CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 33 minutes ago, Normandy said: Beryl will be gone after this year You positive? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Looks to me like both AF and NOAA might have dispatched 2 birds apiece from CONUS to the carib. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 28 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: You positive? If it hits the islands as a major there's a good chance it will be retired. Here's a question for the history buffs: how many major hurricanes have made landfall and not retired? Idalia from last year fits that bill. Any others? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Latest microwave imagery suggests Beryl is close to completing an eyewall. Very small and quite symmetrical nascent inner core. Still some work to do though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 If it hits the islands as a major there's a good chance it will be retired. Here's a question for the history buffs: how many major hurricanes have made landfall and not retired? Idalia from last year fits that bill. Any others?That's a question that would take several hours of research to answer. We started naming storms in the 1950s. Every few years, there is such a scenario. I'd guess there are two to four per decade. Perhaps 20-25 major unretired landfalls since naming began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Latest microwave imagery suggests Beryl is close to completing an eyewall. Very small and quite symmetrical nascent inner core. Still some work to do though. The strong E to ENE 700-600hpa flow is allowing some SAL-influenced airmass into Beyrl's core, hence the microwave structure. Still a steady strengthening rate but perhaps deters any rapid intensification until that flow can ease up or Beryl's core structure can expand some and better shield against it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 7 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Beryl might unironically mog the SAL If that obtains, we better start evaccing the entire Gulf Coast and all of the Florida Coast. Because if Beryl does not get weakened, and it gets into that GoMex with all that warm shallow water, all of us in the South are pretty much fooked. Especially if Beryl turns out to go full on MOG on us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHSVol Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 From ChatGPT: As of 2023, eight major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) have made landfall in the contiguous United States without having their names retired. These hurricanes are: 1. Hurricane Eloise (1975) 2. Hurricane Emily (1993) 3. Hurricane Bret (1999) 4. Hurricane Jeanne (1980) 5. Hurricane Kate (1985) 6. Hurricane Jeanne (2004) 7. Hurricane Otto (2016) 8. Hurricane Zeta (2020) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 ChatGPT is completely wrong. I went through the list of US landfalls and found 4 major hurricane landfalls which weren't retired: 1. Hurricane Gracie (1959) 2. Hurricane Bret (1999) 3. Hurricane Zeta (2020) 4. Hurricane Idalia (2023) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 From ChatGPT: As of 2023, eight major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) have made landfall in the contiguous United States without having their names retired. These hurricanes are: 1. Hurricane Eloise (1975) 2. Hurricane Emily (1993) 3. Hurricane Bret (1999) 4. Hurricane Jeanne (1980) 5. Hurricane Kate (1985) 6. Hurricane Jeanne (2004) 7. Hurricane Otto (2016) 8. Hurricane Zeta (2020)You referenced the islands, and assuming NA plus central/Latin, that number has names that didn't strike the contiguous US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 I don't know of a database of all Atlantic major hurricane landfalls, but it's an interesting question for sure. As for the Lesser Antilles, I used https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/ to map all major hurricanes which tracked through the Lesser Antilles. Every single storm to pass through the Lesser Antilles as a major hurricane since 1954 has been retired *EDIT: except for Hurricane Omar of 2008. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 17 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Latest microwave imagery suggests Beryl is close to completing an eyewall. Very small and quite symmetrical nascent inner core. Still some work to do though. The strong E to ENE 700-600hpa flow is allowing some SAL-influenced airmass into Beyrl's core, hence the microwave structure. Still a steady strengthening rate but perhaps deters any rapid intensification until that flow can ease up or Beryl's core structure can expand some and better shield against it. Here’s a nice illustration of that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHSVol Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 12 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 18 minutes ago, CHSVol said: From ChatGPT: As of 2023, eight major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) have made landfall in the contiguous United States without having their names retired. These hurricanes are: 1. Hurricane Eloise (1975) 2. Hurricane Emily (1993) 3. Hurricane Bret (1999) 4. Hurricane Jeanne (1980) 5. Hurricane Kate (1985) 6. Hurricane Jeanne (2004) 7. Hurricane Otto (2016) 8. Hurricane Zeta (2020) You referenced the islands, and assuming NA plus central/Latin, that number has names that didn't strike the contiguous US. I asked it to reevaluate: To accurately address your query, let's verify each hurricane: 1. **Hurricane Eloise (1975)** 2. **Hurricane Bret (1999)** 3. **Hurricane Kate (1985)** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 1 minute ago, CHSVol said: I asked it to reevaluate: To accurately address your query, let's verify each hurricane: 1. **Hurricane Eloise (1975)** 2. **Hurricane Bret (1999)** 3. **Hurricane Kate (1985)** Haha it's still wrong! Eloise was retired and Kate made landfall as a Category 2. These AIs really aren't all they're cracked up to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHSVol Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 3 minutes ago, cardinalland said: Haha it's still wrong! Eloise was retired and Kate made landfall as a Category 2. These AIs really aren't all they're cracked up to be Dang you’re right. I figure this would be a straight forward question but clearly not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 3 minutes ago, cardinalland said: Haha it's still wrong! Eloise was retired and Kate made landfall as a Category 2. These AIs really aren't all they're cracked up to be 6 minutes ago, CHSVol said: I asked it to reevaluate: To accurately address your query, let's verify each hurricane: 1. **Hurricane Eloise (1975)** 2. **Hurricane Bret (1999)** 3. **Hurricane Kate (1985)** 27 minutes ago, Jebman said: If that obtains, we better start evaccing the entire Gulf Coast and all of the Florida Coast. Because if Beryl does not get weakened, and it gets into that GoMex with all that warm shallow water, all of us in the South are pretty much fooked. Especially if Beryl turns out to go full on MOG on us. JFL BERYL IS A HURRICANE NOW IT'S JOVA FOR CARIBBEANCELS Hurricane Beryl Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive ...BERYL IS NOW A HURRICANE AND FORECAST TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 27 minutes ago, CHSVol said: From ChatGPT: As of 2023, eight major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) have made landfall in the contiguous United States without having their names retired. These hurricanes are: 1. Hurricane Eloise (1975) 2. Hurricane Emily (1993) 3. Hurricane Bret (1999) 4. Hurricane Jeanne (1980) 5. Hurricane Kate (1985) 6. Hurricane Jeanne (2004) 7. Hurricane Otto (2016) 8. Hurricane Zeta (2020) Jeanne 2004 was retired Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Haha it's still wrong! Eloise was retired and Kate made landfall as a Category 2. These AIs really aren't all they're cracked up to beI would rather just pour through the landfall record each year to be sure, but perhaps my guess of 20-25 is probably too high. Cat 1 & 2s, sure, but major landfalls are obviously rarer and, more often than not, get retired. I'll look into it when I've more time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 31 minutes ago, Jebman said: If that obtains, we better start evaccing the entire Gulf Coast and all of the Florida Coast. Because if Beryl does not get weakened, and it gets into that GoMex with all that warm shallow water, all of us in the South are pretty much fooked. Especially if Beryl turns out to go full on MOG on us. Beryl is now a hurricane according to the NHC Who put dianabol and HGH in the Atlantic Ocean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 24 hours from classification to hurricane aint too shabby... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 20 minutes ago, cardinalland said: I don't know of a database of all Atlantic major hurricane landfalls, but it's an interesting question for sure. As for the Lesser Antilles, I used https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/ to map all major hurricanes which tracked through the Lesser Antilles. Every single storm to pass through the Lesser Antilles as a major hurricane since 1954 has been retired *EDIT: except for Hurricane Omar of 2008. Let's find a hurricane you're interested in. Why does this phrase make me cage so hard IRL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Just now, Windspeed said: 24 hours from classification to hurricane aint too shabby... Not at all Beryl is on the hurricane version of dbol and hgh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: If it hits the islands as a major there's a good chance it will be retired. Here's a question for the history buffs: how many major hurricanes have made landfall and not retired? Idalia from last year fits that bill. Any others? emily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 934mb/140 kt Cat 5 south of Haiti on the 12z HWRF jfl if this verifies I will turn into Hexum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Of note... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: Of note...https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1807152153745674330?t=MovmwhOEl86POrs4m_ccuA&s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 12 minutes ago, CHSVol said: Dang you’re right. I figure this would be a straight forward question but clearly not! It's an interesting case study in the effectiveness of AI right now! 14 minutes ago, Windspeed said: I would rather just pour through the landfall record esch year to be sure, but perhaps my guess of 20-25 is probably too high. Cat 1 & 2s, sure, but major landfalls are obviously rarer and, more often than not, get retired. I'll look into it when I've more time. Yeah, only 4 in the US since 1950! But I would imagine there's a few more which made landfall as C3+ in other regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 13 minutes ago, cardinalland said: It's an interesting case study in the effectiveness of AI right now! Yeah, only 4 in the US since 1950! But I would imagine there's a few more which made landfall as C3+ in other regions. have you tried other LLMs? I heard claude mogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: @CurlyHeadBarrett it’s very concerning, even outright frightening, to see this level of activity this early in that part of the basin. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 51 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: We are setting more brand new historical markers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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