Kevin Reilly Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 9 minutes ago, AccuChris said: Appears Beryl is attempting to re-create a new CDO and pull the low level center in. If this all re-aligns, could be off to the races later It is possible high pressure is building now right over top. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 12Z SHIPS guidance shows that dry air will be the main inhibitor to intensification, though it does indicate a rapid increase in 700-500mb RH just prior to landfall. It's notable that the probs for RI have been increasing, as well. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Recon reports severe turbulence north of the center in the most recent VDM. Really have to see if this convective burst is enough to align the center and expel dry air. It looks robust enough to do it with sufficient time. You can easily see the dry air influence to the S and SW with arc cloud bursts. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Plenty of time for this storm. It’s easy to forget it went from PTC to Hurricane in 24 hrs. It’s working with absolute jet fuel ocean water and it looks like it’s becoming stacked again and resisting the surge of dry air. Odds are a cat 1/2 but we’ve seen the RI in the gulf episodes too often to think it doesn’t have a shot at something higher. Hope folks in East Texas are paying attention. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 I got a flight to Houston landing Tuesday night. Appears to be a non starter. Thinking of switching to Austin - which may be west enough to be less impacted by the storm. Otherwise Dallas may be the best bet. Ultimate destination is college station. I absolutely need to be in college station on Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 While the pressure is relatively steady, recon now reports that there is a nascent eyewall trying to develop on the NW side. 40% per recon. Center is still elongated SE/NW. That’s interesting. Would need to hold onto the eyewall though as dry air/shear could easily reverse this process. Exact remarks below: 40 PERCENT EYEWALL NW ELONGATED CENTER AXIS SE/NW 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: While the pressure is relatively steady, recon now reports that there is a nascent eyewall trying to develop on the NW side. 40% per recon. Center is still elongated SE/NW. That’s interesting. Would need to hold onto the eyewall though as dry air/shear could easily reverse this process. Exact remarks below: 40 PERCENT EYEWALL NW ELONGATED CENTER AXIS SE/NW Which makes sense with the upper air low to the southwest of the center. I think last night and into this morning you could clearly see the SSE shear which would cause this elongation for now. How rapidly that upper air low gets out of the way or weakens and also the dry air evacuation will tell the story of how strong Beryl can get. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 This storm has at least set a foundation it can build from 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 In less than six hours, Beryl went from devoid of any mid-level vortex to a partial eyewall. That's absurd. I had just analyzed the storm this morning and accepted, based on in situ recon and the stable airmass parked over the low-level circulation, that it was going to take at least another 24 to regenerate its core.Good grief... Tropical meteorology is the toughest for reason. Too much chaos. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 This is an excellent visual of the dry air it’s fighting currently. I actually think the southern portion looks ok, but it’s all fragile until everything is fully mixed out. I think the inflow on the eastern side could easily collapse things. Shear has been gradually pulling away but still lurking as well. Hard to see on the image above but SSTs only increase as it gets closer to the coast. That should make it increasingly easy for deep convection to fire. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 5 minutes ago, Windspeed said: In less than six hours, Beryl went from devoid of any mid-level vortex to a partial eyewall. That's absurd. I had just analyzed the storm this morning and accepted, based on in situ recon and the stable airmass parked over the low-level circulation, that it was going to take at least another 24 to regenerate its core. Good grief... Tropical meteorology is the toughest for reason. Too much chaos. Beryl said “you guys think I’m done yet?? Hold my F’N beer!” 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 11 minutes ago, Windspeed said: In less than six hours, Beryl went from devoid of any mid-level vortex to a partial eyewall. That's absurd. I had just analyzed the storm this morning and accepted, based on in situ recon and the stable airmass parked over the low-level circulation, that it was going to take at least another 24 to regenerate its core. Good grief... Tropical meteorology is the toughest for reason. Too much chaos. This bruh. Legit don’t understand at all what the fuck is going on with this stupid storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 This is an excellent visual of the dry air it’s fighting currently. I actually think the southern portion looks ok, but it’s all fragile until everything is fully mixed out. I think the inflow on the eastern side could easily collapse things. Shear has been gradually pulling away but still lurking as well. Hard to see on the image above but SSTs only increase as it gets closer to the coast. That should make it increasingly easy for deep convection to fire.Yes, Beryl's problem with a partial core, despite deep convection aiding in regenerating an MLC, is that it's not yet shielded off from the stable airmass that still lingers within the southern half of the circulation. The ULL is still too close and feeding that stable air into the mid-levels. And any nascent core is very prone to downdrafts in this scenario. So even this convection and attempt at a new core could rapidly collapse. We'll just have to see if it's resilient. If anything, this kind of continued bursting will moisten and assist in future convection. Obviously, the modest environmental conditions will continue to improve and become more favorable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 It’s getting that shrimp look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Models continue to show the best deepening rates just prior to landfall. Some of them bottom out the pressure right along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Dr. Levi Cowan’s latest:https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4FpPjzTEt_w&embeds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 14 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This is an excellent visual of the dry air it’s fighting currently. I actually think the southern portion looks ok, but it’s all fragile until everything is fully mixed out. I think the inflow on the eastern side could easily collapse things. Shear has been gradually pulling away but still lurking as well. Hard to see on the image above but SSTs only increase as it gets closer to the coast. That should make it increasingly easy for deep convection to fire. Yes, Beryl's problem with a partial core, despite deep convection aiding in regenerating an MLC, is that it's not yet shielded off from the stable airmass that still lingers within the southern half of the circulation. The ULL is still too close and feeding that stable air into the mid-levels. And any nascent core is very prone to downdrafts in this scenario. So even this convection and attempt at a new core could rapidly collapse. We'll just have to see if it's resilient. If anything, this kind of continued bursting will moisten and assist in future convection. Obviously, the modest environmental conditions will continue to improve and become more favorable. I think this is where you just have to hedge and given the system's demonstrated resilience and tenacity, it has earned the benefit of doubt. May sound anecdotal, but at the end of the day it is these anecdotal hunches that usually distinguish between forecast success and failure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 The newest recon pass is still finding only about a 1000 mb pressure. The work has started, but it'll still take the rest of the day and night to rebuild the core. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 These storms have had a history of intensifying up until landfall. Models are showing the same but time should run out before it can get much stronger than a minimal hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: These storms have had a history of intensifying up until landfall. Models are showing the same but time should run out before it can get much stronger than a minimal hurricane. This is why the forecast is for a cat 1 landfall. That is what I went with Thursday night, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is why the forecast is for a cat 1 landfall. That is what I went with Thursday night, too. And it makes perfect sense but it's also a small system so it could build a core and explode in a hurry too. Regardless it'll be a flooding threat mostly with its rather slow movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Final VDM remarks. Kind of middling along with the pressure and surface winds, but… 40 PERCENT EYEWALL WITH SVR TURB WEST WINDS CONSIDERABLY MORE ORGANIZED 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Beryl looks a heck of a lot better organized than when I went to sleep at the 5am advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Pretty much following the HAFS-B which shows very little deepening today and makes landfall in central tx as a 973mb 85kt cat2 at 12z Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 1-minute visible imagery: https://col.st/zFFam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 From Eric Webb at 1:42 PM EDT in response to Ryan Maue showing a sat. image of Harvey 48 hours prior to landfall: While I do agree that #Beryl may rapidly intensify into landfall in Texas later tomorrow, we need to pump the brakes on the “this could be Harvey all over again” paradigm. There are some truly gigantic differences between this and Harvey, in that during Harvey you started from basically nothing, whereas here w/ #Beryl you have a broad center and wind maxima that needs time to consolidate before really getting going again. Also, not to mention #Beryl’s environment isn’t exactly pristine, with a lot of mid-level dry air lurking to the south and moderate-strong southerly wind shear helping to force this dry air into the core. While there are a few exceptions, it’s **much, much** easier for a TC to intensify more quickly when you start with next to nothing like Harvey and just wrap up a tight initial inner core. Contrast that with #Beryl where you’re try to tighten up something that’s initially broad, with a lot more inertial stability to overcome. Historically speaking, most tightly wound cat 4-5s in the Atlantic that unwind then try to reintensify later on usually do so at a much slower pace, even in a great environments. This is likely because the broad pressure field left by the older, relic inner core pumps the breaks truly rapid intensification when it comes to surface winds. In these kinds of storms, you tend to get a lot more deepening, pressure falls, & a larger wind field at the expense of the peak winds having a harder time keeping up. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens here w/ #Beryl https://x.com/webberweather/status/1809643994177237427?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1809643994177237427|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url= 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 3 hours ago, cleetussnow said: I got a flight to Houston landing Tuesday night. Appears to be a non starter. Thinking of switching to Austin - which may be west enough to be less impacted by the storm. Otherwise Dallas may be the best bet. Ultimate destination is college station. I absolutely need to be in college station on Wednesday. Dallas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Already running northeast of the 11am track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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