should know in about 7-9 years.

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

There has to be other things than CC at play.  This isn’t just like a half a degree Celsius of warmth that CC is supposedly adding to the background… it’s like +5 or greater most of these months lately.  There has to be larger circulations causing this or feeding into it.

One product too (at least when it comes to the late spring/summer months here) is the Gulf of Mexico. What I'm about to say is just hypothesis as I don't have any data or maps to show this but I would have to wager that the waters in the Gulf of Mexico have been predominately above-average moving through the Winter months the past few decades. With the Gulf of Mexico running so warm, we're seeing higher dewpoints being brought farther northwards earlier in the season than you would usually suspect. Take this summer, for example. Again, nothing to back this up but there have been some saying the waters in the Gulf were weeks, if not, months ahead of schedule in terms of temperatures. When you're dealing with water temperatures pushing well into the 80's and probably even...lower 90's just think about how much llvl moisture is being fed into the atmosphere. 

These summer airmasses are becoming so dense and because of the pattern which seems to become established every summer, we're not driving these refreshing fronts south and east of the Rockies until we near the Fall. Even when we get fronts to sort of refresh the airmass here, they are either coming from across the Great Lakes or southeast Canada so the refreshment is brief, as the airmass source to our west and southwest is still juiced. 

I don't think it gets underplayed but I don't think its taken into account that how much of an influence the Gulf of Mexico has on our climate, despite being so far removed.  

 

[Torch Tiger]

6 hours ago, dendrite said:

Near 90° is COC?

Yeah

[weatherwiz]

Wasn't it the CanSIPS on TT but I swore there was a product for forecast 200mb velocity potential anomalies but I don't see it anywhere on any of the models. Did TT get rid of the product?

[NorEastermass128]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Don’t be that guy

I work for the gov’t. It amazes me how some folks think we’re capable of amassing these complex conspiracies. In reality, I’m amazed that we’re able to just keep the lights on lol

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

One product too (at least when it comes to the late spring/summer months here) is the Gulf of Mexico. What I'm about to say is just hypothesis as I don't have any data or maps to show this but I would have to wager that the waters in the Gulf of Mexico have been predominately above-average moving through the Winter months the past few decades. With the Gulf of Mexico running so warm, we're seeing higher dewpoints being brought farther northwards earlier in the season than you would usually suspect. Take this summer, for example. Again, nothing to back this up but there have been some saying the waters in the Gulf were weeks, if not, months ahead of schedule in terms of temperatures. When you're dealing with water temperatures pushing well into the 80's and probably even...lower 90's just think about how much llvl moisture is being fed into the atmosphere. 

These summer airmasses are becoming so dense and because of the pattern which seems to become established every summer, we're not driving these refreshing fronts south and east of the Rockies until we near the Fall. Even when we get fronts to sort of refresh the airmass here, they are either coming from across the Great Lakes or southeast Canada so the refreshment is brief, as the airmass source to our west and southwest is still juiced. 

I don't think it gets underplayed but I don't think its taken into account that how much of an influence the Gulf of Mexico has on our climate, despite being so far removed.  

 

In addition to greater variability, CC is higher dews/minima.  Looking back 113 years to NNE's hottest run, most sites would drop into the 60s after their 100+ afternoons.  For the hottest 9 days, July 3-11, Bridgton's avg temp was 99/67, Farmington 98/62, EEN 99/63, LEW 95/67.  Only ASH (100/70) bucked that trend.

[kdxken]

2 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I work for the gov’t. It amazes me how some folks think we’re capable of amassing these complex conspiracies. In reality, I’m amazed that we’re able to just keep the lights on lol

At least we know you're not seeding clouds. I've seen your snowfall totals the past couple years.

[powderfreak]

Off and on showers.

73/65

Ran into a friend while walking the dog in town just now.

[NorEastermass128]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

At least we know you're not seeding clouds. I've seen your snowfall totals the past couple years.

Pitiful snowfall totals. 

[SouthCoastMA]

underwhelming rain totals this week..and Stein comin back with his kung fu grip over the next 7

[NorEastermass128]

I’ve been hand watering my little patch of grass. It’s getting very steiny out there. 

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Off and on showers.

73/65

Just ran into a friend while walking the dog in town just now.

I saw a show the other night where a grizzly attacked a guy in the forest and before he left took a big dump on the guy, they were worried about an infection from the dump.

[Ginx snewx]

15 hours ago, dendrite said:

Near 90° is COC?

Yep mid July 80s over 61 is spectacular.  Cobalt blues. Beaches near 80 offshore wind. Men in suits taking shore pics for hours. City types near 90 but who cares. No one wants to be there anyways 

[Lava Rock]

0.56". 2.37" since tues

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