gymengineer Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Does anyone have a feel for the risk to Jamaica for July 3rd? Relatives of mine have a cruise going there then and I haven’t had any time to look at progs. TIA The NHC's first forecast has a 90 mph hurricane moving over Jamaica at 2 pm on 7/3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 18 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 70 WTNT42 KNHC 282033 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024 The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring over the central tropical Atlantic has developed sufficiently organized deep convection in bands around the center. In addition, visible satellite images show that the circulation has tightened, and the center now appears well-defined. Thus, a tropical depression has formed, and the initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak classifications. Development this far east in late June is unusual, in fact, there have only been a few storms in history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year. The depression is moving westward at 15 kt. A strong subtropical ridge to the north of the system should keep it moving relatively quickly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days. The system might gain a little more latitude toward the end of the forecast period when it nears a weakness in the subtropical ridge. There is a fair amount of spread in the model guidance, especially in the day 3-5 time frame, due to differences in the strength of the ridge and the aforementioned weakness. The NHC track forecast lies near the consensus aids and is slightly south of the middle of the guidance envelope. Based on this forecast, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday and track across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the middle of next week. Typically, the atmospheric environment is unfavorable for intensification in this portion of the Atlantic basin in late June. However, the overall atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear conducive for steady strengthening during the next few days. Accordingly, the official forecast calls for strengthening and shows the depression becoming a tropical storm tonight or early Saturday and then a hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. It should be noted that some of the model guidance is quite aggressive and a fair amount are higher than the official forecast. For example, the hurricane regional models show the system becoming a major hurricane and the GFS model shows the system deepening below 970 mb prior to reaching the Windward Islands. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Two is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, bringing a risk of heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves. 2. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands later tonight or early Saturday. 3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 9.1N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 9.4N 44.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 10.1N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 10.7N 51.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 11.3N 54.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 01/0600Z 12.0N 58.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 13.0N 61.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 15.5N 69.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 17.5N 76.4W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 Incredible how much better the TD 2 looks now than 16 hours ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 This cane season is really going to go to hell in a hand-basket, isn't it... 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 52 minutes ago, andyhb said: This cane season is really going to go to hell in a hand-basket, isn't it... too many hurricanes on hurricane HGH and doing the hurricane equivalent of bonesmashing and mewing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 uptrending mogger alert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 Dennis and Emily first official forecast for comparison https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1806792419813237062 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 2 hours ago, gymengineer said: The NHC's first forecast has a 90 mph hurricane moving over Jamaica at 2 pm on 7/3. Thanks for the update. The cruise schedule is for Grand Cayman (GC) on 7/2, when Beryl would be ~750-500 miles ESE. But I suppose they may even cancel the 7/2 GC visit to stay well ahead of the storm and not have to rush from there. So, after the 7/1 planned stop in Cozumel, it appears the itinerary will change drastically between then and the planned 7/5 Bahamas stop. I wonder what they’ll do. Maybe add another Yucatan stop before getting out of harm’s way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 2 hours ago, gymengineer said: The NHC's first forecast has a 90 mph hurricane moving over Jamaica at 2 pm on 7/3. @GaWx that area is definitely a spot that should be on alert next week. 2 hours ago, andyhb said: This cane season is really going to go to hell in a hand-basket, isn't it... Yeah… 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: @GaWx that area is definitely a spot that should be on alert next week. Yeah… I just realized there may be a way the cruise gets to all of the ports of call on the itinerary. The planned stops were Cozumel on 7/1, Grand Cayman (GC) on 7/2, Jamaica on 7/3, and NW Bahamas on 7/5. I wonder if they could reverse most of it and do this: Jamaica on 7/1, GC on 7/2, Cozumel on 7/3, and then hightail it out of there to NW Bahamas 7/4. I might suggest that lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 I think we will have Beryl by 5AM AST, if not the 11PM. Even with easterly mid-level flow displacing/tilting the core convection slightly west of the LLC, TD2 has strong convection wrapping the vortex. It's not an excellent upper level environment through the core of the depression's column yet, but it appears to be improving with time. Certainly, there is not enough hindrance to prevent steady intensification, which clearly appears to be ongoing. It would not be a stretch to imagine TS force winds within the northern and ridge interacting side of the circulation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Beryl is exploding. That’s a 50-60kt presentation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Upgrade coming very soon. Seeing a 120 mph+ strike on the Antilles incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a hurricane by 5 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Given the improving presentation this looks like a tropical storm and if this organization continues hurricane watches will certainly be warranted at 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 New SHIPS run continues with amazingly high probabilities of RI for this region this early in the season, especially the 65 kt/72 hour threshold. Can't be stressed enough that this part of the Atlantic and Caribbean is usually where TCs go to die this early in the year. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Given the improving presentation this looks like a tropical storm and if this organization continues hurricane watches will certainly be warranted at 11pm. 2 minutes ago, andyhb said: New SHIPS run continues with amazingly high probabilities of RI for this region this early in the season, especially the 65 kt/72 hour threshold. Can't be stressed enough that this part of the Atlantic and Caribbean is usually where TCs go to die this early in the year. JFL at TROPICAL TIDBITS Tropical Storm BERYL As of 00:00 UTC Jun 29, 2024: Location: 9.2°N 42.7°W Maximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: N/A Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb Environmental Pressure: N/A Radius of Circulation: N/A Radius of Maximum wind: 40 nm 34 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant: AL, 02, 2024062900, , BEST, 0, 92N, 427W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 40, 1011, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERYL, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 3 minutes ago, andyhb said: New SHIPS run continues with amazingly high probabilities of RI for this region this early in the season, especially the 65 kt/72 hour threshold. Can't be stressed enough that this part of the Atlantic and Caribbean is usually where TCs go to die this early in the year. Definitely taking SHIPS more seriously now that we have a well defined center. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Satellite presentation looks like a hurricane. This things rapidly intensifying folks 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 29 Author Share Posted June 29 AL, 02, 2024062900, , BEST, 0, 92N, 427W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 40, 1011, 150, 40, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERYL, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Officially Beryl now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 19 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: AL, 02, 2024062900, , BEST, 0, 92N, 427W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 40, 1011, 150, 40, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERYL, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008, What a mogger ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM BERYL... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.3N 43.6W ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Officially Beryl now mogs me ngl FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 9.3N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 9.7N 46.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 10.4N 49.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 11.0N 53.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 11.7N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 12.5N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 13.6N 63.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 16.0N 71.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 17.8N 77.8W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 By the way, how does everyone say BERYL? I always pronounce this name as BURL, like Milton Berle. This was confirmed by Forecaster Stacy Stewart when the name was used in 2006. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 29 Author Share Posted June 29 NHC website has 2 syllables. Beryl BEHR-ril https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/aboutnames_pronounce_atlc.pdf 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Satellite presentation looks like a hurricane. This things rapidly intensifying folks It may go full MOG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Need a contest! Is it BURL, or is it BEHR-Ril ????? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 A low-level reconnaissance flight will be investigating on Saturday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 No change in thinking tonight. Once recon gets there they find a solid hurricane imo. It’s way ahead of schedule. Major major cane strike for the Antilles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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