Jebman Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: How much rain have you had in the last few weeks? The Tampico region has had lots of rain from Alberto and other systems recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: How much rain have you had in the last few weeks? About 16" or so ... most of it from Alberto (nearly 14") 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 Dry air is close enough to Beryl's NW that an outflow boundary is moving away from Beryl. EDIT TO ADD. Radar shows the eywall is moving onshore in the peninsula SW of Kingston/near Maypen. Kingston should have missed the eyewall. May not even get close to hurricane force winds. https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJP.html MKJP 031812Z 08023G41KT 5000 RA VCSH SCT018 BKN020CB OVC100 27/25 Q1004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 It has certainly weakened from peak, but it’s really something how resilient this has been. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It has certainly weakened from peak, but it’s really something how resilient this has been. And it may be even strengthening a bit. IR showing warming eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Sheesh, talk about a close shave. The outside of the eyewall is going to shave the small peninsula, but unless there is a jog north, the shoreline is going to miss the worst 10m winds of Beryl. Granted, there may still be higher wind gusts up on the ridges and higher elevations within the circulation. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 I can't imbed Twitter posts anymore. Coastal flooding in Jamaica, the killer will be fresh water flooding in the mountains. Hurricane force gust at airport. ob MKJP 031900Z 10042G58KT 1000 +RA VCSH SCT018 BKN020CB OVC100 26/25 Q1003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Satellite has really improved last few scans. Beryl has been a remarkable hurricane. Inner core has really reorganized again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 The Kingston webcams show that rain and wind have increased substantially the last hour for quite the stormy afternoon. Keep in mind that Kingston is 75 miles NE of the center, nowhere near the core: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=h0E93nmFO1A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 I’m sort of wondering if the core is tightening due to friction with the land nearby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Beryl still is gaining latitude. The southwest "corner" of Jamaica where the coastline is pretty much running east-west could definitely get the eyewall head-on in a couple of hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 13 minutes ago, GaWx said: The Kingston webcams show that rain and wind have increased substantially the last hour for quite the stormy afternoon. Keep in mind that Kingston is 75 miles NE of the center, nowhere near the core: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=h0E93nmFO1A I don't know how to get more than once an hour obs from Kingston, and I'm not sure if the hurricane force 58 knot gust was the highest recorded that hour. Airport, like many, is close to the ocean, gusts in the city may not be that high, but no reason to think the hills N and E of the city. EDIT I don't see a distance scale, but that runway is 2.7 km per Wiki, or the increase in elevation in short distances on the E side of the city is large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 That is a pretty stunning recovery by Beryl in satellite presentation. Not surprising, given the appearance of the core on radar currently. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Found on Twitter from this morning but once again seems relevant cause it just won’t die 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Kingston- 38 kt gusting to 70 kt (just above cat-1 strength gust) Quote MKJP 032000Z 11038G70KT 0500 +RA VCSH SCT012 BKN015CB OVC080 27/25 Q1004 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 4 hours ago, lee59 said: Kingston Jamaica live cam: https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/jamaica/surrey-county/kingston/panorama.html Nasty conditions in KIngston but so far it seems they are taking it ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 5:00 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 Location: 17.5°N 77.6°W Moving: WNW at 20 mph Min pressure: 959 mb Max sustained: 140 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 The worst of Beryl still remains just offshore. Again, hopefully, no sudden jogs to the north that would get the inside of the eyewall over the southern Jamaican shoreline, as Beryl's northern eyewall looks quite nasty. I should stress, I am referring to the 10m wind at sea level.Edit: As before, I stress that wind gusts in the higher elevations along the ridges of the Blue Mountains may still be experiencing extreme hurricane force gusts due to their altitude within the northern circulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 2 minutes ago, Windspeed said: The worst of Beryl still remains just offshore. Again, hopefully, no sudden jogs to the north that would get the inside of the eyewall over the southern Jamaican shoreline, as Beryl's northern eyewall looks quite nasty. There was a period when the eyewall was onshore (see pic), but a westward jog moved it back offshore. NHC is still saying a WNW motion, so we'll see what the next hour or two brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 The recovery in presentation over the last two hours or so on satellite is one of the most impressive I can remember. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 4 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: The recovery in presentation over the last two hours or so on satellite is one of the most impressive I can remember. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 There was a period when the eyewall was onshore (see pic), but a westward jog moved it back offshore. NHC is still saying a WNW motion, so we'll see what the next hour or two brings. Yes, the tip of the peninsula. But that is mostly a coastal reserve down to Portland Point. The closest communities of Shearer's Heights near Portland, Rocky Point, etc., may have just missed the inner periphery of the northern eyewall on that closest pass, just based on radar observation. It was definitely too close for comfort, however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 38 minutes ago, lee59 said: Nasty conditions in KIngston but so far it seems they are taking it ok. See my post about very steep terrain, several hundred meters elevation change in about a 1 km distance in the hills not far N and E of the city center. I suspect that is where many of the poor live. The gusts at 200 or 300 meters will be rough. Inland will see very heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 This is the recorded update/live stream from the NHC director, Mike Brennan. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 From NHC at 5 PM: ...EYEWALL OF BERYL BRUSHING THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS OCCURRING... ...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 77.6W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). Kingston, Jamaica, recently reported sustained winds of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 81 mph (130 km/h). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 The uplift on the mountains in the central and western part of Jamaica must be incredible right now. I know the mountains are further from the coast, but this has to have some effect on the overall circulation and structure inflow and outflow from the center to some degree. The flooding in the mountains is very likely really bad to catastrophic currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Treasure beach and surrounding areas may get hit the hardest, a big blowup of convection in that area, and some potential to take a step north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 18Z ICON: back up to ~Galveston like the 0Z had vs 12Z’s ~75 miles SW of Galveston 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Not entirely sure how the passes will take place, but the first recon of the evening has reached Beryl. Will be tricky with the northern eyewall over southern Jamaica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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