CoastalWx Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Beryl continues to lose any colder cloud tops on satellite. Looks to be in tough shape. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Beryl continues to lose any colder cloud tops on satellite. Looks to be in tough shape. It really took a beating. This is a really tough forecast and I wonder how many in the general public will take it seriously if it’s still a mess tomorrow and the track guidance keeps shifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 she's a resilient overperformer! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 It really took a beating. This is a really tough forecast and I wonder how many in the general public will take it seriously if it’s still a mess tomorrow and the track guidance keeps shifting.Keep an eye on this convection that is building. It's in a motion that may wrap into the tilted vortex. It's also hinting of the higher heat content that the circulation will start moving over during the early morning hours. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Aside, can anyone educate me as to why sea surface temps are always consistently cooler just off the northern Yucatán? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 2 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Aside, can anyone educate me as to why sea surface temps are always consistently cooler just off the northern Yucatán? Windspeed has a good explanation here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60838-tropical-storm-beryl-hurricane-watch-mouth-of-rio-to-sargent-texas/?do=findComment&comment=7344239 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 7 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Aside, can anyone educate me as to why sea surface temps are always consistently cooler just off the northern Yucatán? The coastal area north of Yucatan has experienced a cooling SST trend from 1982 to 2015 during the upwelling season (May–September) that contrasts with the warming observed at the adjacent ocean area. Different drivers were analyzed to identify the possible causes of that unusual coastal cooling. Changes in coastal upwelling and in sea-atmosphere heat fluxes are not consistent with the observed coastal cooling. The eastward shift of the Yucatan Current observed over the last decades is hypothesized as the most probable cause of coastal cooling. This shift enhances the vertical transport of cold deeper water to the continental shelf from where it is pumped to the surface by upwelling favorable westerly winds. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0924796317303317#:~:text=The%20eastward%20shift%20of%20the,by%20upwelling%20favorable%20westerly%20winds. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Eps trended north, has a lot of members near Houston although the mean is south of Houston. Also plenty of members show it racing from TX up to OH like the Icon indicating the troff scooped it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Beryl continues to lose any colder cloud tops on satellite. Looks to be in tough shape. It's not over the really warm water yet, not to mention the core distuption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's not over the really warm water yet, not to mention the core distuption. Yeah just commenting on how it looked. It’s basically a mid level cloud swirl with a few downpours lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah just commenting on how it looked. It’s basically a mid level cloud swirl with a few downpours lol. I don't expect much intensification until Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Lady is stripping off its clothes. Latest fix is WSW of the previous one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Haircut time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 11pm EST update. Watches extended east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah just commenting on how it looked. It’s basically a mid level cloud swirl with a few downpours lol. Looks like quite a bit of SSE shear there is not much left almost looks like the system has split in two low level circulation has been taken away from the mid-level circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 GEFS trended SW and weaker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 6 Author Share Posted July 6 7 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I was typing Windspeed's comments almost verbatim when he posted. I think the hurricane watch comes further N, just seeing most Euro ensembles are W of where the center appears ready to emerge, and where the op Euro and the center of the spread is. I was expecting the San Luis Pass breakpoint, the county line between Brazoria and Galveston counties. Based on Alberto covering Galveston island outside the Seawall, the surge product should have also been further N. EDIT TO ADD: Euro verbatim being sustained TS force winds into Galveston Bay and the Bolivar Peninsula. I'm glad they listened. Near 1000 mb, it will take time for it to strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 It's understandable why the GFS is showing only minor strengthening before Texas landfall. Beryl was gutted by the combination of land and shear. It will have to restart from scratch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 6 Author Share Posted July 6 39 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: It's understandable why the GFS is showing only minor strengthening before Texas landfall. Beryl was gutted by the combination of land and shear. It will have to restart from scratch. It seems it took both shear and land to kill it. No reason not to think it won't eventually reorganize, high res hurricane model suggests a TS or Cat 1. I wouldn't rule out a category higher, although SHIPS doesn't show mid-level RH getting over 60% and a landfall strength right at a minimum Cat 1. Looks like trend N has slowed or stopped. Heaviest rain missed the Hill Country per GFS, Lake Travis looks to remain 40% full or about 500 feet low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 ICON could be scoring a coup on this, Beryl certainly looks like it is heading for east Texas or even Sabine Pass, and that puts an Audrey evolution in play (Audrey cat-4 landfall June 26-27 1957, catastrophic storm surge and coastal wind damage, and also a long inland path of heavy rainfalls extending into midwest US and lower Great Lakes). Audrey started out from Gulf of Campeche and earlier was only a tropical wave in Caribbean (albeit a week earlier in season). But ominously, storm summary mentions anomalous warmth of Gulf waters in June 1957 at 85F (some readings in path of Beryl are 86-87F). Also Audrey continued to deepen to near landfall and some disputed readings suggest an even stronger storm than is officially catalogued. Some measuring devices were destroyed before peak of storm passed. A large death toll (400-600) ensued mainly from storm surge around Cameron LA. Nobody can be certain of course, but I will punt for possible outcome being a strong cat-3 or weak cat-4 landfall near Galveston or even further east, Tuesday afternoon-evening. The upper level steering environment is almost featureless and if Beryl has another rapid intensification it will cut through a weak upper ridge and join up with trof developing over central plains states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 2 hours ago, Roger Smith said: ICON could be scoring a coup on this, Beryl certainly looks like it is heading for east Texas or even Sabine Pass, and that puts an Audrey evolution in play (Audrey cat-4 landfall June 26-27 1957, catastrophic storm surge and coastal wind damage, and also a long inland path of heavy rainfalls extending into midwest US and lower Great Lakes). Audrey started out from Gulf of Campeche and earlier was only a tropical wave in Caribbean (albeit a week earlier in season). But ominously, storm summary mentions anomalous warmth of Gulf waters in June 1957 at 85F (some readings in path of Beryl are 86-87F). Also Audrey continued to deepen to near landfall and some disputed readings suggest an even stronger storm than is officially catalogued. Some measuring devices were destroyed before peak of storm passed. A large death toll (400-600) ensued mainly from storm surge around Cameron LA. Nobody can be certain of course, but I will punt for possible outcome being a strong cat-3 or weak cat-4 landfall near Galveston or even further east, Tuesday afternoon-evening. The upper level steering environment is almost featureless and if Beryl has another rapid intensification it will cut through a weak upper ridge and join up with trof developing over central plains states. I am REALLY jumping the gun here. That said, I can't begin to express how relieved I am of Beryl going so far east. Buda will have hot weather and not a drop of rain and pleasant sunny skies. Beryl's remnants are moving right along. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Torch tiger I see you have awarded me a hot dog. Models all point to a Beryl LF much farther east. Beryl is very weak. The storm may redevelop but it will make LF much farther east. It is entirely possible Beryl will landfall in Houston on Tuesday afternoon-evening. If so, Buda will be hot and sunny. NWS says axis of heavy rain will be along and east of US highway 77, which is 70 plus miles east of Buda.. That is quite far east of Buda. That is well east of Bastrop. To say that I am relieved is a gross understatement. Storm is also moving fairly fast. Because of the track, I am now so far west, that I can reasonably expect mostly sunny skies and at least mid 90s temps. Hot dog me to your hearts content, but I am quite safe from Beryl in Buda. The track will be far enough to the east relative to my location, that I am assured hot humid dry conditions. I. REST. MY. CASE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Beryl's mid-level vorticity is nonexistent this morning. The ULL is forcing extremely dry stable airmass into the remainder of Beryl's broader 700-400 hPa circulation. Without any compact MLC, all that remains is Beryl's surface low. Though that low remains very well-defined, the RMW is now over 60 miles at the surface. It's going to be a slower process for a core to rebuild and shield off the effects of all that lingering stable airmass. You can easily see the ULL is still pumping that airmass into the COC from the southwestern GOM on water vapor imagery.Beryl may need another 24 hours to produce enough convection over the center to regenerate a core. The current environmental state has squashed any concern I had of a potential major landfall yesterday. Simply put, Beryl just doesn't have enough time now. But I do think Beryl will eventually produce enough deep convection near the center to regenerate a mid-level vortex, and should have enough time to tighten its RMW and regain hurricane intensity, which the official forecast continues to call for, and remains well-supported by TC modeling. Beryl may end up with a larger core; therefore, wind and surge impacts could cover a larger area of Texas coastline. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Convection starting fire up, see if it can persist 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 The HAFS suite, in general, did an excellent job modeling Beryl's interactions with the ULL, including the dry stable airmass that now plagues its circulation this morning. Despite current conditions, it's important to note that persistent runs of these models, especially the HAFS-B, regenerate and tighten Beryl's vortex by the time it interacts with the Texas coast. Convection needs to burst and persist, not only regenerate an MLC, but stack the column if the RMW is to sufficiently tighten within an eyewall. Any delay in that process decreases the hurricane threat, and the official forecast could always come down. Still, as 40/70 Benchmark alluded to yesterday, a northward turn track adjacent to the Texas coast allows enough land interaction to assist Beryl in tightening the LLC. The NHC's forecast of 80 kts near the coast is quite reasonable. Mid-to-upper environmental conditions will continuously improve throughout this afternoon until landfall on Monday. With sufficient instability and divergence aloft, Beryl should be an intensifying hurricane through landfall. Hopefully, with the current delay and slow process of reorganizing today, we will avoid any rapid intensification on Monday. But a lot can change in 48-60 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Starting to fire near center. Dry air could be the major inhibitor. Interesting forecast, shear weakens to non existent before landfall but current state leaves much to be desired. Storm had to start over. This current convective episode will be telling, if it can sustain and begin forming a cdo, sure maybe it can become a decent cane. It’s got to get its act together quickly. I was shocked, this thing looked very coherent coming off land yesterday in satellite, then recon showed the mlc had detached from the surface low and that sat image was a sham. Really highlights importance of recon. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Something else I keep noticing is a trend in the TC models to show an intense feeder or two off of the GOM long after Beryl is already well-inland and making the turn NE. These feeders could train over the same coastal regions of Texas and produce flash flooding. No where near as severe as Harvey, mind you, as Beryl should be lifting out of Texas much faster with trough interaction. But these bands off the GOM, given strong instability and training convection, do not take long to produce flash flooding. People in that region are hardened to flood-producing TCs. But they certainly don't need to deal with any more. Hopefully, Beryl's forward motion mitigates this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Appears Beryl is attempting to re-create a new CDO and pull the low level center in. If this all re-aligns, could be off to the races later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Yea, already looks ahead of schedule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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