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July 2024 Observations and Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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Just now, DavisStraight said:

We stopped there on our way to Acadia and never left, figured we'd go to Acadia another time. Great Italian restaurant there and the weather when we were there was perfect.

Nothing better than sitting out at one of those restaurants with a big ass lobster roll and a cold beer.

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38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not one piece of guidance supports that slight mild down over NE

A warm down is in the cards, most guidance is showing that. not sure about a full-fledged mild down.

Either way, hopefully this results in some wild life-changing severe.  If not a cane

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8 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Nothing better than sitting out at one of those restaurants with a big ass lobster roll and a cold beer.

I got one of the best rolls I’ve ever had in Camden on my way to Acadia. 

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8 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

A warm down is in the cards, most guidance is showing that. not sure about a full-fledged mild down.

Either way, hopefully this results in some wild life-changing severe.  If not a cane

Unfortunately it's looking more and likely that anything tropical is off the table. This cold down means business and will likely cool the SSTs to a point where they will no longer support a cane.

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4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Unfortunately it's looking more and likely that anything tropical is off the table. This cold down means business and will likely cool the SSTs to a point where they will no longer support a cane.

way down to 90/67? here tomorrow. Summer is basically over.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Man, the totals between your area and Williamstown are like 3-5” in short order.

We just crossed over 1” here.  Been more of a steadier soaking rain without anything extreme.

Now have been cranking 3.50”/hr rates the past 15 minutes and quickly over 2” with just torrential rain.

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1 minute ago, mreaves said:

Yikes. That’s just down the hill from me. It’s stopped here for now. 

We are playing catch up.

This has been training over us for a bit now.  Fast increase of 1.50”+ to go from 1” to 2.5”+ and it’s just absolutely pouring.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We are playing catch up.

This has been training over us for a bit now.  Fast increase of 1.50”+ to go from 1” to 2.5”+ and it’s just absolutely pouring.

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Yeah, the radar looked like the boundary shifted a bit north. Still lightening off towards the northeast, like the Orange/Groton area. 

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15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

2.57” ten minutes later.

Now 3.54” just 13 minutes later.

Over 2” in 41 minutes.

Rates of up to 4.25”/hr during that time.

Flash flooding is occurring with driveway washouts.  River is just starting to rage.

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Crazy how localized it can be.  About a mile SE of here in the Lower Village (Cocorahs observer) has had an inch less.

It’s all 2-3”+ but sharp local boundary so far with a mile or two away seeing 1”+ differences.

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The global models missed this event.  They all had the stripe of heaviest rain well north, into Quebec.  The EURO and GFS were so far north with their axis of heavy rain, even on the recent runs.

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The CAMs (convection allowing models) seemed much more accurate.

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River is onto the lawn.  Had to go check it out as this is the perfect storm for high flash water.  I’ve never seen it up this high.  That’s not hyperbole.

We have another 12-18” of subtle rise to go before it’s an issue for us, so I think we’ll be fine.  But there is a RETAINING wall just past the bushes down to the river channel.  This is up like 12 feet and it’s still pouring rain.

The photo doesn’t show the energy.  Whole trees floated by, but couldn’t get one in a photo.  The middle of this is a good 15 feet of swift water on a normal knee to thigh deep maximum.

Over 4” now.  I know many people are completely f*cked if the water level is this high on the knoll.

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3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I’m so praying he just tweaked something.   

He’s having an MRI in the morning. They said it’s definitely spinal related and it may be a slipped disk which they can remove if that’s the case. Based on the situation, I’m thinking/hoping that is the best case scenario. I’d imagine recovery from that shouldn’t be too long. Recovery from his ACL surgery a few years back was like 6-8 months (he healed on the faster side). 

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

River is onto the lawn.  Had to go check it out as this is the perfect storm for high flash water.  I’ve never seen it up this high.  That’s not hyperbole.

We have another 12-18” of subtle rise to go so I think we’ll be fine.  But there is a RETAINING wall just past the bushes down to the river channel.  This is up like 12 feet and it’s still pouring rain.

The photo doesn’t show the energy.  Whole trees floated by, but couldn’t get one in a photo.  The middle of this is a good 15 feet of swift water on a normal knee to thigh deep maximum.

Over 4” now.  I know many people are completely f*cked if the water level is this high on the knoll.

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Sorry. I feel for you guys.  We had a bad day a year ago down here in the Killington/Ludlow area.  We just got our grocery store back last week.  It’s sucked living 45 minutes from a grocery store for a year but so many people suffered through so much more as houses flooded and businesses were ruined.  It’s going to. Be tough tomorrow.  Hopefully no loss of life.

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

River is onto the lawn.  Had to go check it out as this is the perfect storm for high flash water.  I’ve never seen it up this high.  That’s not hyperbole.

Yikes. Probably another hour of heavy stuff to go over there too. People are not sleeping easy tonight in the VT river valleys.

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8 minutes ago, Skivt2 said:

Sorry. I feel for you guys.  We had a bad day a year ago down here in the Killington/Ludlow area.  We just got our grocery store back last week.  It’s sucked living 45 minutes from a grocery store for a year but so many people suffered through so much more as houses flooded and businesses were ruined.  It’s going to. Be tough tomorrow.  Hopefully no loss of life.

Bolton Valley to Richmond area seemed to be in a dire situation on the west slope through the I-89 corridor.

3-6” of rain in tilted terrain over a 3-4 hour period?… after 7-10” in the month of June and 15-20” since April 1st.

Every waterway is exploding right now.

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17 minutes ago, Froude said:

Yikes. Probably another hour of heavy stuff to go over there too. People are not sleeping easy tonight in the VT river valleys.

I’m in full weenie mode.  It’s sinking in that these high water events will continue to become almost expected or “normal” if dew points continue to surge.

I’ve said it before and I’ll keep saying it… you cannot run these moisture levels (dew points and PWATS) into the mountains and expect a different outcome than strong flash flooding.  These events are too frequent.

Many of us in Stowe along the river are not sleeping.  Friends have water against their deck, we have water on the lawn.

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27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’m in full weenie mode.  It’s sinking in that these high water events will continue to become almost expected or “normal” if dew points continue to surge.

I’ve said it before and I’ll keep saying it… you cannot run these moisture levels (dew points and PWATS) into the mountains and expect a different outcome than strong flash flooding.  These events are too frequent.

Many of us in Stowe along the river are not sleeping.  Friends have water against their deck, we have water on the lawn.

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It’s not the safe place to escape climate change that many people perceive it is.  Vermont is scary from a flash flood perspective. Growing up in CT I was used to gradually rising river flooding and ponding water.  The shocking unpredictably and fast impacts of mountain flooding is something completely different.

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