monadnocks Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 39 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: cc? climate change - there's a ton of acronyms used here. nw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Just look at Beryl intensify on IR. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 minute ago, BlunderStorm said: Just look at Beryl intensify on IR. Gyatt what a mogger. primed for RI 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Beryl looks on her way to major hurricane status fast. Good thing we will have two aircraft flying into the storm later today. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 The jargon/slang/baby talk or whatever you want to call it is becoming tedious.... 35 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 30 Author Share Posted June 30 GFS is an outlier to its own ensembles. I see 5-6 perturbations with a US direct impact. Most ensembles badly weaken Beryl even before it gets to the Yucatan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Put together some quick, early thoughts. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/06/hurricane-beryl-to-devastate-south.html I think the southern half of the GEFS suite is probably out to lunch.....can see a Gilbert type scenario, but probably not further south than that. Thanks—as you know, always respect your thoughts. We know that the usual June and July sloppy named storm means nothing for the season, but seeing Beryl do this in the context of what has already been a busy season (even if the other invests weren’t named) is a gigantic red flag for what likely lies ahead. We’re not there yet, but I’m increasingly concerned that the Caribbean and possible shear won’t meaningfully slow this down. In a departure from the 12z run, the Euro keeps the buzzsaw going after a brief weakening to take this into Belize/Yucatán before a final hit in the most active tropical hot spot on the planet right now on the Gulf coast of Mexico. Caveats galore, folks: GFS And the newest Euro 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 35 minutes ago, Scott747 said: The jargon/slang/baby talk or whatever you want to call it is becoming tedious.... Thank you, good lord. 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 In other words @CurlyHeadBarrett. Shut that ass up it’s game time 18 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Thanks—as you know, always respect your thoughts. We know that the usual June and July sloppy named storm means nothing for the season, but seeing Beryl do this in the context of what has already been a busy season (even if the other invests weren’t named) is a gigantic red flag for what likely lies ahead. We’re not there yet, but I’m increasingly concerned that the Caribbean and possible shear won’t meaningfully slow this down. In a departure from the 12z run, the Euro keeps the buzzsaw going after a brief weakening to take this into Belize/Yucatán before a final hit in the most active tropical hot spot on the planet right now on the Gulf coast of Mexico. Caveats galore, folks: GFS And the newest Euro Euro is best case for US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Microwave passes continue to steadily improve. Nearly a closed eyewall now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 It’s definitely getting its acted together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 6 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: IT'S OVER That track is serious. If it verifies, Beryl will hit MY backyard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 This season is going to be insane. The only hope is that we see a lot of southern sliders a la 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 I am hugging the Euro. That gfs is a catastrophe. Gfs brings Beryl right into Corpus, and I quake with insane fear at the thought of a Katrina intensity cane striking Corpus. Buda would be obliterated and I would be history. I am not up for this stuff anymore. I am an old man, all played out. If I had the cash ------ I would already be in northern Alberta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 hour ago, Jebman said: That track is serious. If it verifies, Beryl will hit MY backyard. Hopefully she does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Didn’t reach the eyewall jfl 108 KT FL 94KT SFMR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 It’s over pack it up boys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Peak Flight-Level Winds: 108kt at 11:08zPeak SFMR: 94kt at 11:08z Minimum Extrap. Pressure: 968.7mb at 11:12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 PACK IT UP LADS IT’S OVER FOR THR CARIBBEAN Hurricane Beryl Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive ...BERYL IS NOW A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY... 8:00 AM AST Sun Jun 30 Location: 10.6°N 53.9°W Moving: W at 21 mph Min pressure: 968 mb Max sustained: 100 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Cat 3 at 8 am. Aircraft confirmed. Whatever the max potential for this part of the Atlantic is, this storm is going to reach it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Major Hurricane Beryl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 A saving grace for the islands could be the very small *core. Right now the track the entire core missing all the. Bigger islands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 First VDM Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 11:41ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300Storm Name: BerylStorm Number & Year: 02 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 11:12:10ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 10.49N 53.76WB. Center Fix Location: 435 statute miles (700 km) to the ESE (115°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,868m (9,409ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 969mb (28.62 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 170° at 13kts (From the S at 15mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 94kts (108.2mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNW (335°) of center fix at 11:08:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 54° at 108kts (From the NE at 124.3mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNW (335°) of center fix at 11:08:30ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 107kts (123.1mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the SE (141°) of center fix at 11:14:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 227° at 101kts (From the SW at 116.2mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SE (139°) of center fix at 11:15:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 108kts (~ 124.3mph) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNW (335°) from the flight level center at 11:08:30Z General Note About Vortex Messages: - SFMR and flight level winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 17 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: A saving grace for the islands could be the very small *core. Right now the track the entire core missing all the. Bigger islands. A non-saving grace for the islands could be the second hurricane to hit the same spot 3 freaking days later... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 22 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: A saving grace for the islands could be the very small *core. Right now the track the entire core missing all the. Bigger islands. That's good and hope it "threads the needle" to keep the worst winds off any of those islands. I remember when beautiful Grenada was devastated by Ivan 20 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 2 hours ago, Jebman said: I am hugging the Euro. That gfs is a catastrophe. Gfs brings Beryl right into Corpus, and I quake with insane fear at the thought of a Katrina intensity cane striking Corpus. Buda would be obliterated and I would be history. I am not up for this stuff anymore. I am an old man, all played out. If I had the cash ------ I would already be in northern Alberta. At this range it could do anything - exact impact location is impossible to predict. However there are a few things to consider: 1. Stronger storms tend to be more likely to defy model tracks at range. Global models don’t do a good job identifying the core pressure of the storm and therefore use the wrong steering layer. 2. If it makes it into the gulf (not guaranteed given it’s got to thread the needle between Cuba and Yucatan), a very good rule is for everyone in the gulf to be on watch even if you think the storm is nowhere near you. Again steering layers are a big question as fast strengthening or weakening can cause a storm to take a very different track, and in the gulf someone is going to get hit with a landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Per dropsonde, the central pressure is down ~1mb since the VDM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now