Hurricane Beryl - Hurricane Warning - Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass Texas

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

..BERYL STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 10.4N  51.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 10.8N  53.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 11.5N  57.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 12.3N  60.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 13.4N  64.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  02/1200Z 14.6N  67.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 15.6N  71.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 17.0N  78.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 18.5N  85.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[WxWatcher007]

Beryl has a chance to really go to town in the next 24-36 hours. Folks in the islands need to be prepared for a significant hit.

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1100 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

Beryl continues to strengthen rapidly this evening. Cold convective 
cloud tops between -70 to -80 C are now wrapping fully around the 
center after earlier being confined to its southern semicircle. 
After the prior advisory, a late arriving SSMIS microwave pass 
revealed a small closed eyewall now exists. The latest subjective 
and objective intensity estimates range between 65 to 80 kt and 
based on the continued improved structure on satellite imagery, the 
intensity is set at 75 kt, towards the upper end of those estimates. 
As earlier mentioned, both the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunters will investigate Beryl tomorrow morning, which will provide 
our first in-situ data to assess the hurricane. 

Beryl has maintained a just north of due west fast motion this 
evening, estimated at 280/17 kt. An extensive mid-level ridge 
remains positioned poleward of the hurricane, and Beryl should 
maintain a westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar speed 
over the next couple of days. This track will take the hurricane 
over the Windward Islands overnight on Sunday into Monday. A subtle 
weakness in this ridging in the 24-48 hour period should help the 
hurricane gain a bit of latitude before the ridge builds back in 
over the southeastern U.S. by the middle of next week, likely 
resulting in a turn back more westward by the end of the forecast 
period. The NHC forecast track is just a touch left and slower 
compared to the prior advisory, but remains very close to a blend of 
the consensus aids HCCA and TVCN.

Unfortunately Beryl has all the ingredients favorable for continued 
rapid intensification in the short-term. The light to moderate 
easterly shear that had been affecting the system is subsiding, 
while the hurricane remains embedded in a large area of deep-layer 
moisture and over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. The small and 
well-organized inner core likely means the hurricane should take 
full advantage of these pristine conditions, and both the GFS and 
ECMWF versions of SHIPS-RII show rapid intensification indices 7 to 
10 times above climatology. Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast 
will explicitly show rapid intensification over the next day, making 
Beryl a very dangerous Category 3 hurricane before it moves across 
the Windward islands by tomorrow night. Once Beryl enters the 
Caribbean, there could be a marked increase in westerly vertical 
wind shear as a strong easterly low-level jet, common for this time 
of year in the eastern Caribbean Sea, will keep Beryl moving quickly 
westward against lighter upper-level upper-level easterlies 
partially eroded by a deep-layer trough off the Eastern Seaboard. 
Thus some weakening is forecast after 48 hours as Beryl moves 
further into the Caribbean. The NHC intensity forecast remains close 
to the reliable consensus aids and now shows a peak intensity of 110 
kt in 36 hours, though a few of the regional-hurricane models do 
peak Beryl stronger than shown here.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it 
reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, bringing 
destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge.  
Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the Windward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the
Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the 
progress of this system.  Users are reminded that there is large 
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details 
of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 10.4N  51.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 10.8N  53.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 11.5N  57.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 12.3N  60.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 13.4N  64.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  02/1200Z 14.6N  67.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 15.6N  71.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 17.0N  78.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 18.5N  85.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

IT'S OVER

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Beryl has a chance to really go to town in the next 24-36 hours. Folks in the islands need to be prepared for a significant hit.

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1100 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

Beryl continues to strengthen rapidly this evening. Cold convective 
cloud tops between -70 to -80 C are now wrapping fully around the 
center after earlier being confined to its southern semicircle. 
After the prior advisory, a late arriving SSMIS microwave pass 
revealed a small closed eyewall now exists. The latest subjective 
and objective intensity estimates range between 65 to 80 kt and 
based on the continued improved structure on satellite imagery, the 
intensity is set at 75 kt, towards the upper end of those estimates. 
As earlier mentioned, both the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunters will investigate Beryl tomorrow morning, which will provide 
our first in-situ data to assess the hurricane. 

Beryl has maintained a just north of due west fast motion this 
evening, estimated at 280/17 kt. An extensive mid-level ridge 
remains positioned poleward of the hurricane, and Beryl should 
maintain a westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar speed 
over the next couple of days. This track will take the hurricane 
over the Windward Islands overnight on Sunday into Monday. A subtle 
weakness in this ridging in the 24-48 hour period should help the 
hurricane gain a bit of latitude before the ridge builds back in 
over the southeastern U.S. by the middle of next week, likely 
resulting in a turn back more westward by the end of the forecast 
period. The NHC forecast track is just a touch left and slower 
compared to the prior advisory, but remains very close to a blend of 
the consensus aids HCCA and TVCN.

Unfortunately Beryl has all the ingredients favorable for continued 
rapid intensification in the short-term. The light to moderate 
easterly shear that had been affecting the system is subsiding, 
while the hurricane remains embedded in a large area of deep-layer 
moisture and over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. The small and 
well-organized inner core likely means the hurricane should take 
full advantage of these pristine conditions, and both the GFS and 
ECMWF versions of SHIPS-RII show rapid intensification indices 7 to 
10 times above climatology. Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast 
will explicitly show rapid intensification over the next day, making 
Beryl a very dangerous Category 3 hurricane before it moves across 
the Windward islands by tomorrow night. Once Beryl enters the 
Caribbean, there could be a marked increase in westerly vertical 
wind shear as a strong easterly low-level jet, common for this time 
of year in the eastern Caribbean Sea, will keep Beryl moving quickly 
westward against lighter upper-level upper-level easterlies 
partially eroded by a deep-layer trough off the Eastern Seaboard. 
Thus some weakening is forecast after 48 hours as Beryl moves 
further into the Caribbean. The NHC intensity forecast remains close 
to the reliable consensus aids and now shows a peak intensity of 110 
kt in 36 hours, though a few of the regional-hurricane models do 
peak Beryl stronger than shown here.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it 
reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, bringing 
destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge.  
Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the Windward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the
Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the 
progress of this system.  Users are reminded that there is large 
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details 
of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 10.4N  51.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 10.8N  53.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 11.5N  57.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 12.3N  60.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 13.4N  64.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  02/1200Z 14.6N  67.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 15.6N  71.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 17.0N  78.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 18.5N  85.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

 

sheeit this sounds ROUGH ngl

Unfortunately Beryl has all the ingredients favorable for continued 
rapid intensification in the short-term. The light to moderate 
easterly shear that had been affecting the system is subsiding, 
while the hurricane remains embedded in a large area of deep-layer 
moisture and over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. The small and 
well-organized inner core likely means the hurricane should take 
full advantage of these pristine conditions, and both the GFS and 
ECMWF versions of SHIPS-RII show rapid intensification indices 7 to 
10 times above climatology. Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast 
will explicitly show rapid intensification over the next day, making 
Beryl a very dangerous Category 3 hurricane before it moves across 
the Windward islands by tomorrow night. Once Beryl enters the 
Caribbean, there could be a marked increase in westerly vertical 
wind shear as a strong easterly low-level jet, common for this time 
of year in the eastern Caribbean Sea, will keep Beryl moving quickly 
westward against lighter upper-level upper-level easterlies 
partially eroded by a deep-layer trough off the Eastern Seaboard. 
Thus some weakening is forecast after 48 hours as Beryl moves 
further into the Caribbean. The NHC intensity forecast remains close 
to the reliable consensus aids and now shows a peak intensity of 110 
kt in 36 hours, though a few of the regional-hurricane models do 
peak Beryl stronger than shown here.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

[BlunderStorm]

19 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

So if I am reading whatever this is correctly it is projecting a 50% chance of having max winds intensification equal to +45 knots at the 36 hour range marking 120 knot / 138 mph winds. Roughly when it is between Barbados and the windward islands... Yikes.

[Jebman]

37 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

20% CHANCE TO TURN INTO A CATEGORY 5. IT'S SO JOVA FOR SAINTVINCENTCELS AND BARBADOSCELS

This is going to be so Jova for the entire Caribbeancels and the entire GoMexcels. Its so hard to believe this is still only late JUNE!

[Jebman]

So weakening IS expected after Beryl enters the ECARIB. At least that's some good news.

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, Jebman said:

So weakening IS expected after Beryl enters the ECARIB. At least that's some good news.

The shear will be there, it’s just a question of the magnitude. 

[Floydbuster]

 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

17 minutes ago, Jebman said:

This is going to be so Jova for the entire Caribbeancels and the entire GoMexcels. Its so hard to believe this is still only late JUNE!

EXACTLY. And gandy forbid what’s going to come in July, August and September 

[hawkeye_wx]

Beryl is not wasting time tonight.  It has developed a nice eyewall and it is about to pop the eye on satellite.

[Boston Bulldog]

5 hours ago, dbullsfan said:

Does anyone understand a word this person says? Or is it just me


.

As an older Gen Z myself, can confirm I have a vague idea about what they're saying but can also confirm only the deepest corners of brainrot internet speak like this. Get ready to learn Barrettese buddy, or maybe just touch grass. Not quite sure what declaring everything "Joever" does for the overall discussion (it does make the thread a bit unreadable) but I do appreciate the enthusiasm for the field. We all end up on this site for the same reasons.

Regardless, what a show put on so far by Beryl so far. I am glad the medium term outlook beyond initial impacts in the Lesser Antilles is getting more shine on here. Shear awaits, and unfortunately it will impact the system after the Windwards. There is a cap on what the storm can do down the line, it's so difficult to have a Caribbean Cruiser thread the needle, especially in early July. My only pause is that the NHC forecast seems to be flaunting climatology towards the tail end of their forecast, though it makes total sense to not forecast rapid weakening at 96-120 hours. It's foolish to stamp your name on an RI forecast that far out, equally so to do the same for rapid weakening outside of the high latitudes.

[Silver Meteor]

3 hours ago, cptcatz said:

If you're going to bring up global warming, you'll need to account for all global tropical cyclones, not just one basin.  All other basins have been completely dead this year and global cyclone frequency has seen no increase over the past 40 years.

Thank you, a pleasure to finally see a short - to the point, intelligent post without teeny bopper grammar or global warming hysteria.

[Amped]

1 hour ago, Amped said:

The June record for a basin hurricane is 946mb 125mph. Beryl has 25 hrs and 55 minutes left.

So far so good, you got this Beryl, it's all yours, just keep it the pace.

[Normandy]

Thinking has changed.  Given beryl is beginning a RIC and still has more than 24 hours until first landfall, I’m now fairly certain that the islands will face a record breaking June hurricane.  Cannot rule out a push for cat five unfortunately.  Conditions are favorable and this is a nasty vortex.  You can tell how strong it is by the amount of western inflow it is pulling in ahead of it.  Trades have been completely stopped ahead of the storm.

[Boston Bulldog]

32 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

Thank you, a pleasure to finally see a short - to the point, intelligent post without teeny bopper grammar or global warming hysteria.

Agreed, it is necessary to keep a level head when discussing what climate change has the potential to do. There are many effects that climate change has demonstrated, and will continue to demonstrate on TCs. Frequency is NOT one of them. Across all corners of the field, research has discovered several concerning effects on rain rate, intensity, and rapid intensification, but TC frequency and landfall frequency conclusions remain either unclear or firmly outside the current state of the science. 

Apologies for banter outside of Beryl, though I think this is an important distinction. This topic is one that often muddies the waters, and if not properly communicated can lead to the many bright minds researching this field getting discredited by folks who take established research and run with it to places it was never intended to be.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

This storm going to pound town tonight 

[Boston Bulldog]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This storm going to pound town tonight 

Yeah this thing is popping an eye as we speak

[SnowenOutThere]

25 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

Thank you, a pleasure to finally see a short - to the point, intelligent post without teeny bopper grammar or global warming hysteria.

Global warming deserves to put people in hysterics. Have you seen the ssts that are under beryl right now? I’d have to wager they are probably playing a significant role in the current rapid intensification going on.

[Boston Bulldog]

This isn't just a random warm spot in the central convection. This is the eye. Also note the eastward expansion of the CDO, indicating that easterly shear has abated.

Wish we had new SSMIS microwave imagery, what a poor performance by those polar orbiting satellites today. Infrequent passes and several misses during critical moments of organization

EDIT: Animation shows these CBs rotating around the eye moving upshear without a problem. IR satellite can often lead to the illusion of intensification, but the hallmarks of organization are all present. This storm looked pretty good last night, but it still wasn't totally stacked yet. This thing probably stacked about 18 hours afterward, definitely on the early end of my range

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

45 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

 global warming hysteria.

?

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

18 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Global warming deserves to put people in hysterics. Have you seen the ssts that are under beryl right now? I’d have to wager they are probably playing a significant role in the current rapid intensification going on.

This.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

54 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

As an older Gen Z myself, can confirm I have a vague idea about what they're saying

thank YOU bhai

54 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

but can also confirm only the deepest corners of brainrot internet speak like this.
 

do you think I am a permarotter jfl

54 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Get ready to learn Barrettese buddy, or maybe just touch grass.
 

YES! Also mirin the term Barrettese

54 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Not quite sure what declaring everything "Joever" does for the overall discussion (it does make the thread a bit unreadable) but I do appreciate the enthusiasm for the field. We all end up on this site for the same reasons.

joever/jova means “over”

54 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Regardless, what a show put on so far by Beryl so far. I am glad the medium term outlook beyond initial impacts in the Lesser Antilles is getting more shine on here. Shear awaits, and unfortunately it will impact the system after the Windwards. There is a cap on what the storm can do down the line, it's so difficult to have a Caribbean Cruiser thread the needle, especially in early July. My only pause is that the NHC forecast seems to be flaunting climatology towards the tail end of their forecast, though it makes total sense to not forecast rapid weakening at 96-120 hours. It's foolish to stamp your name on an RI forecast that far out, equally so to do the same for rapid weakening outside of the high latitudes.

What do you think is the maximum possible peak for Beryl? 

[Jebman]

Max possible peak for Beryl is Cat 5 165 mph sustained winds BUT it will weaken in the Caribbean. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

If this storm does wind up like some of the globals suggest, a US threat in the long range, the thread might get busy enough for storm mode, and some of the random posts or arguments over CC might get deleted.

 

EDIT TO ADD:  CC is Climate Change.  Something is causing ever busier hurricane seasons.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

Just now, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

If this storm does wind up like some of the globals suggest, a US threat in the long range, the thread might get busy enough for storm mode, and some of the random posts or arguments over CC might get deleted.

cc?

[Amped]

HAFS-B has 128kt 953mb peak at 09z Monday.   That wind maybe a little high given the pressure.  HMON is 953mb 117kt at 06z Monday.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Put together some quick, early thoughts.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/06/hurricane-beryl-to-devastate-south.html

I think the southern half of the GEFS suite is probably out to lunch.....can see a Gilbert type scenario, but probably not further south than that.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

Gyatt this is brootal from HAFS B