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Hurricane Beryl - Hurricane Warning - Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass Texas


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The last VDM from recon had an eye that was 48nm (55mi) wide and was open in the NW. Since then Beryl’s inner core has tightened and is probably ~30-35mi now. It’s still not a solid eyewall, but it’s moving toward that absent a convective collapse.

I was skeptical of a major yesterday and deeply skeptical today. I do think the 12z hurricane guidance (still waiting on HWRF, which has been great so far) is underplaying things with how they initialized a clearly less organized core than we see currently. Dry air is still an issue. That’s a critical issue. 

Next few hours are important. Still leaning high end 1/low end 2.

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Beryl is clearly getting her act together now on sat/radar.  Thankfully for Texas there is probably only about 14-16 hours left over water for Beryl to intensify. Although this will keep wind impacts in check, keep in by Beryl will almost certainly be intensifying upon landfall, compared to when it was weakening at Mexico landfall.

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 Recon just placed the center around 26.2N, 95.4W but didn’t get a pressure reading. Thus, we’ll have to wait to see what the dropsonde shows.

——————-

Edit: From NHC:

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...
...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 95.3W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

The moistness of the core has clearly increased through the day, but the convection is still weak near the center.

It’s a ragged look on IR and radar. Nothing really impressive. Just a gradual increase in organization and drop in pressure. 

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1 hour ago, dan11295 said:

Beryl is clearly getting her act together now on sat/radar.  Thankfully for Texas there is probably only about 14-16 hours left over water for Beryl to intensify. Although this will keep wind impacts in check, keep in by Beryl will almost certainly be intensifying upon landfall, compared to when it was weakening at Mexico landfall.

It doesn't look great to me.

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21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This has about 12 hours left. I am just about ready to remove the possibility of cat 2 from the table. I feel like it needed to be in a better position by now.

Agreed. Despite pretty much all systems being go for intensification up until landfall it’s still to broad. Some systems just can’t get it back together after land interaction. Almost looks like it has subtropical characteristics to it.

Still a dangerous storm for the TX coast and should intensify right up until landfall but I don’t think Beryl will be pulling a Harvey on us. 

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14 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Agreed. Despite pretty much all systems being go for intensification up until landfall it’s still to broad. Some systems just can’t get it back together after land interaction. Almost looks like it has subtropical characteristics to it.

Still a dangerous storm for the TX coast and should intensify right up until landfall but I don’t think Beryl will be pulling a Harvey on us. 

 

I think the dry air from the ULL has done as much or more damage than the land interaction. 

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30 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

 

I think the dry air from the ULL has done as much or more damage than the land interaction. 

Can’t argue with you there. Beryl kind of got the 1-2-3 whammy. Land interaction -> cool SSTs of the northern Yucatán -> dry air intrusion that was very apparent on WV loops. 

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Sone family live 3 miles inland about 20 miles SW of Galveston. They’re all ready. Don’t expect winds to be much of an issue or anything compared to the dericho they had a few weeks ago but have sandbags for any flood issue. 

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1 hour ago, KoalaBeer said:

Agreed. Despite pretty much all systems being go for intensification up until landfall it’s still to broad. Some systems just can’t get it back together after land interaction. Almost looks like it has subtropical characteristics to it.

Still a dangerous storm for the TX coast and should intensify right up until landfall but I don’t think Beryl will be pulling a Harvey on us. 

All systems need to be go with respect to not only the environment, but the structure....the importance of the latter is what many folks have underestimated. Post ERC systems often get like this with a broad core that never seems to recapture that tightly coiled vigor....the state that I refer to as "skunked". Beryl is in this state. Hopefully my 95 MPH landfall call isn't too aggressive. 

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Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

...BERYL FORECAST TO BRING DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING
AND STRONG WINDS TO TEXAS OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 95.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
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Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Satellite images indicate that Beryl continues to gradual organize
with more banding features near the center, expanding outflow and 
strong bursts of convection rotating around the eyewall.  However, 
dry air is still present within the inner core, keeping the 
intensification slow at this time, with only a broken banded
eyewall structure.  While the central pressure reported by an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has fallen to 988 mb, there
hasn't been much change in the winds reported, so the intensity
remains 55 kt.

The intensity forecast is tricky because the environment is
becoming quite favorable for significant intensification as Beryl
should be moving over sea-surface temperatures near 87F tonight and
light shear, plus even an enhancement of jet dynamics north of the
storm.  All of the model guidance respond to these conditions by
showing a large increase in deep convection near the center and 
higher winds.  However, some less predictable factors could prevent 
a big increase in winds, including dry air in the inner core, a 
somewhat large radius of maximum winds, and slightly faster landfall 
timing.   Given that the regional hurricane models still show 
significant deepening, the official forecast continues to call for 
near rapid intensification through landfall.

Beryl has turned north-northwest at about 10 kt.  The storm should 
turn northward overnight before making landfall along the middle 
Texas coast early on Monday before dawn.  The new forecast is very 
close to the previous one through landfall.  After Beryl moves 
inland, the latest guidance turns the system northeastward late 
tomorrow and it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. The long-term 
track is a bit faster and east of the last one, consistent with a 
blend of the ECMWF and GFS models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 26.8N  95.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 28.3N  95.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 30.4N  95.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/0600Z 32.6N  94.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  09/1800Z 34.9N  92.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  10/0600Z 37.2N  89.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  10/1800Z 39.7N  86.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  11/1800Z 43.5N  80.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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@40/70 Benchmark I think you hit your 95 mph call.  there are signs that Beryl is starting to deepen.  Velocity on radar is increasing, big blow up / meso on the south side is rotating around, and potential new hot towers on the north side are firing.  I do think its too late for a major but 95 mph might still be possible.

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All systems need to be go with respect to not only the environment, but the structure....the importance of the latter is what many folks have underestimated. Post ERC systems often get like this with a broad core that never seems to recapture that tightly coiled vigor....the state that I refer to as "skunked". Beryl is in this state. Hopefully my 95 MPH landfall call isn't too aggressive. 

Ya absolutely. Seen it time and time again. With enough time some systems can recapture it but that’s simply not the case here. Those broad cores can take quite a long time to reconsolidate into something that can RI. I like comparing it to some big severe weather days when people are drooling over those high STP maps. Sure there is a pristine environment for a violent TOR but the question is there a storm that is able to take advantage of it? 

I think your call is good even if it comes in a little weaker, it’s pretty hard to hit the nail on the head with a system like this. 

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Recon just picked up its first hurricane force wind at flight level (66 knots). Satellite also showing big convection popping up around the eye...

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First evidence IMO from recon that winds are responding to the gradual organization. @cptcatz beat me to it.

Also had an unflagged 59 & 60kt SFMR. Came in heavier rain though so could be contaminated. Down to 986mb on the latest pass. 
 

Cropped YouTube video of the most recent band. 

 

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80*F dewpoints at 5 pm isn't usual.  That is a 7 am dewpoint.  We almost always mix below 75*F.

 

GFS gets Houston very close, Euro gets us right to 3 inch PW.  That is impressive.  Glad to see a NOAA flight that hasn't turned around before making a center pass.  The reliability of the planes over 50 years old is getting suspect.

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Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 22:01Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301
Storm Name: Beryl
Storm Number: 02 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 29
Observation Number: 22 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 22Z on the 7th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 26.5N 95.3W
Location: 141 statute miles (227 km) to the ENE (74°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
Marsden Square: 082 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb -66m (-217 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
993mb (29.33 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.6°C(78.1°F) 24.5°C (76°F) 190° (from the S) 64 knots (74 mph)
925mb 622m (2,041 ft) 23.6°C(74.5°F) 21.7°C (71°F) 195° (from the SSW) 63 knots (72 mph)
850mb 1,359m(4,459 ft) 19.4°C(66.9°F) 19.0°C (66°F) 190° (from the S) 63 knots (72 mph)
700mb 3,024m(9,921 ft) Other data not available.

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 21:43Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in maximum wind band.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 26.50N 95.26W
- Time: 21:43:49Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 26.55N 95.23W
- Time: 21:47:36Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 190° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 67 knots (77 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 200° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 59 knots (68 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 711mb to 992mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 157 gpm - 7 gpm (515 geo. feet - 23 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 190° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 69 knots (79 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 30407
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
993mb (Surface) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 24.5°C (76°F)
850mb 19.4°C (66.9°F) 19.0°C (66°F)
762mb 17.0°C (62.6°F) 17.0°C (63°F)
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
993mb (Surface) 190° (from the S) 64 knots (74 mph)
981mb 190° (from the S) 70 knots (81 mph)
881mb 190° (from the S) 60 knots (69 mph)
850mb 190° (from the S) 63 knots (72 mph)
770mb 220° (from the SW) 56 knots (64 mph)
Dropsonde Diagram
0102030401000925850700Temperature (°C)Pressure Level (mb)Dew PointAirWind (kts)Beryl ()Mission 29 - AF301Time: 21:43Z on 7th day of monthObservation Number: 22Location: 26.50N 95.26W
Lines
Points
Diagram Type: Skew-TStüve
Line Thickness: 
Point Width: 
Font Setting: 
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