Hurricane Beryl - Hurricane Warning - Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass Texas

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

Jova for barbadoscels

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

it's so jova for those in the path if this moggercane verifies. Hopefully the TUTT/trades/shear can mog 95L

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

 

wildin

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

I asked AI to predict the peak intensity for 95L and it's not looking good, but I am too high inhib to post the full response here that states the peak intensity (they explicitly gave it). However, I can say this:

Key Factors Influencing Intensity

1. 850 mb Zonal Wind Anomaly: Indicates low-level shear due to anomalously westerly winds. This could initially challenge development but is less impactful for a well-developed system like 95L/Beryl.

2. 200 mb Zonal Wind Anomaly: Shows anomalously easterly winds aloft, which favor lower shear and promote anticyclonic flow, aiding in outflow and reducing upper-level shear.

3. Deep Layer Wind Shear: Predicted to be low along Beryl's path, which is conducive for strengthening, especially with the unusually warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs).

4. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Warm SSTs provide ample energy for intensification. Given the temperatures are above average, this will support Beryl’s strengthening.

5. 200 mb Wind Speed and Streamlines: Presence of an upper-level anticyclone (ULAC) providing favorable conditions for development.

6. Model Guidance and Intensity Projections:

   • GFDL SHiELD: Predicts significant strengthening with well-defined characteristics.
   • SHIPS Forecast: Indicates rapid intensification potential with increasing maximum wind speed.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Andy Hazelton, one of the HRD scientists developing HAFS, says the model is calibrated for existing depressions or storms and can be a bit too enthusiastic on invests.

[Windspeed]

95L's axis is only at 38°W longitude right now. The system has the bulk of the MDR remaining to continue organizing prior to land interaction in the Antilles. However, persistent pulsing CBs this evening do appear to be evolving a new MLC. This is evident in the overall cloud pattern and perhaps is allowing better alignment in closer proximity to the surface low within the wave axis, just to the canopy's NE, versus the old MLC that is down around 7-8N° latitude -- mostly devoid of convection. A new low-level vort max could form on Friday and I do think 95L has a great shot at TCG in the next 24 hours.

[Jebman]

4 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Jova for barbadoscels

Yeah that would be very CEL for Barbados, if that storm gets to be like Jova.

[Jebman]

3 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

 

wildin

Wow is that REALLY a second storm behind the first?

[Windspeed]

Latest ASCAT pass, which is now a bit behind the last few hours of most recent satellite images in this animation.

[WxWatcher007]

Not directed at anyone—say this every year but this is the annual reminder to be cautious when looking at any of the spaghetti/hurricane models before there’s a true well-defined LLC. Errors can be particularly high and just propagate through a model forecast. Ensembles are the way to go for now. 
 

 

[Windspeed]

Not directed at anyone—say this every year but this is the annual reminder to be cautious when looking at any of the spaghetti/hurricane models before there’s a true well-defined LLC. Errors can be particularly high and just propagate through a model forecast. Ensembles are the way to go for now. 
 
 

But the ensembles don't have a pretty simulated IR map of a Category 4 to hype out!

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

8 hours ago, Jebman said:

Yeah that would be very CEL for Barbados, if that storm gets to be like Jova.

*it would be very brutal for barbadoscels if that storm gets to be like Jova (cel is a suffix)

Jova is also alternate lingo for “over”

I hope 95L doesn’t become like Jova though

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

8 hours ago, Jebman said:

Wow is that REALLY a second storm behind the first?

Looks like it ngl

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not directed at anyone—say this every year but this is the annual reminder to be cautious when looking at any of the spaghetti/hurricane models before there’s a true well-defined LLC. Errors can be particularly high and just propagate through a model forecast. Ensembles are the way to go for now. 
 

 

No problem!

[WxWatcher007]

 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Mogged by tutt

over for 95l if this verifies

[Retrobuc]

I read earlier in the week about a large saharan dust layer, which usually makes development difficult.  Why is that not the case here?

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

19 minutes ago, Retrobuc said:

I read earlier in the week about a large saharan dust layer, which usually makes development difficult.  Why is that not the case here?

Conditions are just mogger for june

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

GET READY BHAIS

BERYL IS ABOUT TO MOG

 

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A low pressure system located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the 
Windward Islands is becoming better defined and the associated 
showers and thunderstorms are increasing in organization. If these 
trends continue, a tropical depression will likely form later today. 
This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and 
approach the Windward Islands by the end of the weekend, and 
Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches could be required for portions 
of that region tonight or early Saturday. For more information, 
including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

[WxWatcher007]

22 minutes ago, Retrobuc said:

I read earlier in the week about a large saharan dust layer, which usually makes development difficult.  Why is that not the case here?

A few reasons imo

1) the wave is situated pretty far south, and as a result it’s embedded in a much more moist environment 

2) Although there is a significant amount of SAL, it has mostly passed the worst of it. This combined with favorable CCKW passage makes it easier for rising motion and convection across the basin. This is a key part in the anomalously favorable MDR pattern. 

 

3) There isn’t enough shear and a northerly shear vector to impart the dry air into the system. 

 

As a result, the environment looks good to excellent for development and maybe even quick intensification eventually, but as you can also see from the images above, there are some potential challenges ahead too. 

1 minute ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

GET READY BHAIS

BERYL IS ABOUT TO MOG

 

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A low pressure system located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the 
Windward Islands is becoming better defined and the associated 
showers and thunderstorms are increasing in organization. If these 
trends continue, a tropical depression will likely form later today. 
This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and 
approach the Windward Islands by the end of the weekend, and 
Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches could be required for portions 
of that region tonight or early Saturday. For more information, 
including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

The NHC telegraphing possible hurricane watches soon is a big deal. 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

A few reasons imo

1) the wave is situated pretty far south, and as a result it’s embedded in a much more moist environment 

2) Although there is a significant amount of SAL, it has mostly passed the worst of it. This combined with favorable CCKW passage makes it easier for rising motion and convection across the basin. This is a key part in the anomalously favorable MDR pattern. 

 

3) There isn’t enough shear and a northerly shear vector to impart the dry air into the system. 

 

As a result, the environment looks good to excellent for development and maybe even quick intensification eventually, but as you can also see from the images above, there are some potential challenges ahead too. 

The NHC telegraphing possible hurricane watches soon is a big deal. 

It’s so jova if they put up hurricane watches in the first advisory 

[tiger_deF]

Still a little displaced, but it’s go time

[WxWatcher007]

Really good microwave pass

 

[GaWx]

Does anyone have a feel for the risk to Jamaica for July 3rd? Relatives of mine have a cruise going there then and I haven’t had any time to look at progs. TIA

[Scott747]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Does anyone have a feel for the risk to Jamaica for July 3rd? Relatives of mine have a cruise going there then and I haven’t had any time to look at progs. TIA

First forecast should be out in about an hour. Either way at a minimum the swells will make the ride a bit bumpy. Compact nature may mitigate it somewhat.

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

A few reasons imo

1) the wave is situated pretty far south, and as a result it’s embedded in a much more moist environment 

2) Although there is a significant amount of SAL, it has mostly passed the worst of it. This combined with favorable CCKW passage makes it easier for rising motion and convection across the basin. This is a key part in the anomalously favorable MDR pattern. 

 

3) There isn’t enough shear and a northerly shear vector to impart the dry air into the system. 

 

As a result, the environment looks good to excellent for development and maybe even quick intensification eventually, but as you can also see from the images above, there are some potential challenges ahead too. 

The NHC telegraphing possible hurricane watches soon is a big deal. 

This *could* be serious, soon.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Tropical Tidbits has it as TD #2.

 

AL, 02, 2024062818, , BEST, 0, 90N, 410W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWO, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008, TRANSITIONED, alA52024 to al022024

[Windspeed]

Tropical Tidbits has it as TD #2.

TAFB AL, 02, 2024062818, , BEST, 0, 90N, 410W, 30, 1007, TD

The first forecast package is coming out at 5PM AST.

[tiger_deF]

Looking better by the hour

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

70 
WTNT42 KNHC 282033
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
500 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024

The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring over the
central tropical Atlantic has developed sufficiently organized deep
convection in bands around the center.  In addition, visible
satellite images show that the circulation has tightened, and the
center now appears well-defined.  Thus, a tropical depression has
formed, and the initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the
latest Dvorak classifications.  Development this far east in late
June is unusual, in fact, there have only been a few storms in
history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical
Atlantic this early in the year.

The depression is moving westward at 15 kt.  A strong subtropical
ridge to the north of the system should keep it moving relatively
quickly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days.
The system might gain a little more latitude toward the end of the
forecast period when it nears a weakness in the subtropical ridge.
There is a fair amount of spread in the model guidance, especially
in the day 3-5 time frame, due to differences in the strength of the
ridge and the aforementioned weakness. The NHC track forecast lies
near the consensus aids and is slightly south of the middle of the
guidance envelope.  Based on this forecast, the system is expected
to move across the Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday and
track across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the
middle of next week.

Typically, the atmospheric environment is unfavorable for
intensification in this portion of the Atlantic basin in late June.
However, the overall atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear
conducive for steady strengthening during the next few days.
Accordingly, the official forecast calls for strengthening and shows
the depression becoming a tropical storm tonight or early Saturday
and then a hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. It
should be noted that some of the model guidance is quite aggressive
and a fair amount are higher than the official forecast.  For
example, the hurricane regional models show the system becoming a
major hurricane and the GFS model shows the system deepening below
970 mb prior to reaching the Windward Islands.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Two is expected to strengthen and be a
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or
Monday, bringing a risk of heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds,
and dangerous storm surge and waves.

2. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for
portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands later tonight
or early Saturday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this system.  Users are reminded that there is large
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific
details of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z  9.1N  41.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z  9.4N  44.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 10.1N  48.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 10.7N  51.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 11.3N  54.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  01/0600Z 12.0N  58.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 13.0N  61.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 15.5N  69.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 17.5N  76.4W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi