40/70 Benchmark Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Pretty satisfied with my call...I think being an hour too slow with landfall at Matagorda cost me that 15 MPH between forecast landfall intensity and actual. Hurricane Beryl Well Forecast Overall Landfall Locale Perfectly Predicted While Intensity Slightly Overestimated The Eastern Mass Weather Final Call for Hurricane Beryl was for a landfall in Matagorda, TX at approximately 6 AM EDT Monday as a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 95 MPH. Beryl made landfall in Matagorda, TX at 5 AM EDT as a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 MPH and a minimum central pressure of 979 MB. Obviously the forecast landfall location was perfect, as it made landfall at Matagorda one hour ahead of schedule. However, the landfall intensity left a bit to be desired, as it ended up being too aggressive at 95 MPH maximum sustained winds as opposed to the landfall intensity of 80 MPH. This is due to the fact that it simply did not have quite as much time to work the dry air out of the circulation as anticipated. Thus while the general forecast philosophy that Beryl would remain a minimal hurricane due to this environmental limitation was correct overall, the fact that it moved slightly faster than anticipated likely made the difference between the 80 and 95 MPH landfall intensity respectively since it had begun intensifying rapidly at landfall. Timing is everything with a rapidly intensifying system- Final Grade: A- 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 I think there is a chance the winds could be bumped up to 85 or 90 mph in the final report. Those were some furious winds along the coast. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Nailed the track, but too strong (95 vs 80 MPH), as suspected. Meh. If this thing had another 12-24 hours....woof. I am with you. Track was more or less exactly where I thought.. however, I seemed to have significantly overestimated the top winds. That withstanding, I would argue that I - you especially- was not quite as far off as it would look. The energy within this storm was quite impressive and had this tightened up just a bit more, Cat 2 would have been easily hit, perhaps even high end Cat 2. As you said, 12 more hours and well... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 4 hours ago, Amped said: Seems to always happen with fast moving systems. IKE produced lots of 70mph+ gusts in PA and OH Was Beryl considered to be 'fast moving'? Afaik, the storm was only going about 10 mph when it hit the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 5 hours ago, gymengineer said: That remnant eyewall is *still* producing gusts above 80 mph about 100 miles inland (Conroe) via the latest NHC position update. 4 hours ago, Normandy said: I think the upper dynamics are so incredible that’s it’s basically turning this system into an inland hurricane. Family in Houston still can’t go outside because the winds are so strong This seems to be happening quite frequently with a good bit of these landfalling GOM storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 10 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I think there is a chance the winds could be bumped up to 85 or 90 mph in the final report. Those were some furious winds along the coast. Yea, we won't know officially for a few months, I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Gotta love the mini hurricane looking tornadic tropical supercells 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 For those interested. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Pretty satisfied with my call...I think being an hour too slow with landfall at Matagorda cost me that 15 MPH between forecast landfall intensity and actual. Hurricane Beryl Well Forecast Overall Landfall Locale Perfectly Predicted While Intensity Slightly Overestimated The Eastern Mass Weather Final Call for Hurricane Beryl was for a landfall in Matagorda, TX at approximately 6 AM EDT Monday as a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 95 MPH. Beryl made landfall in Matagorda, TX at 5 AM EDT as a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 MPH and a minimum central pressure of 979 MB. Obviously the forecast landfall location was perfect, as it made landfall at Matagorda one hour ahead of schedule. However, the landfall intensity left a bit to be desired, as it ended up being too aggressive at 95 MPH maximum sustained winds as opposed to the landfall intensity of 80 MPH. This is due to the fact that it simply did not have quite as much time to work the dry air out of the circulation as anticipated. Thus while the general forecast philosophy that Beryl would remain a minimal hurricane due to this environmental limitation was correct overall, the fact that it moved slightly faster than anticipated likely made the difference between the 80 and 95 MPH landfall intensity respectively since it had begun intensifying rapidly at landfall. Timing is everything with a rapidly intensifying system- Final Grade: A- Benchmark, snowstorms in the SNE are not the only thing you are good at forecasting! Wow, tropical storms too! Excellent job! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 We gotta keep a weather eye on those Invests. Gonna be a very busy summer and fall in the tropics 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 The 19th video update on this very historic early season Atlantic Hurricane. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Multi-model ensemble tracks for the 95L/Beryl from onset to final landfall.https://x.com/burgwx/status/1810425710223483086?t=ZBTiQmbgg0oO73E-KiNHvw&s=19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 3 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Multi-model ensemble tracks for the 95L/Beryl from onset to final landfall.https://x.com/burgwx/status/1810425710223483086?t=ZBTiQmbgg0oO73E-KiNHvw&s=19 Haha I was just about to post the same thing. Power just restored here. Wow at the severe outbreak today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: Multi-model ensemble tracks for the 95L/Beryl from onset to final landfall.https://x.com/burgwx/status/1810425710223483086?t=ZBTiQmbgg0oO73E-KiNHvw&s=19 It isn’t included in these but the ICON was best of the more respected globals with the W GOM landfall in C TX. This goes back to the 12Z 6/30 run into Galveston! It then had runs up into LA or near the TX/LA border as late as the 6Z on 7/3, which weren’t good. However, starting on 12Z 7/3 (when ICON hit C TX while GFS, Euro, CMC, and UKMET were into NE MX) onward ICON was always between Galveston and Corpus. So, major kudos! CMC wasn’t consistently TX til 0Z of 7/6. UKMET wasn’t til 12Z of 7/5. Euro/GFS wasn’t til 0Z of 7/5. (ICON also did well with Ian for FL and SC landfalls (2nd best to UKMET)). JMA gets a well deserved honorable mention as it was similar to the ICON with its 12Z 6/30 run and had several more runs (12Z runs on 6/2, 3, 4) into Galveston followed by 6/5-6 at CC. Actual landfall wasn’t up at upper TX coast but still the 6/30 and 7/2-4 JMA runs into Galveston were much closer to actual landfall than GFS/Euro/UKMET then. Only the ICON was overall about as close. So, my ratings of globals for W GOM portion of track: Best: ICON and JMA Next best but not close: GFS/Euro Further back: UKMET Worst: CMC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 4 hours ago, etudiant said: Was Beryl considered to be 'fast moving'? Afaik, the storm was only going about 10 mph when it hit the coast. I did think it was moving faster for some reason. Anyway the winds didn't make it too far inland. Looks likes they've died down considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Parents have a 6.5” rain gauge. It overflowed an hour ago and it’s still raining over them in East Texas. Can’t reminder a storm hitting the gulf that caused so many problems in NE TX. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Great Scott!!! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: There were reported wind gusts in Houston that are much higher than what the map depicts. Both Houston airports recorded 80 plus MPH gusts. Maybe the map is in Knots. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 20 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: There were reported wind gusts in Houston that are much higher than what the map depicts. Both Houston airports recorded 80 plus MPH gusts. Maybe the map is in Knots. Good catch. Hagen pointed it out so maybe we get a new map. I like the layout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 There were several tornadoes in ET that destroyed homes (a friend’s mom was one ugh) that aren’t depicted either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 10 hours ago, Windspeed said: Multi-model ensemble tracks for the 95L/Beryl from onset to final landfall.https://x.com/burgwx/status/1810425710223483086?t=ZBTiQmbgg0oO73E-KiNHvw&s=19 Overall models in regard to track was excellent .... intensity forecast was okay just a bit off the charts Islands to Jamaica in regard to extreme intensity and how long it took to weaken down near Jamica and Grand Cayman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 12 hours ago, canderson said: Parents have a 6.5” rain gauge. It overflowed an hour ago and it’s still raining over them in East Texas. Can’t reminder a storm hitting the gulf that caused so many problems in NE TX. I ended up with 1" on Sunday and 5.25" yesterday on the north side of Longview. The tornado warnings yesterday were something else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 1 hour ago, cstrunk said: I ended up with 1" on Sunday and 5.25" yesterday on the north side of Longview. The tornado warnings yesterday were something else. No damage for you I hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 In Bedford, TX. They have electricity here. No idea when power is back, we'll probably head back when customers w/o power drops but it looks like about a third that lost power is already online. A little generator is about $400 apparently. We'll buy some box fans as well for next time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Ongoing electrical infrastructure woes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 23 hours ago, canderson said: No damage for you I hope? Luckily, none for me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 Inlaws had a portable generator but only a day's worth of fuel and everything was closed yesterday. They are in Buda, we are by DFW airport. May be here for a day or three more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Lots of Tornado warnings in central NY and Nrn Pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 4 minutes ago, Amped said: Lots of Tornado warnings in central NY and Nrn Pa Already the 2nd most tornado warnings in a single day for the state at 22 per IEM. 5/31 1998 was the highest single day record with 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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