Floydbuster Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Recon still showing a solid Cat 4. Definitely battling shear on satellite though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 31 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Interesting exchange between Hazelton and Webb. RE: Beryl's intensity in the NW Caribbean will have big influences on track evolution in the GOM. A stronger hurricane may help cut-off the TUTT faster, leading to an ULL that may retrograde faster over the GOM. This would have two impacts: 1) ventilate Beryl versus shear it and 2) allow Beryl to slip towards the weakness. Again, obviously, that scenario requires a stronger hurricane prior to Yucatan interaction, and Beryl could be significantly degraded there instead; however, it bears close watch of modeling trends with a focus on the upper levels. Yea, agree...intensity will determine alot, which is why I hedge US threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 0Z Euro: back S similar to 12Z to just N of Tampico; similar to 0Z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 HAFS A & B into NE Mexico. I assume the low level recon and high level sonde drops benefited the runs significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 GFS was looking like a possible Texas impact even if landfall occurs in mexico; track turns NNW near coast and only a small jog east in point of recurvature would lead to a central TX coastal landfall. As it stands I would interpret GFS as a direct hit on Brownsville region (forward quadrant still over Gulf) and a significant event for Corpus Christi and San Antonio. Also by GFS 5-7 day standards it is quite a robust looking 'cane after a brief downgrade after Yucatan. It could easily be cat 3-4 in western Gulf. Just speculative at this point and of course GFS far from infallible. Gilbert on a similar track deepened below 900 mbs at one point, IIRC, but was in prime season (mid-Sep). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 One thing I always read into these tropical threads is that when they get super slow like this, it is an eminently excellent thing - because the storm is weakening, and people's interest is lagging. Therefore, Mexico and the Texas Coasts are that much safer. Shear and plenty of dry air must be sluggin' it out with Beryl, and Jamaicans will catch a break, thank goodness. Beryl must be totally exhausted by now. Even anomalous storms must take a break! Look, I can always keep dreaming, and I can keep on hoping ----- Right to the bitter end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 One thing I always read into these tropical threads is that when they get super slow like this, it is an eminently excellent thing - because the storm is weakening, and people's interest is lagging. Therefore, Mexico and the Texas Coasts are that much safer. Shear and plenty of dry air must be sluggin' it out with Beryl, and Jamaicans will catch a break, thank goodness. Beryl must be totally exhausted by now. Even anomalous storms must take a break! Look, I can always keep dreaming, and I can keep on hoping ----- Right to the bitter end.It's 6AM-3AM depending on where you are, stateside. That's why it's quiet. It even got slow in here yesterday morning... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Bizarre looking, never seen such a sheared looking hurricane with such a healthy looking core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 10 minutes ago, Windspeed said: It's 6AM-3AM depending on where you are, stateside. That's why it's quiet. It even got slow in here yesterday morning... That and we have been in a lengthy recon drought without any reliable radar sources, it's pretty much been see what GOES-16 says for the past while. Still Beryl has shown some signs she is mortal and that bears some limited good for Jamaica however hellish it will still be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 That core is still ripping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 It is going to be a razor thin margin either way for Jamaica. Is there a public radar site there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Still impressive dropsonde on the northern eyewall. Jamaica is in for it as it looks like it will get hit with that northern side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: That core is still ripping I think the poster who made the point about the rapid speed of movement over exceptional TCHP countering the hostile mid level envt. nailed it....not to mention how pristinely developed that core was upon encountering the more hostile conditions is why its perservering so well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Beryl's eye is just starting to come into range from the radar site in Pilon, Cuba. The returns from the northern eyewall reveal it looks as it should given this morning's most recent recon data. Beryl is still an intense hurricane for now, despite moderate shear. There is still time for weakening prior to impacts on Jamaica, but the window is closing. Hopefully, the northern eyewall can miss to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Good news for Jamaica on the 8am track, it keeps the center well of shore, would probably only push hurricane force winds to the coast and Kingston may have dodged a bullet from a wind/surge perspective. Still, the island will bear the brunt of the heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 32 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Good news for Jamaica on the 8am track, it keeps the center well of shore, would probably only push hurricane force winds to the coast and Kingston may have dodged a bullet from a wind/surge perspective. Still, the island will bear the brunt of the heavy rain I was going to say, appears core is offshore so that’s good for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Recon shows a steady state storm. Just wow for July. If this does indeed reintensify in the GOM we’re talking getting into September-like ACE numbers for the basin, from a single storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 The only negative if the core misses Jamaica is how does a stronger storm 24 hours from now (due to limited land interaction) affect us down the road. Today will be the most shear the storm experiences. Models had been seeing that + land interaction with Jamaica and interpreting serious weakening. If you marginalize the impact from Jamaica, we will have a stronger base-state storm before the Yucatán. Does this mean a more northerly track possibly extending time over the GOM? Lots to be resolved post-Jamaican impact today but something to take note of 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 06Z HWRF takes Beryl into relatively remote regions of the Quintana Roo coast, near the Belize border, but everything north of there is still very much in play. For our 1st anniversary in 2022 my wife and I spent a few days at a resort in Puerto Morelos, a little town south of Cancun/due north of Cozumel island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: The only negative if the core misses Jamaica is how does a stronger storm 24 hours from now (due to limited land interaction) affect us down the road. Today will be the most shear the storm experiences. Models had been seeing that + land interaction with Jamaica and interpreting serious weakening. If you marginalize the impact from Jamaica, we will have a stronger base-state storm before the Yucatán. Does this mean a more northerly track possibly extending time over the GOM? Lots to be resolved post-Jamaican impact today but something to take note of Yeah, it's very much a pick your poison situation. A near miss for Jamaica would likely translate to worse impacts for the Yucatan. And a stronger storm is more likely to skirt northward between the eastern US ridge and central US trough, increasing the odds of US impacts. The west/weak and north/strong spread is pretty evident on the 12z models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the poster who made the point about the rapid speed of movement over exceptional TCHP countering the hostile mid level envt. nailed it....not to mention how pristinely developed that core was upon encountering the more hostile conditions is why its perservering so well. Yep, it’s been traveling over more heat content than most classic storms from the past. Throw that in with rapid movement and relatively small size and there is almost no up welling cooler water temps. It’s hard to up well when your 28c therm is 1000 meters deep. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS JAMAICA WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... ...EYE OF BERYL EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 76.1W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 76.1 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion should continue through today, followed by a turn more toward the west tonight or Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will pass near or over Jamaica during the next several hours. After that, the center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday and move over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night or early Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Westerly shear is having an effect on Beryl this morning, as the eye has all but disappeared in satellite imagery and the cloud pattern has become ragged and elongated from southwest to northeast. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has risen to near 954 mb. However, the Air Force plane measured flight-level winds of 139 kt at 700 mb, while the NOAA plane measured 138-kt winds at 750 mb. These winds support surface winds of 120-125 kt, and based on this the initial intensity is held at 125 kt. The initial motion is now 285/16. A strong mid-level ridge centered over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next couple of days or so. The motion should bring the center near or just south of Jamaica during the next 6-12 h and south of the Cayman Islands tonight. After that, the system should reach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in 36-48 h and emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by 60 h. Once over the Gulf, there remains a sizable amount of spread in the track guidance, with the GFS and HWRF showing a more northerly motion toward the Texas coast while the ECMWF and UKMET show a more westerly motion toward the coast of Mexico. This part of the track forecast lies near the consensus models in the middle of the guidance envelope, and overall there are no significant changes to the forecast from the previous advisory. While there is some disagreement in how much shear Beryl will encounter before reaching Yucatan, the intensity guidance expects enough shear that it agrees on steady weakening. The official forecast follows this and is at the high end of the guidance envelope. Beryl should weaken more while over Yucatan, then slowly re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico in a somewhat more favorable environment. The intensity forecast again calls for the cyclone to regain hurricane strength before it reaches the western Gulf coast, followed by weakening after landfall. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 17.1N 76.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 17.8N 78.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 18.5N 82.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 19.0N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 19.7N 88.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 60H 06/0000Z 20.5N 90.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/1200Z 21.5N 92.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 23.5N 96.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 25.5N 98.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 I’ll say this- I do not think Beryl has THAT much time as a major left. Its satellite presentation has degraded significantly and regardless of impact with Jamaica, its circulation will be disrupted. NHC discussion sounds like it’s on borrowed time at current intensity as is. We have been saying this for 24 hours but now, a marked weakening trend is imminent. This was such a mature and robust circulation with extremely high oceanic heat and instability that it was able to maintain but dry air will eventually slow that down and allow the shear to weaken it. Very resilient storm but it’s starting to show cracks this morning 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 12Z ICON: Significant shift SW in W Gulf with landfall 75 miles SW of Galveston instead of upper TX or near LA border like on prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Intense connection in the northern eyewalk. Eye is trying to popup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: It is going to be a razor thin margin either way for Jamaica. Is there a public radar site there? My understanding is the Jamaica radar has been broken for some time. It may get into range of Cuban radars. http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Kingston Jamaica live cam: https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/jamaica/surrey-county/kingston/panorama.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Latest VDM Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 15:58ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306Storm Name: BerylStorm Number & Year: 02 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 14Observation Number: 29 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 15:12:40ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.03N 76.10WB. Center Fix Location: 83 statute miles (133 km) to the SE (146°) from Kingston, Jamaica.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,752m (9,029ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 956mb (28.23 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 115° at 8kts (From the ESE at 9mph)F. Eye Character: Open in the southwestG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 107kts (123.1mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the W (271°) of center fix at 15:10:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 27° at 102kts (From the NNE at 117.4mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the WNW (283°) of center fix at 15:09:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 100kts (115.1mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the ESE (119°) of center fix at 15:15:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 206° at 106kts (From the SSW at 122.0mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ESE/SE (124°) of center fix at 15:16:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 130kts (~ 149.6mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (45°) from the flight level center at 13:52:00Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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