Hurricane Beryl - Hurricane Warning - Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass Texas

[hawkeye_wx]

Pressure is up to 972 mb, so it's weakening steadily tonight.

[Jebman]

50 minutes ago, GaWx said:

It’s unanimous for the main 0Z globals. The 0Z Euro is also further N than the 12Z (by 125+ miles) and is even ~100 miles N of the 18Z! Though pretty strong, it isn’t as strong as the 18Z. Landfall is halfway between Brownsville and Corpus Christi!

 So, 3 of these 5 0Z globals are in TX.

 Anyone following the 0Z hurricane models?

We better hope this is only a tropical storm. Or a depression. And that this DOES NOT SLOW DOWN.

[Windspeed]

Pressure is up to 972 mb, so it's weakening steadily tonight.

Beryl's vortex is tilted again. Shear is winning for now. That being said, the NW quadrant of the eyewall appears strong on radar. It also shows up / aligns perfectly with colorized IR, that section of eyewall (purples), which is actually so well defined right now because strong flow aloft is countering the overshooting top. Anyhow, Beryl will still pack a punch where that section of eyewall crosses the shoreline.

[Windspeed]

If shear does not abate while Beryl is over the Yucatán, the tilted vortex, deprived of high oceanic heat content to sustain updrafts, will rapidly shear off. Even with just a short amount of time, there won't be strong enough updrafts to keep the mid-level circulation driven from the low-level circulation, and they will separate. Both HAFS models simulate this well in their 0z runs. On the other hand, shear should begin to decrease as Beryl moves into the southwestern GOM. Beryl should remain a compact surface low. The better environment may allow a vortex to regenerate quickly.

[Floydbuster]

14 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

If shear does not abate while Beryl is over the Yucatán, the tilted vortex, deprived of high oceanic heat content to sustain updrafts, will rapidly shear off. Even with just a short amount of time, there won't be strong enough updrafts to keep the mid-level circulation driven from the low-level circulation, and they will separate. Both HAFS models simulate this well in their 0z runs. On the other hand, shear should begin to decrease as Beryl moves into the southwestern GOM. Beryl should remain a compact surface low. The better environment may allow a vortex to regenerate quickly.

Yeah it will be fascinating to see if Beryl's smaller size allows it to crank back up faster after the Yucatan.

[Windspeed]

Beryl is minutes away from its second landfall. The NW eyewall is currently over Cozumel Island.

Edit: Notice the influence the flow around the ULL has on Beryl, now pulling on the CDO. You can see the ULL stretching the cloudtop canopy towards the NNW.

[Floydbuster]

NHC official forecast now shows a landfall in South Texas.

[Windspeed]

Looks like what's left of the NW eyewall is weakening rapidly on radar. Notice the end of the animation: As the band crosses Cozumel, it falls apart.

Edit: That may look more rapid due to absent data on radar. There is a blank sector in the beam in the direction down the Rivera Maya coastline. Not to complain, it's nice to have access to radar down there. But the array is situated very poorly by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional for the beam coverage to be so bad for their own shoreline.

[Jebman]

Now we need to see how strong this gets after the Yucatan LF, then exactly where it makes its TX LF then how fast or slow it moves and the track over TX will determine rain amounts.

I think we can handle 5 inches, but don't think we will see that much. Two inches would be fine. That would put us at 30 for the year.

This is the latest disco from NWS for South Central Texas.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EWX&issuedby=EWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

.LONG TERM...

(Saturday night through Thursday)

Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

 

The surface boundary weakens and dissipates Saturday night into Sunday. Forcing wanes leading to showers and thunderstorms gradually ending. Seasonally hot temperatures are expected. As mentioned in previous discussions, focus then turns to Hurricane Beryl and its impacts on South Central Texas. It will move into a weakness in the Subtropical Ridge caused by an upper level trough over the Central States. The exact track and speed remain uncertain for early into middle of next week. Though it may enter an area of weaker flow aloft by mid week. In addition, a surface boundary sags south into Central Texas while a weak tropical wave (formerly Invest 96L) moves in from the Gulf of Mexico. Forcing by these features will generate areas of rain and showers with light to moderate instability allowing for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. PWs of 2 to 2.5+ inches and possible slower cell motions indicate a potential for efficient rainfall processes to allow for heavy rains, possible nighttime core rains. The heavy rains will likely be the main threat from Beryl. There remains a potential for strong winds, although this remains uncertain. This will depend on the amount of weakening based on the interaction with land after landfall along the northeastern Mexico or southern Texas coast. At a minimum, gusty winds seem possible in rain bands. Finally, depending on the track, there is a non-zero tornado threat along and east of its track. Any of the impacts are highly dependent on the track and strength of Beryl. It is too early to determine rainfall totals for our area, however there is a potential for multiple inches along and near its track. Due to the extensive clouds and areas of rain, temperatures, especially highs, will be below normal, possibly well below normal.

Stay tuned for updates as this situation evolves.

[Windspeed]

The radar out of Cancun is delayed. But radar out of Pinar del Rio, Cuba shows the center of circulation is near the southern tip of Cozumel. It's very close to being an official landfall there.

[Scott747]

Quite the shift in track with the latest advisory. Across South Padre e of Port Isabel and then just s of Port Mansfield.

[nycwinter]

sometimes as a weakening and somewhat disorganized hurricane makes landfall the friction can cause the center to tighten up and align better...

[Jebman]

16 minutes ago, Scott747 said:

Quite the shift in track with the latest advisory. Across South Padre e of Port Isabel and then just s of Port Mansfield.

if it moves N along the coast, we may end up with some rain then it passes north and hopefully east of us at good speed, 100+ temps and sunshine can continue the normal July dry out and warmup on into August here.

[BlunderStorm]

Lots of activity bubbling up north of Beryl's center. I wonder if as the core unravels this morning we could see the center of low pressure shift over to the north some?

[Windspeed]

It appears as if the NHC is going to wait until the center crosses Akumal to declare an official landfall. I say the southern tip of Cozumel got robbed! All jokes aside, it's been fascinating watching Beryl's structure morph with the ULL overnight.

[NorthHillsWx]

Per chasers on the ground in mainland Mexico this doesn’t sound like much of a hit at all. Haven’t seen anything yet approaching cat 2 from video or reports. I wonder if Cozumel took a harder hit while that NW eyewall was still intact, but sounds like this thing really fell apart coming in

[NorthHillsWx]

Usually when these tight core cyclones hit land while being sheared they dissipate quickly or their circulation spreads out and take a while to regenerate if they move back over water. However, the Yucatán is not exactly a hurricane killer. I will say when looking at forecasts from the NHC, the Jamaica-Caymans part was slightly too low for intensity (but consistently called for it to be near MH intensity near Jamaica) but the rest of their forecasts have been pretty spot on. They predicted a cat 1-2 Mexico LF from the start pretty much and looks like that’s what we got. Operationly they’ll keep this a cat 2 LF but I have my suspicions this was significantly weaker. Long story short- great job NHC

[msuwx]

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Per chasers on the ground in mainland Mexico this doesn’t sound like much of a hit at all. Haven’t seen anything yet approaching cat 2 from video or reports. I wonder if Cozumel took a harder hit while that NW eyewall was still intact, but sounds like this thing really fell apart coming in

Not surprising. You can usually 'subtract' a category from the intensity impacts for a weakening system. 

It will be interesting to see how this survives. I think it is going to emerge quite weak from the Yucatan since it was weakening and hit land at the 'wrong' time. Yucatan can often take quite a toll on systems. I always think of Isidore (2002)..... it lost its inner core of the Yucatan and never got it back. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 7/3/2024 at 12:39 PM, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Hmmmm....

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Scott747 said:

Quite the shift in track with the latest advisory. Across South Padre e of Port Isabel and then just s of Port Mansfield.

That is where my First Call from last night went.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The weakening at the last moment prior to landfall was expected, as the system reentered the hostile shear zone.

[hawkeye_wx]

Models are consistently showing that it will take about 36 hours over water for Beryl to reorganize.  The environment should become more favorable as Beryl slows and turns north near the Texas coast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, Windspeed said:

If shear does not abate while Beryl is over the Yucatán, the tilted vortex, deprived of high oceanic heat content to sustain updrafts, will rapidly shear off. Even with just a short amount of time, there won't be strong enough updrafts to keep the mid-level circulation driven from the low-level circulation, and they will separate. Both HAFS models simulate this well in their 0z runs. On the other hand, shear should begin to decrease as Beryl moves into the southwestern GOM. Beryl should remain a compact surface low. The better environment may allow a vortex to regenerate quickly.

Interesting...I hadn't factored the compact nature into my assessment when considering regeneration...perhaps my TX landfall intensity is conservative. Something to ponder over the weekend before taking a Final stab at it.

[NorthHillsWx]

https://x.com/icyclone/status/1809198187695231044?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g
 

[hawkeye_wx]

So Josh declined to fly to the Grenadines and missed a historic hit, but then he flew to Mexico for weakening junk?

[MJO812]

6z gfs has a south Texas hit. Further north than previous runs.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, msuwx said:

Not surprising. You can usually 'subtract' a category from the intensity impacts for a weakening system. 

It will be interesting to see how this survives. I think it is going to emerge quite weak from the Yucatan since it was weakening and hit land at the 'wrong' time. Yucatan can often take quite a toll on systems. I always think of Isidore (2002)..... it lost its inner core of the Yucatan and never got it back. 

Isidore stalled over the Yucatan, the reason it weakened so much.  After it finally came back over water, the inner core could never rebuild as the storms away from the center kept inflow from reaching the center.  But the idea of a disrupted core having issues reorganizing as the hurricane models may suggest is possible.  Coastal convergence just before landfall does seem to help Beryl intensify just before landfall.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

29 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

So Josh declined to fly to the Grenadines and missed a historic hit, but then he flew to Mexico for weakening junk?

He would have had to pick the right island and then get there before the airports closed.  Jim Edds did it, it isn't impossible, but he played the probabilities and didn't win.

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

He would have had to pick the right island and then get there before the airports closed.  Jim Edds did it, it isn't impossible, but he played the probabilities and didn't win.

I feel like going to Jamaica and catching the inner core would’ve been better than that, but he’s an eye or bust guy. The decision to not play island roulette was surprising though. This is the same guy who built a living playing island roulette in the pacific where it is much more challenging to get to and also you have far limited resources once there. I think this was a huge miss. Other chasers nailed it, I guess if it’s tough Josh just isn’t going to go anymore? 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I feel like going to Jamaica and catching the inner core would’ve been better than that, but he’s an eye or bust guy. The decision to not play island roulette was surprising though. This is the same guy who built a living playing island roulette in the pacific where it is much more challenging to get to and also you have far limited resources once there. I think this was a huge miss. Other chasers nailed it, I guess if it’s tough Josh just isn’t going to go anymore? 

Somewhere along the Laguna Madre of Texas as possibly a Cat 2 making a run at Cat 3 intensity would be a nice consolation prize.