40/70 Benchmark Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 1 minute ago, Amped said: Yeah probably comes off Jamaica a cat 1 or strong TS. Hurricane models showing a pretty messy structure near the Yucatan. I'll take the over unless shear begins to have a much greater impact....the island itself won't do that, especially considering speed of movement. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll take the over unless shear begins to have a much greater impact....the island itself won't do that, especially considering speed of movement. My guess based on the past is a drop of one category from where it is when it first encounters the island. But it could subsequently gain that category back soon after passing it by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: My guess based on the past is a drop of one category from where it is when it first encounters the island. If it crosses dead-center, then that is possible.....but its not going from a 3 or 4 to a TS. It would to be a confluence of factors in addition to the island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The effect will be negligible, which is why Gilbert resumed intensification immediately....that would not have happened had the core been significantly disrupted. Especially if it is moving as fast as it is right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 10 or 15 miles will make a big difference in the outcome for Kingston. 18z tracks are pretty close to a direct hit. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 The cruise with close relatives of mine on it that amazingly had Jamaica as a stop tomorrow (no not a hurricane chasing ship lol) had already canceled that stop two days ago since that was a no brainer. But they did end up going to Grand Cayman today. They left there a couple of hours ago and are headed NW to the GOM. Looking at the map of ships, I’m surprised to see another cruise ship only 100 miles NW of Jamaica this close in time to the storm. But it is hauling butt to the NW at 25 mph. See it below (dark blue arrow) along with the circular area with no ships where Beryl is: 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 1 hour ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: 180 mph surface winds estimates. I hope that we dont end up with a 180 mph hurricane. Isnt 165 mph bad enough? I sure hope that this anomalous hurricane stays the heck OUT of the GoMex! Those waters are VERY warm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Satellite appearance has degraded quite a bit over the last few hours. Eye has almost filled in completely. Hopefully we wake up to a Category 3 in the morning 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 1 minute ago, jrips27 said: Satellite appearance has degraded quite a bit over the last few hours. Eye has almost filled in completely. Hopefully we wake up to a Category 3 in the morning Yeah definitely showing signs of being affected by shear. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 The larger eye is completely covered by high cirrus right now. But the cloudtops are not warming. Perhaps the flow above 200 hPa is blowing over top of the eye from the SW, but so far, it looks like the core is overcoming the upper level environment with a vengeance.. OHC is very high here. Diurnal influences and strong convection are winning the night for Beryl at present. If anything, the CDO has expanded from the SW quadrant. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 IDK...that ring of lightning around the eye doesn't scream "weakening" to me....though I'm sure it's not rapidly deepening, either given sat. appearance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 31 minutes ago, jrips27 said: Satellite appearance has degraded quite a bit over the last few hours. Eye has almost filled in completely. Hopefully we wake up to a Category 3 in the morning wrong 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 People who are saying this is weakening must not understand what they are looking at. I get that shear was suppose to upend this but we have to look at what’s happening in real time. It ain’t weakening. Now admittedly it ain’t pretty, has a very odd structure but it’s obviously still very intense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 30 minutes ago, Windspeed said: The larger eye is completely covered by high cirrus right now. But the cloudtops are not warming. Perhaps the flow above 200 hPa is blowing over top of the eye from the SW, but so far, it looks like the core is overcoming the upper level environment with a vengeance.. OHC is very high here. Diurnal influences and strong convection are winning the night for Beryl at present. If anything, the CDO has expanded from the SW quadrant. Drop 16 from Gonzo earlier, you would be correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 wronglol thanks for that analysis? I didn’t say the storm was weakening quickly, just that the presentation has degraded. Clearly still a very serious storm about to impact Jamaica . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 I'm thinking that appendage to the NW is from the light upper level shear.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 2 minutes ago, jrips27 said: lol thanks for that analysis? I didn’t say the storm was weakening quickly, just that the presentation has degraded. Clearly still a very serious storm about to impact Jamaica . Using the Tropical Tidbits loop w/ lat and long, it has moved due W just N of 16*N for four hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 GFS a smidge further N and a smidge stronger, now final landfall at ~975 mb right on the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo del Norte. Canadian is just a bit S of the GFS and somewhat weaker. Waiting on the GFS ensembles but the general idea Tampico to Corpus Christi, with NHC official forecast being supported, is standing if ICON is ignored, and I have never seen an NHC or NWS disco reference the German model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Looks like the eye is trying to clear again, last couple times it tried and failed, so we’ll see if it succeeds this time. One big difference I’m seeing on satellite since earlier today is there are evident gravity waves again; haven’t seen those in over 24 hours since sheer started affecting Beryl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Any historians know if there has been a Cat-5 equivalent in ANY basin on July 1st of ANY year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 58 minutes ago, Chinook said: Any historians know if there has been a Cat-5 equivalent in ANY basin on July 1st of ANY year? 1980 had the earliest Cat 5 for a while when Allen reached it on August 5. That season had 9 Hurricanes, 2 MH. 2005 then did it in July, when Emily did it on July 16. That season had 28 NS, 15, Hurr, 8 MH. Camille did it in mid-August 1969. That season had 18 named storms, 12 Hurricanes, 3 MH. Dean: August 18, 2007. 15 named storms, 6 Hurricanes, 2 MH. Not really any other examples before late August. Andrew was next, Aug 23-24, 1992. Those were the earliest examples in the Atlantic. I'm surprised there aren't more. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 18Z HAFS-A is interesting...shows Beryl getting sheared (with help from Jamaica land interaction) to almost a naked swirl by FH036...only to rapidly put itself back together again before the Yucatan. 18Z HWRF is slightly less weenie fuel than the 12Z, but still keeps Beryl a formidable hurricane at closest approach to Jamaica, at landfall in the Yucatan, and on approach to Texas at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Last update prior to a potential First Call on Friday. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/07/devastating-hurricane-beryl-poised-to.html 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 0Z UKMET is similar to 12Z run. Final landfall little N of Tampico/slightly N of 12Z landfall: use for track, not the very underdone strength HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 71.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 03.07.2024 0 16.2N 71.6W 969 91 1200UTC 03.07.2024 12 16.6N 75.4W 980 73 0000UTC 04.07.2024 24 17.9N 78.6W 989 57 1200UTC 04.07.2024 36 18.2N 82.7W 995 47 0000UTC 05.07.2024 48 18.6N 86.0W 996 45 1200UTC 05.07.2024 60 19.3N 88.6W 1000 32 0000UTC 06.07.2024 72 20.0N 91.9W 1000 39 1200UTC 06.07.2024 84 20.8N 93.8W 1001 37 0000UTC 07.07.2024 96 21.7N 95.4W 1000 38 1200UTC 07.07.2024 108 22.8N 96.8W 996 41 0000UTC 08.07.2024 120 23.6N 98.3W 997 39 1200UTC 08.07.2024 132 23.4N 100.7W 1006 26 0000UTC 09.07.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 37 minutes ago, jrips27 said: lol thanks for that analysis? I didn’t say the storm was weakening quickly, just that the presentation has degraded. Clearly still a very serious storm about to impact Jamaica . Not much to say other than to post the infrared loop. Still images can be deceiving, an animated loop is more precise. As we can see, when Beryls appearance looks ragged, Beryl explodes in the next frame. Beryl does not show any significant signs of weakening. That deep convection upshear in the north eyewall with a recent spike of lightning activity says otherwise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 pressure seems normal. light rain. what's to worry about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 The overall trend on satellite loops has been a degrading. I will say, recon isn't showing rising pressure yet. Edit: Recon doesn't suggest weakening at all, so far. But the satellite has been degrading. I'm confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Interesting exchange between Hazelton and Webb. RE: Beryl's intensity in the NW Caribbean will have big influences on track evolution in the GOM. A stronger hurricane may help cut-off the TUTT faster, leading to an ULL that may retrograde faster over the GOM. This would have two impacts: 1) ventilate Beryl versus shear it and 2) allow Beryl to slip towards the weakness. Again, obviously, that scenario requires a stronger hurricane prior to Yucatan interaction, and Beryl could be significantly degraded there instead; however, it bears close watch of modeling trends with a focus on the upper levels. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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