Hurricane Beryl - Hurricane Warning - Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass Texas

[hawkeye_wx]

[40/70 Benchmark]

SST are about the same in the SW GOM as they are in the Caribbean, so we just have to see how much it slows down, as TCHP is def. significantly lower.

[Windspeed]

SST are about the same in the SW GOM as they are in the Caribbean, so we just have to see how much it slows down, as TCHP is a def. lower.

That's exactly the scenario when a TCHP map becomes critical. It's why we can have a Category 5 make landfall along GOM shoreline, where THCP maps are negligible, if the hurricane does not stall. Hence why we have Camille and Michael in the record books. The shallow shelf was above 29°C at 10 meters when those TCs crossed over it. But a slow-moving Category 4 or 5 would upwell cooler water due its own upwelling prior to landfall if it is moving too slow. Intensity hangs on forward motion in those cases. We have even seen slow-moving hurricanes like Harvey reach upper Category 4 over the shallow shelf with negligible TCHP. But it moved inland just in time before its upwelling mattered. But if you tried to forecast intensity based on THCP maps alone, without regards to the actual immediate shallow SSTs, you would always assume TCs like Dean, Gilbert, Allen, Felix, Camille, Michael, etc., etc., would all be weakening, because they crossed over a section of the TCHP map that had negligible values. Simply put, forward motion is critical.

Again, Harvey in 2017 is a great example. It continued to intensify into an upper Category 4 hurricane through landfall, right over the shallow shelf of the SE Texas coast, but moved inland before its own upwelling became an issue. The SSTs were at 30°C however. Still, if Harvey had taken longer to move inland, it may have halted its own intensification.

[MattPetrulli]

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
930 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...BERYL STRENGTHENS BACK TO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA...

Data from the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Beryl 
has strengthened to a category 3 hurricane with maximum winds of 
115 mph (185 km/h).  The aircraft data also indicated that the 
minimum pressure has fallen to 962 mb.  

The next forecast will be issued at the normally scheduled time at 
11 PM EDT (0300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 930 PM AST...0130 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 85.1W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

[hawkeye_wx]

The second recon pass found 965 mb with a dropsonde.

[cptcatz]

Impressive dropsonde from a storm that was supposed to be weakening

[WEATHER53]

7 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Beryl is forecasted only 12 hours over the Yucatán which—to begin with— historically isn’t inhospitable to tropical cyclones.  Atmospheric conditions are also tilted to favorable at that time. If core is anything like today, upon landfall, I believe odds strongly favor hurricane status vs tropical storm upon entry into the GOM. 

Could it possibly sort of “sense” that our and try to thread the open water?

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I remain on the aggressive side of things. Never expected as much weakening as the official forecast implied INVO Jamaica, either.

I’ve heard you know stuff 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

And yes, the high shallow-layer SSTs are obviously a huge reason Beryl has been able to keep its strong vortex intact. Persistent strong updrafts so far have won the battle against any mid-level dry intrusions and downdrafts. Those have occurred. But Beryl rebounds every single time. Bery has also just been, well, lucky. Very lucky. How close can a vorticity maximum at 500 hPa flirt with disaster? Beryl is now the case study. It has been on the cusp of 25+ kts of shear numerous times the past 36 hours, and yet here it is still maintaining.

TCHP at depth really doesn't matter too much right now either. It's the shallow immediate surface layer of 29-30° that is driving Beryl's vortex. Beryl's motion is way too fast at 20+ MPH for deep oceanic heat content to matter.

Doesn’t moving  fast help avoid the upwelling? 

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Big yikes

 

 

This is extremely serious. Its a developing La Nina as well. WE are all in very grim deep trouble this summer and fall, all along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts, possibly well up into the Northeast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I’ve heard you know stuff 

Depends on the season....haven't known much between December and March for a few years

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, Jebman said:

This is extremely serious. Its a developing La Nina as well. WE are all in very grim deep trouble this summer and fall, all along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts, possibly well up into the Northeast.

I get what Ryan is saying, but I’d caution against assuming all or even most other storms will be this resilient. Every system and environment is different. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Could it possibly sort of “sense” that our and try to thread the open water?

With smaller islands, like Jamaica for instance, but not a large peninsula like the Yucatan.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is my First crack at Beryl....will update late Saturday night or Sunday.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/07/hurricane-beryl-moves-away-from-jamaica.html

[WEATHER53]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Depends on the season....haven't known much between December and March for a few years

Its turmoil for all 

[GaWx]

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024

...MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL IS APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES
EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 85.5W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

————————

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024

The weakening trend of Beryl has reversed this evening.  Satellite 
images show that the eye has occasionally been evident and the 
eyewall is about two-thirds closed based on Cancun radar images and 
reports from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters.  Data from the 
reconnaissance mission indicated that Beryl has strengthened back to 
a dangerous category 3 hurricane with maximum winds of about 100 kt. 
The minimum pressure has fallen about 10 mb from this afternoon to 
964 mb.  The aircraft also indicated that Beryl remains compact, and 
it is actually a little smaller than previously estimated.

The hurricane has turned westward and slowed down slightly on the
south side of a ridge centered over the southeastern U.S., with the
latest initial motion estimated to be 275/14 kt.  Beryl is expected
to maintain that general motion during the next 12 hours, which
should cause it to make landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula very near
Tulum early Friday morning.  Most of the models show the center
remaining over land for about 18 hours, and then emerging over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night.  Around that time, Beryl
is expected to turn to the northwest and slow down some more as it
moves along the western periphery of the weakening ridge and toward
a trough over the south-central U.S.  Although the models are in
fair agreement, there is still some spread in exactly how sharp the
system turns northwestward, and to a large degree the structure and
intensity of Beryl will be a notable factor on its track over the
Gulf.  The new NHC track forecast is a little slower than the
previous one, following the trend in the latest models.

It now seems likely that Beryl will maintain its strength until it
reaches the coast.  Once the core moves inland, rapid weakening is
expected, and Beryl is forecast to fall below hurricane strength by
the time it exits the Yucatan.  Assuming the system is able to
maintain some elements of an inner core, gradual re-intensification
seems likely before it makes its final landfall in northeastern
Mexico or southern Texas.  The NHC intensity forecast again lies
near the high end of the models and continues to show Beryl becoming
a hurricane again over the western Gulf.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 19.6N  85.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 20.0N  87.5W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
 24H  06/0000Z 20.9N  89.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 36H  06/1200Z 21.9N  92.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  07/0000Z 22.9N  94.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  07/1200Z 23.8N  95.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 24.7N  96.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 26.8N  98.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
120H  10/0000Z 28.9N  99.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[40/70 Benchmark]

The decrease in foreward speed over the SW GOM may not promote that much upwelling considering the system will be much weaker...important not to lose sight of that since we are used to conceptualizing this system as a powerhouse. I think it will be speeding up again due to trough interaction closer to the coast by the time it regains hurricane strength. 

[Chinook]

Quote

The weakening trend of Beryl has reversed this evening. Satellite images show that the eye has occasionally been evident and the eyewall is about two-thirds closed based on Cancun radar images and reports from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Data from the reconnaissance mission indicated that Beryl has strengthened back to a dangerous category 3 hurricane with maximum winds of about 100 kt. The minimum pressure has fallen about 10 mb from this afternoon to 964 mb. The aircraft also indicated that Beryl remains compact, and it is actually a little smaller than previously estimated.

The recon just said 969mb as per this plot. I'm not sure if this means it has lost any max wind speeds in the last couple of hours?

 

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here is my First crack at Beryl....will update late Saturday night or Sunday.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/07/hurricane-beryl-moves-away-from-jamaica.html

40/70 so your high LF risk means places like Austin are completely out of the woods, 100 degree weather, few puffy cumulus and maybe a few 14 mph gusts, 40 percent chance of rain ? I am no forecaster but hoping that Beryl will be so weak, and so far south, that I will get to have my beloved 105 weather with a blistering Texas sun and a 5 percent chance of a stray tropical shower and 10-15 mph winds.

I would rather have an EXTREME, 25,000 YEAR DROUGHT, than have a doggone hurricane in Buda.

In other words Get that doggone tropical system the heck out of south central Texas. Its July. Its supposed to be HOT, DRY, and blistering SUN.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Jebman said:

40/70 so your high LF risk means places like Austin are completely out of the woods, 100 degree weather, few puffy cumulus and maybe a few 14 mph gusts, 40 percent chance of rain ? I am no forecaster but hoping that Beryl will be so weak, and so far south, that I will get to have my beloved 105 weather with a blistering Texas sun and a 5 percent chance of a stray tropical shower and 10-15 mph winds.

No....not my focus. Not paying attention to inland track, but I don't think this will be a Harvy-like epic flood because it should keep moving. Austin will probably see some rain...

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Track across Yucatan is just S enough it doesn't short cut any of the land.  Recon still looks much more like W than WNW, NHC 275* seems correct.

 

[Jebman]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No....not my focus. Not paying attention to inland track, but I don't think this will be a Harvy-like epic flood because it should keep moving. Austin will probably see some rain...

Okay, inland track is not your focus.

I am just concerned that this thing will pull a gigantic Brobdingnagian plume and associated tropical rain band out of the GoMex onto Buda, those tropical showers can be ferociously efficient, it dont take much to smash us with 12 inches of rain in a very short time, TC's tracking southwest of our location can do that...........

 

Anyway Benchmark, thank you very much for your analysis. You do an exemplary job!!!!

[hawkeye_wx]

The GFS has shifted northward, has the storm creeping up the Texas coast.

[Jebman]

18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The GFS has shifted northward, has the storm creeping up the Texas coast.

Okay, this could be good. Well east of us means real hot and dry and no wind!!!!! Wow man I am gonna throw a par-tay if this happens and we end up super dry and super hot! When a TC is east of us, that is what happens, we get awarded clear very hot weather with no wind. Might be downsloping effects, but hey, I am no Met.

Now just wait a cotton-pickin minute. CREEPING up the coast? I thought this system was gonnabe a pretty progressive mover? Yeah folks, I realize I am really easy to troll.......

[canderson]

This needs to swing and move up into S Texas. They need water desperately to refill empty reservoirs around SA and the western hill county. It’s pretty dire out there. 

[GaWx]

0Z globals’ W Gulf landfalls starting with northernmost: further N than 12Z runs:

-ICON: mid-TX coast ~25 miles N of 12Z run

-GFS: Corpus Christi, which is ~150 miles N of 12Z’s NE MX landfall

-UKMET: ~40 miles N of 12Z run, which places it ~40-50 miles S of the TX border

-CMC: ~25 miles N of 12Z run or ~100 miles S of the TX border

-Euro not out yet

 

[WxWatcher007]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z globals’ W Gulf landfalls starting with northernmost: further N than 12Z runs:

-ICON: mid-TX coast ~25 miles N of 12Z run

-GFS: Corpus Christi, which is ~150 miles N of 12Z’s NE MX landfall

-UKMET: ~40 miles N of 12Z run, which places it ~40-50 miles S of the TX border

-CMC: ~25 miles N of 12Z run or ~100 miles S of the TX border

-Euro not out yet

 

I know you’re looking at the 00z suite but the 18z EPS/Op were pretty significantly north (and quite strong) as well. 

[hawkeye_wx]

The pressure is up to 968 mb.

[GaWx]

47 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I know you’re looking at the 00z suite but the 18z EPS/Op were pretty significantly north (and quite strong) as well. 

It’s unanimous for the main 0Z globals. The 0Z Euro is also further N than the 12Z (by 125+ miles) and is even ~100 miles N of the 18Z! Though pretty strong, it isn’t as strong as the 18Z. Landfall is halfway between Brownsville and Corpus Christi!

 So, 3 of these 5 0Z globals are in TX.

 Anyone following the 0Z hurricane models?

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

It’s unanimous for the main 0Z globals. The 0Z Euro is also further N than the 12Z (by 175+ miles) and is even 125 miles of the 18Z! Landfall is halfway between Brownsville and Corpus Christi!

 So, 3 of these 5 0Z globals are in TX.

 Anyone following the 0Z hurricane models?

The area between Brownsville and CC was where my mind was early today. I do still think we need to see what kind of core remains after Yucatán landfall.

GFS

 

Euro

 

Spaghetti

 

Hurricane models are all north, but not to the extent of the globals. These are just landfall points, but with a NW heading if this does get further north and scrape the coast I’d really watch for frictional convergence working to help organization and possibly intensification.