Hurricane Beryl - Hurricane Warning - Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass Texas

[Roger Smith]

Looking at various buoy reports and water temps are above 88F even 50-60 miles off coast, and above 92F in shallow waters near coast (Baffin Bay reports 93+). I notice storm surge watch extends to Sabine Pass. If Beryl does continue to track east of guidance it will take longer to reach coastal waters and will have a few extra hours to intensify, thus concern for possible cat-3 outcome if so. I agree it would likely be capped at cat-2 if it does hit west of Galveston as most seem to expect. 

[Jebman]

Quick update. Don't look now but rain is developing over both Houston and the Austin regions.

[Windspeed]

Good discussion by Beven. When recon arrives, it will be interesting to see if the surface circulation is getting tugged any underneath the new MLC and if the intense CBs on the western periphery continue to be due to the onset of an eyewall.

I will say that these convective bursts are not waning this evening. If anything, it's growing in coverage. But structure is an unknown until recon gets there with Beryl not being in range of radar.

[Witness Protection Program]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Just by the science, what Beryl did 4 or 5 days ago in the Caribbean in no way influences what it does now.  Beryl is not a sentient thing that learned the value of hard work in the Caribbean and will therefore defy the models and become a major hurricane.  That isn't how physics work.

Counterpoint:

I saw Bear Suit at Buc-eee's just now, he said Cantore and he will end up at the Galveston seawall again.

#SheBlindedMeWithScience

[KoalaBeer]

1 hour ago, wkd said:

Something has changed in the last 5-10 years regarding modeled changes in the increase in hurricane intensity although they are still good at forecasting track. This seems especially true once storms are in the gulf. I am a total novice in respect to tropical systems and the physics involved  but I think forecasters need to increasingly use intuition/experience and not just models.

As an aside, kudos to 40/70 (Ray) for saying yesterday or the day before that he felt the models were too far south at land fall. Looks at this point he was correct.

I feel like people are saying stuff like this all the time without any data to back it up….

I think it’s easy for humans to remember the storms that over performed on intensity, and not so much the forecasts that were accurate or the storms that underperformed. 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify8.shtml

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/06/which-hurricane-models-should-you-trust-in-2023/

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, wkd said:

Something has changed in the last 5-10 years regarding modeled changes in the increase in hurricane intensity although they are still good at forecasting track. This seems especially true once storms are in the gulf. I am a total novice in respect to tropical systems and the physics involved  but I think forecasters need to increasingly use intuition/experience and not just models.

As an aside, kudos to 40/70 (Ray) for saying yesterday or the day before that he felt the models were too far south at land fall. Looks at this point he was correct.

And I wasn't far enough north, either....my Final update will also need adjustments, as will most.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

Good discussion by Beven. When recon arrives, it will be interesting to see if the surface circulation is getting tugged any underneath the new MLC and if the intense CBs on the western periphery continue to be due to the onset of an eyewall.

I will say that these convective bursts are not waning this evening. If anything, it's growing in coverage. But structure is an unknown until recon gets there with Beryl not being in range of radar.

What is most notable is that these precede diurnal max....

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Jebman said:

Quick update. Don't look now but rain is developing over both Houston and the Austin regions.

Keep us posted...FEMA is on standby in case you need to don an umbrella.  

[purduewx80]

The RI near landfall depicted in the 18z hi-res hurricane models is concerning and is hopefully not the start of a trend. They don’t necessarily show better organization until tomorrow sometime, so I’m real curious to see what recon finds this evening.  

[GaWx]

Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
700 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

...BERYL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AGAIN BEFORE
LANDFALL...
...STORM SURGE WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 93.7W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning
from San Luis Pass to High Island, including Galveston Bay.

[gymengineer]

This came in too late to make it into the 8 pm advisory, but confirmation tonight of pressure dropping: 

[WxWatcher007]

The first VDM of the night reveals that Beryl now has more than half of an eye, 16nm and circular, and open to the NW. I wouldn’t have expected that quadrant to be open. Also a fairly decent pressure drop. Down to 996mb.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The first VDM of the night reveals that Beryl now has more than half of an eye, 16nm and circular, and open to the NW. I wouldn’t have expected that quadrant to be open. Also a fairly decent pressure drop. Down to 996mb.

Ironic that the NW eye wall is open when that was the first quadrant to redevelop a wall in the first place...

[WxWatcher007]

Arrived in Bay City not too long ago. Unrelated, but flew through one hell of a storm coming into Houston. Hedging east for now and will reevaluate tomorrow. 

 

 

It looks like the alignment, while still tilted, is gradually getting better. Wind field is looking more organized as well. Still, a gradual process. 

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

NOAA plane has an extrap 992 mb pressure.  Just looking at 12Z and 18Z models, Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay seems the target.  A hint of a SW shift in the models after the models were generally chasing N shifts for a week.

 

I assume warming clouds tops are associated with DMIN, I wouldn't expect much increase in strength or organization until deeper storms fire up again.

 

[GaWx]

 Getting closer to being stacked now from what  I just read. I assume convection has as Ed suggests diminished partly due to the recent DMIN (late daytime). Let’s see whether or not it refires closer to DMAX (late night).

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Getting closer to being stacked now from what  I just read. I assume convection has as Ed suggests diminished partly due to the recent DMIN (late daytime). Let’s see whether or not it refires closer to DMAX (late night).

It still has a lot of work to do, but like someone earlier said there’s a foundation. I want to see if the core has gotten any tighter/organized in the next VDMs.

Here are the 00z models

 

Interesting that SHIPS has such high odds for RI but doesn’t get it to hurricane status verbatim.

[wxmx]

The step left that many models have shown (probably regarding core organization) appears to be happening now, according to the latest recon fix. Models also show the more NW motion resuming in a few hours. 

Also, shear is abating according to the latesr shear analysis and is probably the most favorable it has been since the Lesser Antilles

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It still has a lot of work to do, but like someone earlier said there’s a foundation. I want to see if the core has gotten any tighter/organized in the next VDMs.

Here are the 00z models

 

Interesting that SHIPS has such high odds for RI but doesn’t get it to hurricane status verbatim.

I interpret that as the guidance having concerns with respect to the storm structure...as in can it tighten that new core up, then its off to the races.

[canderson]

Mandatory evacuations issued for all tourists in and around Corpus Christi .

 

I forgot the infamous blue shed is in Rockport.  Someone should station themselves there. 

[GaWx]

The Gulf SST map below suggests a rise of SSTs from ~85F where it is now to an area of 86-88F to be crossed before landfall:

[Amped]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

The Gulf SST map below suggests a rise of SSTs from ~85F where it is now to an area of 86-88F to be crossed before landfall:

There's also frictional convergence near the coast helping to funnel moister and angular momentum inward.  Another enhancing factor is it will be moving into the right entrance region of a jet streak developing in the MS Valley. These things should combine for a quick burst of intensification prior to landfall.

[USCG RS]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I interpret that as the guidance having concerns with respect to the storm structure...as in can it tighten that new core up, then its off to the races.

Exactly what I have been expecting/concerned about the past few days unfortunately. This core is incredibly resilient. 

[GaWx]

Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

...BERYL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AGAIN BEFORE
LANDFALL...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 94.0W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

[GaWx]

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Beryl has not changed much over the past few hours.  Satellite
images still show that the storm has a compact central dense
overcast pattern, and radar and dropsonde data from the NOAA
aircraft indicate that the circulation remains tilted to the
northwest with height.  Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft have reported a slight drop in minimum pressure to 993 mb,
but the flight-level wind data suggest that the initial intensity is
still around 50 kt.

The storm is moving northwestward at 11 kt on the western periphery
of a mid-level ridge.  A turn to the north-northwest with a slight
decrease in forward speed is expected as the system moves toward a
trough over the south-central U.S., taking the core of Beryl to the
middle Texas coast early Monday morning.  The shifts in the models
have been decreasing, and the new NHC track forecast is just a touch
to the right of the previous one through landfall.  After landfall,
a faster motion to the north and northeast is predicted.

Beryl is currently in an environment of about 10 to 15 kt of
southerly vertical wind shear and surrounded by dry air, especially
on the south side of the circulation. However, the storm is expected
to move into an area of decreasing wind shear, and the global models
show the moisture increasing near the core.  In fact, the SHIPS
model shows the shear decreasing to very low levels (less than 5 kt)
just prior to Beryl reaching the coast.  These conditions combined
with a diffluent upper-level wind pattern should support notable
strengthening just prior to landfall.  In fact, the hurricane
regional models HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, and HMON all show only gradual
strengthening during the next 12-24 hours, followed by significant
intensification just hours before Beryl makes landfall.  Based on
the guidance and large-scale factors, there is a chance of rapid
intensification if Beryl becomes better vertically aligned, and it
is possible that it strengthens more between the 24- and 36-h
predictions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 24.7N  94.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 25.7N  95.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 27.1N  96.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 28.8N  96.6W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 48H  09/0000Z 30.7N  96.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 60H  09/1200Z 32.6N  95.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  10/0000Z 34.5N  93.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  11/0000Z 37.8N  89.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  12/0000Z 41.3N  84.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Floydbuster]

 

[Amped]

The gfs moved way east. Not a direct hit on Houston but they'll get a much more impact than the 18z run.

[Amped]

The predictable apology run from the GFS for insisting the troff was going leave Beryl behind for the last 3 days.

[USCG RS]

44 minutes ago, Amped said:

The gfs moved way east. Not a direct hit on Houston but they'll get a much more impact than the 18z run.

Given the synoptics, this makes the most sense to me to be honest. I have been - and still do- expect a major hit on Houston. 

[WxWatcher007]

Despite all the effort at organizing, Beryl is still just middling along. No real evidence of intensification or a well organized core. Dry air has held it in check, but now shear has decreased significantly so we’ll see if the dry air can get mixed out over the next 12 hours.