Hurricane Beryl - Hurricane Warning - Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass Texas

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Despite all the effort at organizing, Beryl is still just middling along. No real evidence of intensification or a well organized core. Dry air has held it in check, but now shear has decreased significantly so we’ll see if the dry air can get mixed out over the next 12 hours.

I don't and have never expected significant intensification until midday Sunday into the afternoon. No sweat.

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't and have never expected significant intensification until midday Sunday into the afternoon. No sweat.

Yeah. If a legitimate inner core can get going by the time the trough swoops in to provide the diffluent upper level assist, this should take off. HAFS A & B have the dry air mixed out in the next few hours. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just gonna post my whole Final stab at this since there isn't much traffic at this hour....make sit easy for you guys to scan my dribble. Hopefully some compelling material.

 

Final Call for Hurricane Beryl's Monday AM Strike on Texas Coast

Confidence in Track & Even Intensity Increased

Current Status:

Currently as of 2:00 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Beryl is centered approximately 275 miles SE of Corpus Christ, Texas and has slowed slightly while veering more towards the NW at 13 MPH.

 

 

 

 Beryl remains rather disorganized with maximum sustained winds of 60 MPH and a minimum central pressure of 995 MB. However, it is important to note that this pressure is down from a peak of 1001 MB when the system exited the northern coast of the Yucatan early this morning, which means that some slow organization has been occurring during Saturday as anticipated. 

Track Forecast Rationale:

 The general forecast philosophy from First Call issued on Friday night is relatively unchanged, as the Eastern Mass Weather expectation that guidance was significantly too far to the southwest and would adjust significantly to the northeast with a faster recurve has proven correct. There is now a much stronger consensus on the future track of Beryl.

 

 

In fact, there has been such an aggressive move in the consensus that the Final Eastern Mass Weather forecast track will even need to be adjusted slightly further up the Texas Coast from a First Call in the vicinity of a south Padre Island, TX landfall. These are relatively minor cosmetic changes have to do with the degree of trough interaction in the grand scheme of things, but are of course crucial for those living along the Texas coast. In addition to a slightly faster recurve and turn to the north and eventually northeast, one potential ramification of Beryl's interaction with trough actually has more to do with its ultimate intensity at the time of landfall.

 

 

 

Intensity Forecast Rationale:

Despite a round of intensification late Thursday and Thursday evening, the Eastern Mass Weather expectation that Beryl would begin a more concerted round of weakening due to an increase in wind shear prior to landfall near Cozumel early Friday proved correct.

 

 

And while the official landfall intensity reflected 110 MPH max sustained winds (975 MB minimum central pressure), the early returns from reports around the area is that they were likely even less. Beryl has since weakened to a tropical storm with 60 MPH sustained winds as anticipated and has only slowly reorganized during the day on Saturday, which was also part of the forecast due to a badly disrupted core. 

This is due to both a combination of decreasing southern shear around the western periphery of the departing ridge to the system's west.

 

 

And a drier air that continues being entrained into the redeveloping core of Beryl.

 

 

However, as the system moves to the northwest and the ridge in the opposite direction, further away to the east, shear will continue to decrease. This will give way to light diffluent flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere in advance of the approaching trough that will begin to augment poleward outflow

 

 

Simultaneously, drier air will begin being worked out away from the rapidly evolving core as Sunday morning progresses.

 

 

It is at this point that Beryl will also begin traversing even warmer sea surface temperatures by midday Sunday en route to the Texas coast.

 

 

Although the speed of movement is in the process of slowing somewhat, it should be enough to promote a great deal of upwelling, especially considering that Beryl will not be a particularly intense cyclone. Regardless, TCHP is certainly supportive of at least a minimal hurricane on approach to the coast.

 

 

Given what will evolve into a nearly ideal environment for intensification during the final 12-18 hours prior to landfall, Beryl should be a healthy and rapidly intensifying hurricane when it makes landfall around 6 AM on Monday morning.

 

 

The only saving grace for Texas in terms of a potential major hurricane strike will be time.

 

Final Call:

While the official forecast landfall intensity is 95 MPH and reflective of a category one hurricane, it would not be at all suprising for damage to be consistent with a category two hurricane given that the system will be intensifying and perhaps rapidly so at landfall. This is because intensifying systems often more proficientlly mix higher winds gusts down to the surface.

 

 

 

 

First Call: 

Issued Thursday 7/4 @ 11 PM:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Slight changes from Thursday night....I  adjusted locale slightly NE from S Padre Island to Matagorda and held intensity at 95 MPH.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

If I read it correctly, the next recon won't even be sending data back until sometime around 11:30am CDT.  I think the 50 year old NOAA plane had a failure, it didn't spend long in Beryl.  Even so, 12 hours between center fixes on a storm a day from US landfall is actually kind of sad.  NHC can't help the NOAA P-3s from the Viet Nam era can't fly anymore, but they maybe could have at least scheduled staggered flights between the less than 20 year old USAF planes and the decrepit NOAA planes.

 

The good news is, Beryl at worst makes it to Cat 2, and Texas can handle that, more or less.  In a 20+ NS season, a storm a little over a day away from US landfall in ASO might be stronger than that.

[Roger Smith]

09z message is setting stage for possible eastward jog and landfall towards Galveston. It would keep Beryl over very warm waters a bit longer, landfall would probably be delayed to 21z monday and just about time to deepen to low cat-3. You can see concern for s.e. Texas growing. 

[WxWatcher007]

Beryl is once again attempting to organize with a convective burst right near the center. While dry air still lurks, we can see on VW shallow convection upshear perhaps trying to cut off dry air inflow and on radar the convection trying to wrap around the center. Recon is on its way to investigate. 

So far I feel ok about hedging east here in Bay City but with this heading any wobble left or right could make a huge difference for landfall point. 

Time sensitive WV loop

 

[WxWatcher007]

First extrapolated pressure of 988.3mb 

Still need a dropsonde to have the official pressure. 
 

Edit: adding the latest microwave image 

[olafminesaw]

39 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

First extrapolated pressure of 988.3mb 

Still need a dropsonde to have the official pressure. 
 

Edit: adding the latest microwave image 

Big eye. Might take longer to tighten up/ deepen.

[Kevin Reilly]

42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

First extrapolated pressure of 988.3mb 

Still need a dropsonde to have the official pressure. 
 

Edit: adding the latest microwave image 

Looks like a pretty broad circulation and open on the north and northeast side.  In order for significant intensification, it would really need to tighten up which can happen which would be the big item to watch over the next 5-8 hours here.  I think the top level here in regard to hurricane intensity at landfall is likely 90-100 mph low end is 75-85 but still would be pretty impactful especially since the circulation has kind of broaden outward a bit. 

[GaWx]

 Unfortunately but not surprisingly, DMAX appears to have been a factor leading to strengthening with increased convection collocated with the center. Recon confirms an SLP drop to ~990 mb, a rather significant drop overnight. 

 We’ll see whether or not this increased convection holds as we go toward DMIN late today. With dry air/shear decreasing further and SSTs increasing, I expect it will. 

 With ~18 more hours over water projected til the ~3AM landfall, SSTs increasing to a whopping ~88 F, and another DMAX then being approached, a strengthening cat 2 at landfall is quite possible with an outside chance for just reaching cat 3.

[wxmx]

I'll leave this out here and back away slowly... 

[Windspeed]

 Unfortunately but not surprisingly, DMAX appears to have been a factor leading to strengthening with increased convection collocated with the center. Recon confirms an SLP drop to ~990 mb, a rather significant drop overnight. 

 We’ll see whether or not this increased convection holds as we go toward DMIN late today. With dry air/shear decreasing further and SSTs increasing, I expect it will. 

 With ~18 more hours over water projected til the ~3AM landfall, SSTs increasing to a whopping ~88 F, and another DMAX then being approached, a strengthening cat 2 at landfall is quite possible with an outside chance for just reaching cat 3.

Beryl's broad RMW and the lingering effects of stable airmass thanks to interaction with the ULL are all very critical and fortunate caveats to the evolving pristine upper environment and thermal support. Very little doubt in my mind that Beryl would have been a category 3 or 4 given a much earlier headstart of recovery off the Yucatán. Still, 18 hours is enough time for Beryl to rein in the vortex if it can build an eyewall by this afternoon and mix out what's left of the stable airmass. A category 2 landfall is still very reasonable.

[hawkeye_wx]

8 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Beryl's broad RMW and the lingering effects of stable airmass thanks to interaction with the ULL are all very critical and fortunate caveats to the evolving pristine upper environment and thermal support. Very little doubt in my mind that Beryl would have been a category 3 or 4 given a much earlier headstart of recovery off the Yucatán. Still, 18 hours is enough time for Beryl to rein in the vortex if it can build an eyewall by this afternoon and mix out what's left of the stable airmass. A category 2 landfall is still very reasonable.

 

This is one of those, "If it could have acquired its current level of organization yesterday morning...", situations.  Fortunately, for the Texas coast, Beryl will run out of time before it can do anything crazy.

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This is one of those, "If it could have acquired its current level of organization yesterday morning...", situations.  Fortunately, for the Texas coast, Beryl will run out of time before it can do anything crazy.

Geography dictates that almost any system coming  into the Gulf is going to have question marks, such as whether a core can rebuild after being shredded by land, limited time over warm water to strengthen before landfall, shear and dry air from troughs coming off the mainland. There's a reason major hurricane landfalls in the Gulf are relatively rare despite the consistently favorable SSTs 

[WxWatcher007]

Agree with all of that. It’d be a feat if Beryl were able to get to a low end 3. 

Still pretty high probabilities for modest RI near the coast.

 

Hurricane models have been pretty good with identifying the timeline for dry air mixing out, and we’re starting to see that on IR and importantly radar. 

 

Obviously it needs to 1) close off and then 2) tighten the RMW to build a more robust inner core that’s capable of capitalizing on the increasingly favorable environmental conditions. 

I’m not talking track anymore to prevent jinxing  

[GaWx]

 The 6Z HWRF has 969 mb landfall ~3AM CDT at Matagorda Bay. Due to the broad center, the highest winds (~100 mph from SE) are located a pretty significant distance (~25 miles) NE of the center between the towns of Matagorda and Sargent. Highest winds to the left of the center are ~75 mph from the NW.

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 6Z HWRF has 969 mb landfall ~3AM at Matagorda Bay. Due to the broad center, the highest winds (~100 mph from SE) are located a pretty significant distance (~25 miles) NE of the center between the towns of Matagorda and Sargent. Highest winds to the left of the center are ~75 mph from the NW.

I think this has the right idea.

[Normandy]

Morning trends are not the friend of houston.  It would appear the turn north has already started and there won’t be much more westward progress.  Looks very likely to come ashore east of Matagorda bay, somewhere west of Galveston bay.  This puts all of metro Houston in the Eastern eyewall.  
 

regarding intensity.  It’s got 24 hours till landfall, incredible conditions for rapid intensification (especially aloft).  It’s currently sitting at 988 or so.  Given the time over water and favorable conditions, a landfall in the 960s is not out of the questions.  Given the broad core, not sure the winds that translates too (maybe 100-115 mph).  Will begin updating family and friends and checking in them in Houston.

[smokeybandit]

 

 

[GaWx]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

...BERYL BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND FORECAST TO BECOME A 
HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...
...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 95.1W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has issued for the coast of Texas from High 
Island to Sabine Pass.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from the mouth of the 
Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, Texas.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Texas coast east of High Island to 
Sabine Pass has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Hurricane Watch for the Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to 
the mouth of the Rio Grande has been discontinued.

[GaWx]

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Beryl has become better organized this morning.  Satellite images
show deep convection becoming more symmetric around the center, and
Brownsville radar has been showing an eyewall forming, although 
still open on the northwest side.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft recently reported maximum flight-level winds of 62 
kt with the central pressure falling to 992 mb, so the initial wind 
speed is raised to 55 kt.

Further intensification is likely as Beryl moves over very warm
waters within light shear conditions.  Rapid intensification is a
distinct possibility if the core can become isolated from the dry 
air that has been inhibiting intensification during the last day or 
so. While there are no changes to the intensity forecast based on 
the latest guidance, we are expecting Beryl to be intensifying up 
until landfall early Monday, and people should be preparing for the
possibility of a category 2 hurricane landfall.

Beryl continues to move northwestward at 9 kt.  The storm 
should turn north-northwest this afternoon and make landfall 
along the middle Texas coast early on Monday.  The new forecast 
is very close to the previous one, just a shade to the east. After 
Beryl moves inland, the latest guidance still shows the system 
accelerating farther northeastward and become a post-tropical 
cyclone.  This should bring the threat of flash flooding well into 
Missouri.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 25.9N  95.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 27.1N  95.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 29.2N  96.2W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/0000Z 31.4N  95.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  09/1200Z 33.6N  94.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  10/0000Z 36.2N  91.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  10/1200Z 38.6N  89.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  11/1200Z 42.8N  83.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  12/1200Z 46.0N  79.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake

*Edit: note the forecasted 85 mph as of 7AM CDT is when it has already been inland a few hours thus implying higher forecasted landfalling max winds.

[WxWatcher007]

Despite dry air still causing issues in the northern and eastern segments of the storm, the trend toward a walled off core continues on radar. Also seeing better spiral banding. 

 

[USCG RS]

29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Despite dry air still causing issues in the northern and eastern segments of the storm, the trend toward a walled off core continues on radar. Also seeing better spiral banding. 

 

Unfortunately I still this as rapidly exploding prior to landfall. 

The core is resilient. 

The water is incredibly warm. 

The shear and dry air are completely abating. 

[salbers]

1-minute visible imagery showing convection firing close to the circulation center:

https://col.st/WYbsy

[GaWx]

Levi Cowan’s latest (7 min video), which was recorded within the last hour:

https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1809982172788306162?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Unfortunately I still this as rapidly exploding prior to landfall. 

The core is resilient. 

The water is incredibly warm. 

The shear and dry air are completely abating. 

Define "exploding"..... don't see this thing becoming a major, the core remains fairly broad and disorganized....has that post EWRC "skunked" appeal to me....doubt landfall greater than cat 1.

[USCG RS]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Define "exploding"..... don't see this thing becoming a major, the core remains fairly broad and disorganized....has that post EWRC "skunked" appeal to me....doubt landfall greater than cat 1.

I see this being a major at landfall. The circulation is immediately responding to a better environment. You have a slight disconnect in the varying levels with height, but it's already beginning to tighten up. Beryl is hitting very very warm waters, including shelf waters and friction will start playing a role as well, leading to further tightening imo.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

I see this being a major at landfall. The circulation is immediately responding to a better environment. You have a slight disconnect in the varying levels with height, but it's already beginning to tighten up. Beryl is hitting very very warm waters, including shelf waters and friction will start playing a role as well, leading to further tightening imo.

I don't agree with your analysis at all. Window for 3, albeit always only ajar a hair, is now just about closed and the window for cat 2 is closing.

But we shall see-

[40/70 Benchmark]

The issue is that the continued dry air entrainment, although decreasing, is still definitely present at this hour...now into the early PM. That dry air needs to be entirely washed out of the core so that convection in association with the CDO can intensify and expand......this is just when we will begin to see a more concerted pressure drop. And THEN, the circulation will need to tighten for the aforementioned processes to translate to significantly increased max sustained winds and its going to take the better part of the 15 hours or so that it has remaining to accomplish this. The system cannot fully avail itself of even the most pristine atmospheric conditions until this is accomplished in its entirety. This is why I like the current NHC forecast, which is in line with my call for a 95 MPH landfall intensity as a cat 1 hurricane.