NorthHillsWx Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 5 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Somewhere along the Laguna Madre of Texas as possibly a Cat 2 making a run at Cat 3 intensity would be a nice consolation prize. Color me skeptical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Beryl has exceeded an ACE value of 30 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Color me skeptical The two main factors are how quickly does or will the upper air low in the western bay of Campeche get out of the way and can Beryl slow down and sort of get slung a bit to the WNW or even NW to slow and develop underneath an area of developing area of high pressure as the upper air low vacates west bound. I think in regards if Beryl can get itself together and strike as a Cat 1 to Cat 3 hurricane the odds are like 45% that it will and 55% that it won't so yea 50/50 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 As a native houstonian who now lives in Cali…..I’m very very nervous. If you want a hurricane in Houston, these are the model plots you want to see (because they always adjust north when a western gulf storm recurving). Add that to the fact that the fucker crossed Cozumel when zero models showed this……ya I’m nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 ...BERYL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 88.3W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 The center of Beryl made landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico just northeast of Tulum at about 11Z. The landfall intensity is somewhat uncertain, but surface observations suggest the central pressure rose into the 977-980 mb range before landfall. The cyclone is now weakening as it moves farther inland, and the initial intensity is reduced to 75 kt. The initial motion is now 290/14 kt. For the next 24 h or so, Beryl should be steered generally west-northwestward by the western portion of the subtropical ridge over the southeastern United States. After that, a turn toward the northwest is likely as the storm moves towards a break in the ridge caused by a combination of a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies over the central United States and an upper-level trough moving westward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This motion should bring the center near the western Gulf coast in about 72 h. Subsequently, a northward motion through the break appears likely. While the track guidance has come into better agreement, there is still uncertainty based on the possible strength and vertical depth of Beryl. A stronger and vertically deeper cyclone would feel more steering from upper-level southwesterly flow caused by the Gulf trough, and thus would have a more northward motion, while a weaker system would probably continue more northwestward. Overall the guidance favors the more northward motion and has shifted a little to the right, and the new official forecast also is nudged a little to the right of the previous forecast. Additional adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary later today. Beryl should continue to weaken while over land, and it is expected to emerge over the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm. After that, it could take 12-24 h for the cyclone's structure to recover over the Gulf of Mexico before re-intensification can begin in earnest. Based on this and the overall trends of the intensity guidance, the new forecast calls for gradual strengthening to start after 24 h and continue until landfall. One important note is that the GFS and ECMWF suggest that ongoing westerly shear could decrease after 48-60 h, accompanied by an increase in upper-level divergence. Should this occur, Beryl could strengthen more than currently forecast, especially if the center stays over water longer than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 20.7N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 12H 06/0000Z 21.4N 90.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 06/1200Z 22.5N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 23.6N 94.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 24.6N 95.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 25.6N 96.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 26.8N 97.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR COAST 96H 09/1200Z 29.0N 98.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/1200Z 31.0N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Color me skeptical I’m not sure about landfall location yet, but I’m bullish. I think the combination of potential jet enhancement and frictional convergence near the coast could lead to a period of significant intensification. We of course have to see what it looks like after crossing the Yucatán, but any semblance of a core increases the chances it pulls itself together faster than anticipated. If shear is more pesky in the Gulf that could slow it down, but I don’t think that’s a high likelihood. That also reduces the likelihood dry air gets entrained in a meaningful way. One other thing to closely watch is the final approach heading. A more due north heading would have obvious implications on track and I believe intensity too. 12z spaghetti 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m not sure about landfall location yet, but I’m bullish. I think the combination of potential jet enhancement and frictional convergence near the coast could lead to a period of significant intensification. We of course have to see what it looks like after crossing the Yucatán, but any semblance of a core increases the chances it pulls itself together faster than anticipated. If shear is more pesky in the Gulf that could slow it down, but I don’t think that’s a high likelihood. That also reduces the likelihood dry air gets entrained in a meaningful way. One other thing to closely watch is the final approach heading. A more due north heading would have obvious implications on track and I believe intensity too. 12z spaghetti I agree. That is the scenario that I laid out in my First Call last night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 12z Icon nails Galveston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z Icon nails Galveston Shifted north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Beryl is a fighter and if the resiliency of this storm has showed us anything, East Texas should be bracing for the ceiling scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Is it normal for what seems to be a little bit of convection still happening while Beryl is over the Yucatan? Not a whole lot, but a little? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 A 2nd Mexico landfall seems unlikely now. A few days ago it seemed very likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Is there a link to good radar which covers Beryl at the moment? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 This Texas LF gets far enough east, Austin may be in the clear. That, looks increasingly likely. Very good news. This could even turn out to be a New Orleans LF. I can feel the incredible relief and rising joy, kind of like the way people felt when WWII was over!!!!!!!! 2 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 9 minutes ago, klw said: Is there a link to good radar which covers Beryl at the moment? thanks https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/observando-el-tiempo/radares-meteorologicos-separador/visor-radares-v3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 1 minute ago, Jebman said: This Texas LF gets far enough east, Austin may be in the clear. That, looks increasingly likely. Very good news. Still way too far out to be making claims like this. We have zero idea what the circulation is going to look like once it gets back offshore and the northward motion on the models is predicated by the strength of beryl. Stronger = further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Plus the ICON has been all over the place with this storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 9 minutes ago, klw said: Is there a link to good radar which covers Beryl at the moment? thanks Cancun radar Mexico radar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Just now, Chargers09 said: Plus the ICON has been all over the place with this storm True enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 The 12z GFS has Beryl becoming so broad and disorganized that it is only able to get itself together at the very last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: The 12z GFS has Beryl becoming so broad and disorganized that it is barely able to get itself together before moving into Texas. Models having a tough time with intensity especially for a relatively small hurricane like Beryl 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 16 minutes ago, Jebman said: This Texas LF gets far enough east, Austin may be in the clear. That, looks increasingly likely. Very good news. This could even turn out to be a New Orleans LF. I can feel the incredible relief and rising joy, kind of like the way people felt when WWII was over!!!!!!!! I think its time for one of your patented "Jeb Walks"......particularly one that takes you in the opposite direction from your keyboard. 4 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 I’ll be curious to see what’s left of the core in a few hours. It’s taken a beating but it’s already halfway across the Yucatán. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 16 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The 12z GFS has Beryl becoming so broad and disorganized that it is only able to get itself together at the very last minute. This happens a lot, where the only way for the core to tighten after becoming disorganized is frictional effect in the few hours before landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 12Z UKMET landfall is all of the way up to Corpus Christi. The 0Z run was in NE MX. But this isn’t at all surprising considering clearcut N trends. 12Z CMC at MX/TX border, which is ~100 miles N of 0Z run. It is still the furthest S landfall by far compared to the ICON (Galveston), GFS (CC), and UKMET (CC). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Yeah, that Beryl looks photogenic on MW, surprisingly so, much better than any MW since the Lesser Antilles 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 12Z GEFS: increase in strong members to the NE (I see at least 5 members there between strong cat 1 and cat 2): 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 By the way, did the hurricane hunters complete a recon before landfall at 11z? I can't tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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