GaWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 12Z GFS: landfall shifts S to ~100 miles S of TX/MX border vs close to or N of border on prior runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 12z UKMET: landfall shifted ~50 miles N of its 0z run to ~midway between Tampico and TX border HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 75.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.07.2024 0 17.0N 75.0W 960 101 0000UTC 04.07.2024 12 17.9N 78.8W 985 65 1200UTC 04.07.2024 24 18.2N 82.6W 996 46 0000UTC 05.07.2024 36 18.7N 85.6W 996 46 1200UTC 05.07.2024 48 19.4N 88.1W 998 38 0000UTC 06.07.2024 60 20.0N 91.2W 999 47 1200UTC 06.07.2024 72 21.1N 93.3W 1000 44 0000UTC 07.07.2024 84 22.2N 95.1W 998 39 1200UTC 07.07.2024 96 23.3N 96.6W 992 44 0000UTC 08.07.2024 108 24.1N 97.9W 993 46 1200UTC 08.07.2024 120 24.4N 99.3W 998 29 0000UTC 09.07.2024 132 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 12 hours ago, Jebman said: 180 mph surface winds estimates. I hope that we dont end up with a 180 mph hurricane. Isnt 165 mph bad enough? I sure hope that this anomalous hurricane stays the heck OUT of the GoMex! Those waters are VERY warm! So do I tbh i just hope beryl just dissipates at this point this is too bad for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 12Z CMC: very slightly further N than prior run but still 100 miles S of MX/TX border So for 12Z runs CMC, GFS, and UKMET landfalls pretty close in NE MX. ICON still further N but not as far N as prior runs with it ~75 miles S of Galveston. Euro will be out next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 You can see the CDO is now very much displaced from the CoC, which is now towards the eastern edge of the CDO. Shear is having a major impact. I find it interesting that NHC is unsure what shear will be in 24 hours, with ECMWF increasing shear and GFS decreasing shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 26 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z GFS: landfall shifts S to ~100 miles S of TX/MX border vs close to or N of border on prior runs I think the models have started to hone in on a final landfall. The ICON has not been supported by the other globals and the HWRF has not been supported by the other high res hurricane models. Landfall in Texas seems unlikely, the issue now is the impact of the storm in South Texas, and the intensity of the second landfall in Mexico. The GFS shows heaviest rains just missing South Texas. GFS also develops something later (96L?) with a more impactful rainfall event in STX. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 4 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I think the models have started to hone in on a final landfall. The ICON has not been supported by the other globals and the HWRF has not been supported by the other high res hurricane models. Landfall in Texas seems unlikely, the issue now is the impact of the storm in South Texas, and the intensity of the second landfall in Mexico. The GFS shows heaviest rains just missing South Texas. GFS also develops something later (96L?) with a more impactful rainfall event in STX. Still way too early to make calls like this. Landfall is 5+ days out 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 5 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I think the models have started to hone in on a final landfall. The ICON has not been supported by the other globals and the HWRF has not been supported by the other high res hurricane models. Landfall in Texas seems unlikely, the issue now is the impact of the storm in South Texas, and the intensity of the second landfall in Mexico. The GFS shows heaviest rains just missing South Texas. GFS also develops something later (96L?) with a more impactful rainfall event in STX. I have never really liked HWRF since it came out. Always preferred GFDL but that’s no longer run. Don’t know what a good hurricane model is anymore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 The low level winds causing the shear more so than what the TUTT which is being pushed out of the way doesn't look weaker ahead of Beryl. The usual slowing of the winds enough to add low level convergence doesn't seem like it will help Beryl, or continued weakening until landfall in the Yucatan seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 2 minutes ago, Chargers09 said: Still way too early to make calls like this. Landfall is 5+ days out I'm not ruling out wobbles and landfall very near the Rio Bravo del Norte or even N of the Rio Grande. NHC track has shifted by small degrees the last few advisories. I see the historical error cone to Matagorda Bay, which would bring significant surge and rain impacts to Houston/Galveston. But ignoring the ICON and the HWRF, models have been consistent with only small corrections the last few cycles. BTW, 2-4 feet above normal produces flooding that covers the main barrier island roads in Galveston and Brazoria counties. There has already been one such event this season from a uch weaker system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 13 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: I have never really liked HWRF since it came out. Always preferred GFDL but that’s no longer run. Don’t know what a good hurricane model is anymore. I have the same about the GFDL. I never kept notes on it, but it seemed like it outperformed the HWRF and HMON. Andy Hazelton, who works with the HAFS w/ NHC's research division, has been noting 'his' models have generally been performing well since introduced. And they should continue. They are even going to introduce ocean-atmosphere coupling, the model would see upwelling under a slow moving storm. It may have already neem introduced, in fact. EDIT TO ADD: If 960 mb is accurate, the weakening is accelerating now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 The pocket of 35-40kt shear quickly abated the environment ahead of Beryl. That high pressure to Beryls south is starting to once again build overtop of Beryl. Shear values overall are much lower than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 8 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: The pocket of 35-40kt shear quickly abated the environment ahead of Beryl. That high pressure to Beryls south is starting to once again build overtop of Beryl. Shear values overall are much lower than forecasted. The 30 knot low level flow is imparting enough shear around 300 mb to be introducing dry air, despite what the shear produced at 250 mb or 200 mb. Forecast valid in 2 hours. Not one GFS ensemble doesn't weaken Beryl significantly before the Yucatan, and the core is now disrupted enough looking at satellite that further weakening seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Euro is a bit north, between the Canadian and Ukmet, and a little south of the GFS...they are relatively tightly clustered. The main difference is that the GFS forages into S TX, the CMC rides the border, but the Euro and Ukmet stay on a WNW course farther inland into MX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ABOUT TO SPREAD INTO JAMAICA AS THE EYE OF BERYL APPROACHES... ...EYE OF BERYL EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 76.9W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 looks like the N eyewall may clip the southern coast of the island? will be a close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 21 minutes ago, wxmx said: I will say that the center is definitely close enough for the circulation center to be disrupted by the high mountains of Jamaica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 3 minutes ago, dan11295 said: looks like the N eyewall may clip the southern coast of the island? will be a close call. Yes, it appears that way. Look for the worst from this storm to move in shortly and last for several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 9 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I will say that the center is definitely close enough for the circulation center to be disrupted by the high mountains of Jamaica. The highest mountains of Jamaica (~7000ft) are on the eastern end, and Beryl's core is already past them. The southern coast is not that rugged, and the highest elevations are closer to 3000ft 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 17 minutes ago, wxmx said: The higher mountains of Jamaica (~7000ft) are on the eastern end, and Beryl's core is already past them. The southern coast is not that rugged, and the highest elevations are closer to 3000ft Beryl is moving so damn fast nothing but a catastrophic Texas LF is ever gonna weaken it. It will LF and probably take its sweet time weakening. This thing has got a truly Brobdingnagian number of tricks up its sleeve. It is the Steven Seagal of storms and it has a superior attitude! Its kickin all our asses and its got Buda Texas in its sights. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 5 minutes ago, wxmx said: The highest mountains of Jamaica (~7000ft) are on the eastern end, and Beryl's core is already past them. The southern coast is not that rugged, and the highest elevations are closer to 3000ft It seems possible to me Jamaica might have actually helped slow down the weakening. Deeper convection appeared on the N side which might have been convergence aided. Trying to wrap around the entire eye or remnant eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Some exorbitant rainfall amounts are modeled by the Ukmet and Euro close to my backyard (up to 30-40"). The CMC and GFS are closer to 10-12", which are still very high. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 4 minutes ago, Jebman said: Beryl is moving so damn fast nothing but a catastrophic Texas LF is ever gonna weaken it. It will LF and probably take its sweet time weakening. This thing has got a truly Brobdingnagian number of tricks up its sleeve. I'm trusting NHC forecast of weakening before the Yucatan. Supported by ensembles and the hurricane models. Cat 2 is no picnic, but they aren't uncommon in the Yucatan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 1 minute ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: It seems possible to me Jamaica might have actually helped slow down the weakening. Deeper convection appeared on the N side which might have been convergence aided. Trying to wrap around the entire eye or remnant eye. That crossed my mind, as a matter of fact. Right now very deep convection is trying to wrap around the eye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 1 minute ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: It seems possible to me Jamaica might have actually helped slow down the weakening. Deeper convection appeared on the N side which might have been convergence aided. Trying to wrap around the entire eye or remnant eye. Have seen this rodeo a lot in recent years. Hurricane approaches land and friction tightens up the core. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 3 minutes ago, wxmx said: Some exorbitant rainfall amounts are modeled by the Ukmet and Euro close to my backyard (up to 30-40"). The CMC and GFS are closer to 10-12", which are still very high. How much rain have you had in the last few weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Yep was gonna say those mountains definitely did something because the core looks savage right now on radar and IR. Started happening right as it approached the island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Based on radar motion barring a sudden W-SW jog southern Jamaica coast is going get into the N eyewall and be in for a rough time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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