Jebman Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 This is no time for a Jamaica vacation, either. That place will get severely mogged. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Beryl is quite impressive and anomalous right now. We all know the E-Carib "graveyard" well, and this system seems uniquely positioned to put up a fight against the July status quo. Remember Hurricane Danny in 2015? It is possible for early season storms to ramp up in the MDR (granted Danny was in August but the environment we see now is quite August like). It is also very easy for these nascent hurricanes to get shredded apart in the Caribbean. Danny was a small Cat 3 with impressive organization, and it was shredded to a vortically stretched mess by the time it made it to the Windwards. For Beryl, trade winds and shear are looking to pick up. This should shave the storm down from a stacked system to one that is tilting vertically. Nonetheless, at least for now it seems like all systems go for the short term forecast. Conventional thinking would say that the peak of this system should occur just short of the Windward islands, though anomalous begets anomalous. Watch for vertical stacking over the next 18-36 hours... I can't recall such intrigue this early in the season since Elsa in '21, and Beryl's short term environment is much more impressive than what we saw back then. Despite this I remain skeptical of its long term prospects. A stronger storm gets lifted poleward into the Greater Antilles, a weaker storm gets caught up in strong easterly flow and its local vorticity max gets attenuated. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Beryl is looking fierce right now. I’d say a 45-50 mph tropical storm still intensifying at a fast clip. What’s most intimidating is the total lack of other clouds around the system. Once the system fully stacks we are going to see some beautiful outflow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 On 6/29/2024 at 2:33 AM, tiger_deF said: Beryl is looking fierce right now. I’d say a 45-50 mph tropical storm still intensifying at a fast clip. What’s most intimidating is the total lack of other clouds around the system. Once the system fully stacks we are going to see some beautiful outflow. I would attribute the lack of banding structures to Beryl's young age AND the prominence of the Saharan Air Layer nearby. Hard to expand a moist convective envelope when the desert is a few kilometers away to the north. The MDR is dry, but favorable. There isn't much of a mechanism to push this SAL into the system...yet. If there was one thing that can stop this system from achieving the lofty heights the models currently show, it's the Saharan Dust in tandem with quickening easterlies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Shrimp mode... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 1 hour ago, Boston Bulldog said: Beryl is quite impressive and anomalous right now. We all know the E-Carib "graveyard" well, and this system seems uniquely positioned to put up a fight against the July status quo. Remember Hurricane Danny in 2015? It is possible for early season storms to ramp up in the MDR (granted Danny was in August but the environment we see now is quite August like). It is also very easy for these nascent hurricanes to get shredded apart in the Caribbean. Danny was a small Cat 3 with impressive organization, and it was shredded to a vortically stretched mess by the time it made it to the Windwards. For Beryl, trade winds and shear are looking to pick up. This should shave the storm down from a stacked system to one that is tilting vertically. Nonetheless, at least for now it seems like all systems go for the short term forecast. Conventional thinking would say that the peak of this system should occur just short of the Windward islands, though anomalous begets anomalous. Watch for vertical stacking over the next 18-36 hours... I can't recall such intrigue this early in the season since Elsa in '21, and Beryl's short term environment is much more impressive than what we saw back then. Despite this I remain skeptical of its long term prospects. A stronger storm gets lifted poleward into the Greater Antilles, a weaker storm gets caught up in strong easterly flow and its local vorticity max gets attenuated. I thought about Hurricane Danny in 2015, but remember...Danny was in August during a very strong El Nino period and had colder than average sea surface temperatures and very high wind shear, likely even higher than what Beryl *might* encounter down the road. Beryl is in abnormally favorable conditions during what is expected to be an extremely active and favorable hurricane season, where CSU is forecasting that we will exhaust the name list. To me, that makes Beryl a much greater threat to the Caribbean than Danny ever was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 2 hours ago, Boston Bulldog said: Beryl is quite impressive and anomalous right now. We all know the E-Carib "graveyard" well, and this system seems uniquely positioned to put up a fight against the July status quo. Remember Hurricane Danny in 2015? It is possible for early season storms to ramp up in the MDR (granted Danny was in August but the environment we see now is quite August like). It is also very easy for these nascent hurricanes to get shredded apart in the Caribbean. Danny was a small Cat 3 with impressive organization, and it was shredded to a vortically stretched mess by the time it made it to the Windwards. For Beryl, trade winds and shear are looking to pick up. This should shave the storm down from a stacked system to one that is tilting vertically. Nonetheless, at least for now it seems like all systems go for the short term forecast. Conventional thinking would say that the peak of this system should occur just short of the Windward islands, though anomalous begets anomalous. Watch for vertical stacking over the next 18-36 hours... I can't recall such intrigue this early in the season since Elsa in '21, and Beryl's short term environment is much more impressive than what we saw back then. Despite this I remain skeptical of its long term prospects. A stronger storm gets lifted poleward into the Greater Antilles, a weaker storm gets caught up in strong easterly flow and its local vorticity max gets attenuated. So there is some potential for this to get shredded up. No one in the Caribbean or Gulf needs an anomalous fierce brobdingnagian hurricane. Especially not in early July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Good morning Beryl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 2 hours ago, Floydbuster said: Good morning Beryl. Beryl: Good morning, do I mog? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 5 hours ago, Boston Bulldog said: I would attribute the lack of banding structures to Beryl's young age AND the prominence of the Saharan Air Layer nearby. Hard to expand a moist convective envelope when the desert is a few kilometers away to the north. The MDR is dry, but favorable. There isn't much of a mechanism to push this SAL into the system...yet. If there was one thing that can stop this system from achieving the lofty heights the models currently show, it's the Saharan Dust in tandem with quickening easterlies. 96L may have less of it to deal with if Beryl takes a gulp of it... Beryl might unironically mog the SAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 2 hours ago, Floydbuster said: Good morning Beryl. 5 hours ago, Windspeed said: Shrimp mode... JFL AT BERYL WHAT THE HELL IS THIS ALREADY ...BERYL STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... 8:00 AM AST Sat Jun 29 Location: 9.8°N 46.8°W Moving: W at 21 mph Min pressure: 999 mb Max sustained: 60 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Based on the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 45 kt. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the western tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean Sea are abnormally favorable for strengthening, and the rapid intensification indices in the SHIPS model are showing a significant chance of rapid intensification. The new intensity forecast continues to call for bERyl to become a hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands, and it now calls for a peak intensity of 95 kt in 60-72 h. This peak could be conservative, as several of the intensity guidance models forecast Beryl to become a major hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 5 hours ago, tiger_deF said: Beryl is looking fierce right now. I’d say a 45-50 mph tropical storm still intensifying at a fast clip. What’s most intimidating is the total lack of other clouds around the system. Once the system fully stacks we are going to see some beautiful outflow. Jfl beryl is at a conservative (NHC own words) 60mph rn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 This storm looks like it will be one of those buzz saw looking hurricanes. What a specimen for this early in the season 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 This is what happens when you have a highly anomalous environment. For something this east, this early, it’s unprecedented. Just to hammer home the point. It’s June 29th. This is where we have a rapidly intensifying TC and another low to the east with 60% odds of development. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 @CurlyHeadBarrett it’s very impressive to see this level of activity this early in that part of the basin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Forecast is now for a major hurricane. Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 Satellite images indicate that Beryl has been strengthening at a quick pace. The storm is now more symmetric with the low-level center located beneath an expanding central dense overcast feature. Showers and thunderstorms are also organized in curved bands on the west side of the circulation. The initial intensity is increased to 55 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak estimate from TAFB, and Beryl is nearing hurricane strength. Beryl has been wobbling around, but the general motion has been westward at a fast 20 kt. A strong subtropical ridge should keep the storm moving generally westward at only a slightly slower forward speed for the next few days. This motion should take Beryl across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday, and then across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea early next week. By the middle of next week, the cyclone might gain a little more latitude as it feels some influence from a weakness in the ridge, before another ridge builds to its northwest. The NHC track forecast has been nudged southward based on the trends in the latest model runs. The storm has been on a steady strengthening trend since it formed yesterday, and now that its structure is more symmetric and compact, it likely will have an opportunity to rapidly intensify given the low wind shear conditions. The new NHC intensity forecast explicitly calls for rapid strengthening and shows Beryl becoming a major hurricane before moving across the Windward Islands. The environment becomes a little less conducive after Beryl moves into the Caribbean Sea, and some increase in shear will likely end its strengthening phase and cause slow weakening toward the end of the period. This forecast shows more aggressive strengthening in the short term and a slightly higher peak intensity than the previous one, and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to rapidly strengthen and be a major hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for much of the Windward Islands. 2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday. 3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 10.0N 47.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 10.4N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 11.1N 53.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 11.8N 57.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 12.6N 60.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 13.7N 64.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 14.9N 68.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 18.7N 81.4W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Forecast is now for a major hurricane. Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 Satellite images indicate that Beryl has been strengthening at a quick pace. The storm is now more symmetric with the low-level center located beneath an expanding central dense overcast feature. Showers and thunderstorms are also organized in curved bands on the west side of the circulation. The initial intensity is increased to 55 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak estimate from TAFB, and Beryl is nearing hurricane strength. Beryl has been wobbling around, but the general motion has been westward at a fast 20 kt. A strong subtropical ridge should keep the storm moving generally westward at only a slightly slower forward speed for the next few days. This motion should take Beryl across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday, and then across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea early next week. By the middle of next week, the cyclone might gain a little more latitude as it feels some influence from a weakness in the ridge, before another ridge builds to its northwest. The NHC track forecast has been nudged southward based on the trends in the latest model runs. The storm has been on a steady strengthening trend since it formed yesterday, and now that its structure is more symmetric and compact, it likely will have an opportunity to rapidly intensify given the low wind shear conditions. The new NHC intensity forecast explicitly calls for rapid strengthening and shows Beryl becoming a major hurricane before moving across the Windward Islands. The environment becomes a little less conducive after Beryl moves into the Caribbean Sea, and some increase in shear will likely end its strengthening phase and cause slow weakening toward the end of the period. This forecast shows more aggressive strengthening in the short term and a slightly higher peak intensity than the previous one, and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to rapidly strengthen and be a major hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for much of the Windward Islands. 2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday. 3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 10.0N 47.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 10.4N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 11.1N 53.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 11.8N 57.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 12.6N 60.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 13.7N 64.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 14.9N 68.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 18.7N 81.4W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Jfl at the major peak. It’s over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: @CurlyHeadBarrett it’s very impressive to see this level of activity this early in that part of the basin. Basin thinks it’s August 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Tropical Storm #Beryl has strengthened and now has max winds of 60 mph. Beryl is the strongest June tropical storm this far east (~47°W) in the tropical Atlantic (<23.5°N) on record. https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1807023251408683495 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 43 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Basin thinks it’s August 29 September 10 in Caribbean https://x.com/BMcNoldy/status/1807047443676340225 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 50 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Basin thinks it’s August 29 Basin is already going full MOG on us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 21 minutes ago, chubbs said: September 10 in Caribbean https://x.com/BMcNoldy/status/1807047443676340225 It’s over for Caribbeancels, TUTTcels and SALcels, getting mogged by storms in June 14 minutes ago, Jebman said: Basin is already going full MOG on us. Basin is set to produce prime moggers ngl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 29 Author Share Posted June 29 Tomer Burg on Twitter says not to discount the hi-res hurricane models, or N of the globals and ensembles, Especially since Beryl is a small system and apparently intensifying briskly. GEFS seem close to a best case scenario, Beryl runs into a wall of shear, which then results in a bend back W and into C. America as a weakening system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 3 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Tomer Burg on Twitter says not to discount the hi-res hurricane models, or N of the globals and ensembles, Especially since Beryl is a small system and apparently intensifying briskly. GEFS seem close to a best case scenario, Beryl runs into a wall of shear, which then results in a bend back W and into C. America as a weakening system. Although weakening systems into c America are somtimes the most disastrous in terms of impact from flooding 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Really do think there’s considerable uncertainty over what happens in the Caribbean. A lot will depend on the magnitude of the shear. These systems can get decapitated by high shear, particularly this time of year, but if shear is slightly weaker than modeled and Beryl does establish the kind of inner core necessary of a major hurricane, it could be more resilient in the face of the shear and possible drier air. I know I was bearish at the start regarding Caribbean prospects, but I do think this hangs on a little better than I originally anticipated. That has implications on downstream steering obviously as a stronger system tends to drift poleward. Judging by the NHC forecast, this is still a viable hurricane by the time it reaches the Yucatán, or if it drifts northward, the Gulf. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 HWRF is insanely bullish. Overdone I would hope? This would be ridiculous before the 4th of July. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Excellent spiral banding out west ahead of the storm. Excellent inflow on the southern side as well. Great outflow expanding westward. Only hindering issue is some easterly shear. Thinking remains the same, however Intensity I am increasing to 135 mph+ at first impact. Beryl will be gone after this year 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 29 Author Share Posted June 29 SHIPS/DSHIPS from secret 6-8 day NHC track implies a landfall and then back into the Gulf or BoC. 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 68 75 81 87 95 96 94 87 82 77 74 71 72 75 76 77 V (KT) LAND 60 68 75 81 87 95 96 94 87 82 77 74 71 72 58 37 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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