Hurricane Beryl - Hurricane Warning - Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass Texas

[Amped]

Already northeast of the forecast.

[weatherCCB]

Looks to be moving NNW.  
Guess we’ll see in next update

[GaWx]

 The small hope I have is that Beryl struggles to re-intensify off of the Yucatan like the struggle of Isidore of 2002. Any thoughts? I remember this well. It was very large , which probably was a negating factor. Beryl is much smaller. Thus, my hope for a slow re-intensification like for Isidore is limited:

"The inner core of convection collapsed while over southeast Mexico, and upon moving northward and reaching the Gulf of Mexico again, it was a large but weak tropical storm. Conditions favored significant strengthening, but Isidore did not redevelop central convection until reaching the northern Gulf of Mexico. The strengthening system hit Grand Isle, Louisiana on September 26 with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (105 km/h)"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Isidore

 To see how large Isidore was over the Yucatan, look at figure 4.a in here:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL102002_Isidore.pdf

[Windspeed]

The mid-to-upper flow around the ULL over the western GOM combined with Beryl's forward motion seems to have thrown a wrench into forecast modeling. Beryl's center is north of the EPS again. The OPs have continued to shift north. This does two things: 1) obviously increases threat up the Texas coastline and 2) tracks Beryl further away from the influences of shear and stable airmass and into a region of higher divergence aloft. How well does Beryl's core hold together this evening before reemerging? How quickly can the vortex regenerate? Honestly, I am getting a little uneasy for a potential major hurricane landfall now.

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The mid-to-upper flow around the ULL over the western GOM combined with Beryl's forward motion seems to have thrown a wrench into forecast modeling. Beryl's center is north of the EPS again. The OPs have continued to shift north. This does two things: 1) obviously increases threat up the Texas coastline and 2) tracks Beryl's further away from the influences of shear and stable airmass and into a region of higher divergence aloft. How well does Beryl's core hold together this evening before reemerging? How quickly can the vortex regenerate? Honestly, I am getting a little uneasy for a potential major hurricane landfall now.

Do you think they can be "saved" by an Isidore-like very slow restrengthening as per my post above? I distinctly recall models/forecasters were almost unanimous in expecting a reintensifcation of Isidore back into a MH after moving off of the Yucatan due to the great organization, but the convection was very slow to reform.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

The new
intensity forecast now calls for an 80-kt intensity at landfall in
best agreement with the HWRF, HAFS-B, and HMON models, and this
could be conservative if Beryl stays over water longer than
currently forecast.

[Amped]

Icon not backing down from 12z. Earlier landfall in almost the same location with a slightly lower pressure.

[Windspeed]

Do you think they can be "saved" by an Isidore-like very slow restrengthening as per my post above? I distinctly recall models/forecasters were almost unanimous in expecting a reintensifcation of Isidore back into a MH after moving off of the Yucatan due to the great organization, but the convection was very slow to reform.

Isidore was a larger TC. It also stalled over the Yucatán for so long, it devolved into essentially very large surface/monsoonal trough. The boundary regions far away from the center kept firing intense convection, delaying low-level convergence in Isidore's broad center. The result was a sloppy mess that was only ever able to slowly reorganize. By the time Isidore had tightened its vortex, it was inland over Louisiana. I don't think it even reached Cat 1 again.

Beryl may have to regenerate its low-level vortex, but it won't spend enough time inland today and should remain fairly compact. It isn't a large TC to begin with. Furthermore, though it may have some delay in low-level convergence due to convection north of the center, that's not occurring in all quadrants. The core should be able to reorganize fairly quickly tomorrow.

[NorthHillsWx]

Beryls overall structure does not look that bad for coming off land. At face value, I see nothing structure wise that wouldn’t support restrengthening. As for environment, it seems to be getting progressively better for the storm. It’s under the highest shear it will face and is holding its own. I’m changing my tune with this further north track being realized, I think this has MH potential. Never did I think it would look this good or end up this far north coming off the Yucatán. Texas needs to start prepping now

[USCG RS]

29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The small hope I have is that Beryl struggles to re-intensify off of the Yucatan like the struggle of Isidore of 2002. Any thoughts? I remember this well. It was very large , which probably was a negating factor. Beryl is much smaller. Thus, my hope for a slow re-intensification like for Isidore is limited:

"The inner core of convection collapsed while over southeast Mexico, and upon moving northward and reaching the Gulf of Mexico again, it was a large but weak tropical storm. Conditions favored significant strengthening, but Isidore did not redevelop central convection until reaching the northern Gulf of Mexico. The strengthening system hit Grand Isle, Louisiana on September 26 with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (105 km/h)"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Isidore

 To see how large Isidore was over the Yucatan, look at figure 4.a in here:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL102002_Isidore.pdf

 

26 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The mid-to-upper flow around the ULL over the western GOM combined with Beryl's forward motion seems to have thrown a wrench into forecast modeling. Beryl's center is north of the EPS again. The OPs have continued to shift north. This does two things: 1) obviously increases threat up the Texas coastline and 2) tracks Beryl further away from the influences of shear and stable airmass and into a region of higher divergence aloft. How well does Beryl's core hold together this evening before reemerging? How quickly can the vortex regenerate? Honestly, I am getting a little uneasy for a potential major hurricane landfall now.

Look at that outflow both Poleward and Equatorward already. That core is resilient and in tact. 

[Amped]

2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Isidore was a larger TC. It also stalled over the Yucatán for so long, it devolved into essentially very large surface/monsoonal trough. The boundary regions far away from the center kept firing intense convection, delaying low-level convergence in Isidore's broad center. The result was a sloppy mess that was only ever able to slowly reorganize. By the time Isidore had tightened its vortex, it was inland over Louisiana. I don't think it even reached Cat 1 again.

Beryl may have to regenerate its low-level vortex, but it won't spend enough time inland today and should remain fairly compact. It isn't a large TC to begin with. Furthermore, though it may have some delay in low-level convergence due to convection north of the center, that's not occurring in all quadrants. The core should be able to reorganize fairly quickly tomorrow.

Isadore also had a lot less time to reorganize.  It moved rather quickly  Beryl may not resume intensification until tomorrow night and still have time to make Cat2 before landfall at 6z Monday.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I was typing Windspeed's comments almost verbatim when he posted.  I think the hurricane watch comes further N, just seeing most Euro ensembles are W of where the center appears ready to emerge, and where the op Euro and the center of the spread is.  I was expecting the San Luis Pass breakpoint, the county line between Brazoria and Galveston counties.  Based on Alberto covering Galveston island outside the Seawall, the surge product should have also been further N.

EDIT TO ADD:

Euro verbatim being sustained TS force winds into Galveston Bay and the Bolivar Peninsula.

[Windspeed]

NHC 5PM discussion...

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, Amped said:

Isadore also had a lot less time to reorganize.  It moved rather quickly  Beryl may not resume intensification until tomorrow night and still have time to make Cat2 before landfall at 6z Monday.

 Indeed, Isidore had only 48 hours over water vs Beryl’s projected ~72 hours. Oh well, it wasn’t a big hope to begin with, especially due to Beryl’s much smaller size.

[Amped]

One more thing I like about the Icon (Just a hunch) is it's handling of Beryls interacting with the troff post landfall.  Every other model is ripping Beryl apart over TX/AR and leaving some of the energy behind.  Icon is showing a quicker recurve and a full capture. Usually that's what happens with deeper troffs, recurve is faster than modeled and no energy left behind.

[Windspeed]

Low-level reconnaissance is sampling the storm and should give us an idea of how close the COC is to the coast. Earlier, they flew through the strong convection to the north of Beryl, in the outer band, and there does not yet appear to be anything organized in the mid-levels out over the GOM. So, there is no sign of competing vorticity that was hinted at in earlier runs of the HAFS suite.

[gymengineer]

Matt Lanza’s always helpful write-ups for The Eyewall:

https://theeyewall.com

[gymengineer]

Recon indicates Beryl’s center made it to the Gulf of Mexico. 

[Scott747]

12 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Matt Lanza’s always helpful write-ups for The Eyewall:

https://theeyewall.com

He and the SCW crew took a hit with their rep after the derecho. And been downplaying any threat with Beryl and now backtracking...

[Amped]

The 18z GFS shows a westerly jog in the track between 36 and 42hrs and again between 54 and 60hrs.  Both of these look suspect, there should be a steady NW track with a gradual turn toward the north.

[Windspeed]

Shelf waters north of the Yucatán are relatively cool between March and July. This is a climatological norm for that part of the GOM due to persistent vertical transport of cold, deeper water onto shallow continental shelf north of the Yucatán, and upwelling from low-level trades. Additionally, some influence of drag off of the warm Yucatán Current (Gulf Stream), which is further east within the Yucatán channel, aid in cool water extending north. This persistent upwelling keeps SSTs several degrees Celsius below the warmer overall background GOM temperatures, usually ranging from 24 to 27°C along the northern Yucatán coast in June and July while the rest of the GOM ranges from 27-30°C. This typically halts intensification in TCs that track or wonder too close to there or delay reintensification of TCs moving back off of the peninsula into the GOM. But it's not a large surface area of ocean comparatively as SSTs increase substantially only about 100-150 miles north. As such, I wouldn't expect Beryl to immediately begin reintensification after reemerging over water until it's well northwest of the Yucatán, regardless of its core structure or upper-level environment.

[Amped]

Dropsonde 998mb, it took a pretty big hit.

[cptcatz]

5 minutes ago, Amped said:

Dropsonde 998mb, it took a pretty big hit.

But the center is now back over water and it's a pretty good bit east. 

[Windspeed]

Based on reconnaissance, it looks like Beryl's MLC is decoupled or significantly titled downstream to the ENE of the low-level center. This is due to influences of the mid-to-upper level low over the western GOM. I anticipated this last night, and it was simulated in numerous TC models. But recon also did not find any other competing mid-level vorticity to the north. So, for now, we just have Beryl's dominant mid-level vortex. We'll have to wait and see if that MLC takes over by tomorrow or if the old low-level center regenerates a new vortex further southwest in track. Again, implications are high in both how quickly Beryl reintensifies and ultimately landfall location in Texas.

[Windspeed]

Some good discussion on current and potential future structure of Beryl going on right now.

[jrips27]

18z Euro continues the NE trend…

[WxWatcher007]

Importantly, tilted rather than fully decoupled. 

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, jrips27 said:

18z Euro continues the NE trend…

Not as strong on this run. 982 vs ~970.

[g0ldl10n]

On 7/1/2024 at 3:27 PM, g0ldl10n said:

How seriously should we take the NAVGEM models forecast.. it's outlook for path making landfall in LA has been pretty consistent over the past few runs.. its forecasted lowest pressure is also right at landfall in these runs. 

 

Well dang, this track from July 1 12z run from the NAVGEM is extremely accurate up to this point. Modeled pressure at current location of Beryl and this model is also only off by 5mb of offical NHC pressure right now. Quite interesting. 

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2024070112&fh=108

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

KTRK 13 Travis Herzog showed a forecast model he suggested was AccuWeather proprietary and not available online that through 48 hours showed the center of Beryl just N/E of the right side cone and perhaps turning enough to actually miss Houston to the E.  He stopped the model, I think to avoid hype with a system outside the NHC cone.