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July 2024 Observations and Discussion

HoarfrostHubb

By HoarfrostHubb,
in New England

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tunafish
tunafish

At the in-laws in Deering, NH.  Lucky timing.

WxWatcher007
WxWatcher007

LFGGGGGG caught the bowing cell south of Albany. Absolute beaut.  

powderfreak
powderfreak

Last patch of snow on the mountain survived until July 1st… but is just hours away from finally ending the winter season. Survived June despite a heatwave and 10” of rain this month. Dog got

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kdxken

kdxken

Posted
Posted
  On 7/8/2024 at 2:57 AM, powderfreak said:

I mean, regardless of the causation, all evidence points to one thing… Warmth. In all regions. The momentum is too much to fight, so you just go with it.

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According to Winter wolf's snowmobile diaries it's happened before and will happen again. Not going to make any conclusions from some stupid weather charts.

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butterfish55

butterfish55

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Posted

As someone who works outside all day, everyday, all year round... Can confirm that I am not looking forward to this week. But I will say I would rather work in this weather than in the freezing cold in January. Thankfully, we don't get many days like that anymore

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 7/8/2024 at 11:46 AM, butterfish55 said:

As someone who works outside all day, everyday, all year round... Can confirm that I am not looking forward to this week. But I will say I would rather work in this weather than in the freezing cold in January. Thankfully, we don't get many days like that anymore

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This is what we should get used to.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 7/8/2024 at 11:46 AM, butterfish55 said:

As someone who works outside all day, everyday, all year round... Can confirm that I am not looking forward to this week. But I will say I would rather work in this weather than in the freezing cold in January. Thankfully, we don't get many days like that anymore

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What dew you dew for work?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
  On 7/8/2024 at 2:57 AM, powderfreak said:

I mean, regardless of the causation, all evidence points to one thing… Warmth. In all regions. The momentum is too much to fight, so you just go with it.

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I'm pretty sure ( personally ... ) at this point that throngs of humanity will literally be dying of heat -related "causality" one day, yet still, those same throngs of humanity will maintain a null mentality as to the why it is happening.

Denial has become it's own religion, with the same predisposition to do so in those who possess the God gene - it's a real thing.  Those that have the trait are something like 5 times more likely to devout ( some sarcasm here but who knows - ).

But something like that is happening. Denialism as a phenomenon perhaps being motivated from that, within the general population density - as though it's manged to accessed that DNA trigger.

It really does seem as though there is a 'faith' in the system correcting itself - like a predisposed belief or conception that that will happen.

By extension...  scheduling the Darwin Award.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 7/8/2024 at 1:02 PM, jbenedet said:

This is how it things are trending climate wise imby. It’s an ugly combination for sure;
 

-New Jersey climo November - mid March

-Southern New England Climo late March to May

-Far interior sections of southeast climo: June to October

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I remember speculating the bold was beginning to happen some 10 or 15 years ago. 

I used to rail on about it but stopped years ago when I realized that crickets don't engage in objective discussion -

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kdxken

kdxken

Posted
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  On 7/8/2024 at 11:46 AM, butterfish55 said:

As someone who works outside all day, everyday, all year round... Can confirm that I am not looking forward to this week. But I will say I would rather work in this weather than in the freezing cold in January. Thankfully, we don't get many days like that anymore

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Give me the cold any day of the week. No deer flies. Didn't want to start my day chumming for them. 

 

20240708_091748.jpg

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 7/8/2024 at 1:18 PM, dendrite said:

DAW is NJ climo in winter?? 
 

Sacramental wine?

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i think he means the NJ of the previous climate era.  that's how i read that.  the NJ of say 1990s has since moved N.  likewise, NJ is now ...  i dunno, Del Marvian from the same previous era and on and so on.

climate is differentiating regardless, and that +delta value requires these "climate regions" migrating N.  I guess folks have opinions on how far that is along the way therein.  sure.  

although i feel there is some usefulness in that distinction the way he describes ( for one ... it's unavoidable - just a matter of time ). however, even if we are there qualitative and quantitatively in that objective reality or not, both regions are still within reach of a Feb 2015. 

like everything, it's a matter of diminishing returns.   at some point we just sort of find ourselves in a point of NO returns.  not there yet -

( although as an afterthought while on the subject last year's huge pan-planetary scaled temperature burst, air, sea and land unilaterally, happening so fast and apparently ... not really 'receding'  - that should give some pause related to 'leaping' )

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JustinRP37

JustinRP37

Posted
Posted
  On 7/8/2024 at 1:34 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

i think he means the NJ of the previous climate era.  that's how i read that.  the NJ of say 1990s has since moved N.  likewise, NJ is now ...  i dunno, Del Marvian from the same previous era and on and so on.

climate is differentiating regardless, and that +delta value requires these "climate regions" migrating N.  I guess folks have opinions on how far that is along the way therein.  sure.  

although i feel there is some usefulness in that distinction the way he describes ( for one ... it's unavoidable - just a matter of time ),  even if we are there qualitative and quantitatively in that objective reality or not, both regions are still within reach of a Feb 2015. 

like everything, it's a matter of diminishing returns.   at some point we just sort of find ourselves in a point of NO return.  not there yet -

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So the Euro won’t end summer in about 10 days? I figured even if we got a brief mild down we would be gearing up for the back half to be as extreme as the first half. It is almost expected at this point that the AC will be on while I’m teaching in October. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 7/8/2024 at 1:40 PM, JustinRP37 said:

So the Euro won’t end summer in about 10 days? I figured even if we got a brief mild down we would be gearing up for the back half to be as extreme as the first half. It is almost expected at this point that the AC will be on while I’m teaching in October. 

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LOL... yeah that sarcasm was well earned by that particular model.

the Euro used to have a definitive tendency to over dig heights into see Canada - like all these models' particular biases more expressive in it's mid and extended range. 

So that was 12z yesterday... 00z backed off, but still appears more trough comparing other guidance sourcing. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
  On 7/8/2024 at 1:49 PM, dendrite said:

I know what he meant and we’re not there yet. We’ve gained maybe a half growing zone in spots. LWM/BED from the 70s may be a better comparison. 

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you think it's that shallow -  interesting.

I think part of the problem is that we are on a sloped curve.  More importantly, the slope is not Y/X ... it is Y^2/X

That affects people, and that in turn effects their 'intuitive impression' of how nature is changing outside the window. 

Personally I think it's further along than one half of a single growing zone - intuitively.  Because of the acceleration in which this shit is all happening, the scalar values may say 1/3 ... 1/2 ... 4/7ths... etc, but 1 year later those are too shallow. 

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butterfish55

butterfish55

Posted
Posted
  On 7/8/2024 at 2:18 PM, kdxken said:
I can see why you'd like warmth better than cold. I'm betting there's a lot of things you can't do with gloves on.
I wear gloves (thin ones) in the summer too. This biggest issue is dealing with trenches and PVC pipe and wire and flex conduit. It all sucks to work with in the cold.
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