Hurricane Beryl - Hurricane Warning - Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass Texas

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

33 minutes ago, Normandy said:

 Beryl will be gone after this year 

You positive?

[NeffsvilleWx]

Looks to me like both AF and NOAA might have dispatched 2 birds apiece from CONUS to the carib.

[cptcatz]

28 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

You positive?

If it hits the islands as a major there's a good chance it will be retired. Here's a question for the history buffs: how many major hurricanes have made landfall and not retired? Idalia from last year fits that bill. Any others?

[WxWatcher007]

Latest microwave imagery suggests Beryl is close to completing an eyewall. Very small and quite symmetrical nascent inner core. Still some work to do though.

 

[Windspeed]

If it hits the islands as a major there's a good chance it will be retired. Here's a question for the history buffs: how many major hurricanes have made landfall and not retired? Idalia from last year fits that bill. Any others?

That's a question that would take several hours of research to answer. We started naming storms in the 1950s. Every few years, there is such a scenario. I'd guess there are two to four per decade. Perhaps 20-25 major unretired landfalls since naming began.

[Windspeed]

Latest microwave imagery suggests Beryl is close to completing an eyewall. Very small and quite symmetrical nascent inner core. Still some work to do though.

 

The strong E to ENE 700-600hpa flow is allowing some SAL-influenced airmass into Beyrl's core, hence the microwave structure. Still a steady strengthening rate but perhaps deters any rapid intensification until that flow can ease up or Beryl's core structure can expand some and better shield against it.

[Jebman]

7 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Beryl might unironically mog the SAL

If that obtains, we better start evaccing the entire Gulf Coast and all of the Florida Coast.

Because if Beryl does not get weakened, and it gets into that GoMex with all that warm shallow water, all of us in the South are pretty much fooked. Especially if Beryl turns out to go full on MOG on us.

[CHSVol]

From ChatGPT:
 

As of 2023, eight major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) have made landfall in the contiguous United States without having their names retired. These hurricanes are:

1. Hurricane Eloise (1975)
2. Hurricane Emily (1993)
3. Hurricane Bret (1999)
4. Hurricane Jeanne (1980)
5. Hurricane Kate (1985)
6. Hurricane Jeanne (2004)
7. Hurricane Otto (2016)
8. Hurricane Zeta (2020)

[cardinalland]

ChatGPT is completely wrong.

I went through the list of US landfalls and found 4 major hurricane landfalls which weren't retired:

1. Hurricane Gracie (1959)

2. Hurricane Bret (1999)

3. Hurricane Zeta (2020)

4. Hurricane Idalia (2023)

[Windspeed]

From ChatGPT:
 
As of 2023, eight major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) have made landfall in the contiguous United States without having their names retired. These hurricanes are:
1. Hurricane Eloise (1975)
2. Hurricane Emily (1993)
3. Hurricane Bret (1999)
4. Hurricane Jeanne (1980)
5. Hurricane Kate (1985)
6. Hurricane Jeanne (2004)
7. Hurricane Otto (2016)
8. Hurricane Zeta (2020)

You referenced the islands, and assuming NA plus central/Latin, that number has names that didn't strike the contiguous US.

[cardinalland]

I don't know of a database of all Atlantic major hurricane landfalls, but it's an interesting question for sure.

As for the Lesser Antilles, I used https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/ to map all major hurricanes which tracked through the Lesser Antilles. Every single storm to pass through the Lesser Antilles as a major hurricane since 1954 has been retired *EDIT: except for Hurricane Omar of 2008.

[WxWatcher007]

17 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Latest microwave imagery suggests Beryl is close to completing an eyewall. Very small and quite symmetrical nascent inner core. Still some work to do though.

 

The strong E to ENE 700-600hpa flow is allowing some SAL-influenced airmass into Beyrl's core, hence the microwave structure. Still a steady strengthening rate but perhaps deters any rapid intensification until that flow can ease up or Beryl's core structure can expand some and better shield against it.

Here’s a nice illustration of that

 

[CHSVol]

12 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

18 minutes ago, CHSVol said:

From ChatGPT:
 
As of 2023, eight major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) have made landfall in the contiguous United States without having their names retired. These hurricanes are:
1. Hurricane Eloise (1975)
2. Hurricane Emily (1993)
3. Hurricane Bret (1999)
4. Hurricane Jeanne (1980)
5. Hurricane Kate (1985)
6. Hurricane Jeanne (2004)
7. Hurricane Otto (2016)
8. Hurricane Zeta (2020)

You referenced the islands, and assuming NA plus central/Latin, that number has names that didn't strike the contiguous US.

I asked it to reevaluate:

To accurately address your query, let's verify each hurricane:

1. **Hurricane Eloise (1975)**
2. **Hurricane Bret (1999)**
3. **Hurricane Kate (1985)**

[cardinalland]

1 minute ago, CHSVol said:

I asked it to reevaluate:

To accurately address your query, let's verify each hurricane:

1. **Hurricane Eloise (1975)**
2. **Hurricane Bret (1999)**
3. **Hurricane Kate (1985)**

Haha it's still wrong! Eloise was retired and Kate made landfall as a Category 2. These AIs really aren't all they're cracked up to be

[CHSVol]

3 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

Haha it's still wrong! Eloise was retired and Kate made landfall as a Category 2. These AIs really aren't all they're cracked up to be

Dang you’re right. I figure this would be a straight forward question but clearly not!

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

3 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

Haha it's still wrong! Eloise was retired and Kate made landfall as a Category 2. These AIs really aren't all they're cracked up to be

 

6 minutes ago, CHSVol said:

I asked it to reevaluate:

To accurately address your query, let's verify each hurricane:

1. **Hurricane Eloise (1975)**
2. **Hurricane Bret (1999)**
3. **Hurricane Kate (1985)**

 

27 minutes ago, Jebman said:

If that obtains, we better start evaccing the entire Gulf Coast and all of the Florida Coast.

Because if Beryl does not get weakened, and it gets into that GoMex with all that warm shallow water, all of us in the South are pretty much fooked. Especially if Beryl turns out to go full on MOG on us.

JFL

BERYL IS A HURRICANE NOW

IT'S JOVA FOR CARIBBEANCELS

 

Hurricane Beryl	Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive
...BERYL IS NOW A HURRICANE AND FORECAST TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...

[cptcatz]

27 minutes ago, CHSVol said:

From ChatGPT:
 

As of 2023, eight major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) have made landfall in the contiguous United States without having their names retired. These hurricanes are:

1. Hurricane Eloise (1975)
2. Hurricane Emily (1993)
3. Hurricane Bret (1999)
4. Hurricane Jeanne (1980)
5. Hurricane Kate (1985)
6. Hurricane Jeanne (2004)
7. Hurricane Otto (2016)
8. Hurricane Zeta (2020)

Jeanne 2004 was retired 

[Windspeed]

Haha it's still wrong! Eloise was retired and Kate made landfall as a Category 2. These AIs really aren't all they're cracked up to be

I would rather just pour through the landfall record each year to be sure, but perhaps my guess of 20-25 is probably too high. Cat 1 & 2s, sure, but major landfalls are obviously rarer and, more often than not, get retired. I'll look into it when I've more time.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

31 minutes ago, Jebman said:

If that obtains, we better start evaccing the entire Gulf Coast and all of the Florida Coast.

Because if Beryl does not get weakened, and it gets into that GoMex with all that warm shallow water, all of us in the South are pretty much fooked. Especially if Beryl turns out to go full on MOG on us.

Beryl is now a hurricane according to the NHC

Who put dianabol and HGH in the Atlantic Ocean?

[Windspeed]

24 hours from classification to hurricane aint too shabby...

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

20 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

I don't know of a database of all Atlantic major hurricane landfalls, but it's an interesting question for sure.

As for the Lesser Antilles, I used https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/ to map all major hurricanes which tracked through the Lesser Antilles. Every single storm to pass through the Lesser Antilles as a major hurricane since 1954 has been retired *EDIT: except for Hurricane Omar of 2008.

Let's find a hurricane you're interested in.

Why does this phrase make me cage so hard IRL?

 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

Just now, Windspeed said:

24 hours from classification to hurricane aint too shabby...

Not at all

Beryl is on the hurricane version of dbol and hgh

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

If it hits the islands as a major there's a good chance it will be retired. Here's a question for the history buffs: how many major hurricanes have made landfall and not retired? Idalia from last year fits that bill. Any others?

 

emily

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

934mb/140 kt Cat 5 south of Haiti on the 12z HWRF jfl if this verifies I will turn into Hexum

[Windspeed]

Of note...

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

Of note...
https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1807152153745674330?t=MovmwhOEl86POrs4m_ccuA&s=19

 

 

[cardinalland]

12 minutes ago, CHSVol said:

Dang you’re right. I figure this would be a straight forward question but clearly not!

It's an interesting case study in the effectiveness of AI right now!

14 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

I would rather just pour through the landfall record esch year to be sure, but perhaps my guess of 20-25 is probably too high. Cat 1 & 2s, sure, but major landfalls are obviously rarer and, more often than not, get retired. I'll look into it when I've more time.

Yeah, only 4 in the US since 1950! But I would imagine there's a few more which made landfall as C3+ in other regions.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

13 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

It's an interesting case study in the effectiveness of AI right now!

Yeah, only 4 in the US since 1950! But I would imagine there's a few more which made landfall as C3+ in other regions.

 

have you tried other LLMs? I heard claude mogs

[Jebman]

6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

@CurlyHeadBarrett it’s very concerning, even outright frightening, to see this level of activity this early in that part of the basin. 

Fixed.

[Jebman]

51 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

 

We are setting more brand new historical markers.