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Hurricane Beryl - Hurricane Warning - Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass Texas


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Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
100 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

...BERYL STRENGTHENING AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE MIDDLE TEXAS 
COAST...
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING WITH DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH 
FLOODING, AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 95.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located 
near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 95.9 West. Beryl is moving 
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the 
north is expected this morning. On the forecast track, the center 
of Beryl is expected to make landfall on the middle Texas coast 
during the next several hours. Beryl is forecast to turn 
northeastward and move farther inland over eastern Texas and 
Arkansas late Monday and Tuesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
and coastal Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained 
winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Additional strengthening is expected before the center reaches the 
Texas coast. Significant weakening is expected after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A WeatherFlow station at Matagorda, Texas, 
recently reported sustained winds of 48 mph (77 km/h) and a wind 
gust of 69 mph (111 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft is 984 mb (29.06 inches).
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11 minutes ago, Chinook said:

storm chasers say they may have hurricane-force winds close to Matagorda. (Buoy system reports 47mph gusting to 54mph at Matagorda Bay entrance channel)

closer to landfall 2.jpg

Those FL winds are nothing to sneeze at. Still getting deep convection wrapping around the core so the only limitation at this point is time. 

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Center now has 3 mesos rotating around it.  Intensifying VERY fast.  Frictional convergence might make things worse.  This will be as bad as the derecho last month for Houston (and likely worse).  Radar velocities steadily rising.  Gonna be rough for my home city.  Could have been worse though.

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Northern eyewall or eyewall feature is almost onshore, the window to strengthen has closed.

 

But winds near hurricane force are well to the E of the center.  Local TV in Houston suggesting winds 50 to 74 mph in Harris County, that doesn't twist and buckles the big steel truss transmission towers like the May tornado/derecho event did, but widespread wind gusts above severe TS levels to near hurricane force will cause some power outages.

recon_AF306-3102A-BERYL.png

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13 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

This looks like a much nastier strike for this area than Hurricane Nicholas was in 2021.

Here is a 2am video update for anyone interested.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCx6ibKtwzE

 

Very good summary. I have to wonder what else US will get this year. I originally wrote summer but I think the season will be active well into fall too. 

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Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
200 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...BERYL NEARING THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...
...200 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

Beryl is nearing the middle Texas coast and is expected to make 
landfall within the next few hours. Conditions are deteriorating 
with dangerous storm surge and flash flooding. Sustained 
tropical-storm-force winds and hurricane-force wind gust have 
already been reported along the coast.

A WeatherFlow station (XMBG) located at Matagorda Bay recently 
reported a sustained wind of 60 mph (96 km/h) and a gust of 75 mph 
(120 km/h).

Another position update will be provided at 300 AM CDT (0800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 200 AM CDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 95.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ENE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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The radar velocity data from Corpus Christi is very telling.  The core of this hurricane is gigantic.  There are portions of the southern eyewall well offshore with similar velocities as those near matagorda right now.  Gonna be a long long night and morning. 

CA0A09C6-3573-4A11-8623-6902DCD6DD49.png

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Landfall.


000
WTNT32 KNHC 080853
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

...CENTER OF BERYL MAKES LANDFALL NEAR MATAGORDA TEXAS...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS OCCURRING WITH FLASH
FLOODING EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 96.0W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF HOUSTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


Discussion....


000
WTNT42 KNHC 080907
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

The strengthening forecast by the regional hurricane models began
in earnest just after the last advisory was issued. Doppler radar
and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that
Beryl regained hurricane strength near 04Z, and intensification
continued until the just-occurred landfall of the 28 n mi wide eye
on the Texas coast. The landfall central pressure was near 979 mb,
and the maximum winds were near 70 kt.

The initial motion is 355/10. Beryl should move northward for the
next 12 h through a break in the subtropical ridge, with the
center moving through eastern Texas. After that, the cyclone
should turn northeastward with an increase in forward speed, with
the cyclone accelerating across the lower Mississippi Valley and
into the Ohio Valley until dissipation occurs between 72-96 h.
The new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast.

Now that Beryl is moving inland, it should quickly weaken, with the
system becoming a tropical storm in the next few hours and a
tropical depression in a little over 24 hours. After that, the
cyclone should merge with a frontal system over Mississippi Valley
and become an extratropical low before it dissipates.


Key Messages:

1. There is a continuing danger of life-threatening storm surge
inundation along the coast of Texas from Mesquite Bay to Sabine
Pass, including Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. Residents in those
areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Beryl is bringing damaging hurricane-force winds to portions of
the Texas coast this morning. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from
Mesquite Bay to Port Bolivar.

3. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected today into
tonight across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and
eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also
expected.

4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
Tuesday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 28.6N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...ON COAST
12H 08/1800Z 30.4N 95.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/0600Z 32.7N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/1800Z 35.0N 92.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/0600Z 37.5N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 10/1800Z 40.0N 85.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 11/0600Z 42.0N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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I am actually a little surprised the NHC kept the intensity at 80 mph. Beryl is producing some nasty winds. Of course, strengthening storms can force more winds down to the surface than steady state or weakening ones. 

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Dead center of a dirty eye. What a feeling. Duct taped the window so it should be fine for now. 

On a mini damage survey with staff there is an undisclosed number of windows blown in. The eyewall gusts were pushing dead center on the windows. Power out of course and some localized damage. Seems modest so far. 

We’ll see what daylight reveals.

VHblFF0.jpeg

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