Floydbuster Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I agree. FL winds are still big time. Beryl actually doesn't look that bad, all things considered. It wasn't gonna be the Cat 5 beast it was leaving the Windwards, but it looks large enough to where its battling the shear well, so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 The northern quadrant is definitely still packing. Wouldn't want to downgrade despite the ragged satellite appearance with such in situ data support of a high-end Category 4. Though one would expect the satellite appearance to improve if the new northern eyewall band is that strong. Satellite can be deceiving sometimes versus actual core structure. Some of the cloudfill in the eye may simply be high cirrus and not indicative of weaker convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Very impressive NW eyewall dropsonde 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 looks like a bit of a westward wobble/jog in the last few frames, hard to tell if the bend back more W than WNW has started, Jamaica is hoping yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Yikes. That looks a heck of a lot better than earlier today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 6 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Beryl actually doesn't look that bad, all things considered. It wasn't gonna be the Cat 5 beast it was leaving the Windwards, but it looks large enough to where its battling the shear well, so far. 4 minutes ago, Windspeed said: The northern quadrant is definitely still packing. Wouldn't want to downgrade despite the ragged satellite appearance with such in situ data support of a high-end Category 4. Though one would expect the satellite appearance to improve if the new northern eyewall band is that strong. Satellite can be deceiving sometimes versus actual core structure. Some of the cloudfill in the eye may simply be high cirrus and not indicative of weaker convection. It’s fascinating, but probably shouldn’t be surprising, that Beryl is coming off its peak slowly. I think the prior ERC helped it become a lot more inertially stable than it would’ve been with a smaller core. The resilience is just a sight to behold. Look at these microwave passes and note how quickly the core rebounds after earlier degradation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Like clockwork, watch the intense CBs and overall CDO structure rapidly improving on satellite. That was perfect timing for recon. It looks like Beryl is back on the upswing. Perhaps the EWRC had already completed, and the core is taking off again... 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 There is still time for Beryl to weaken significantly due to the shear (remember, it is still July despite this unusual occurrence), but I am beginning to doubt the models that showed this thing falling apart to a tropical storm by the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan. I think we now need to know as the possibility that Beryl may be a more serious hurricane in the Western Gulf of Mexico than we have entertained the last couple of days. https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1808285217377210879 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 This is going to be Jamaica's Maria, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 1 minute ago, Tezeta said: This is going to be Jamaica's Maria, huh? Oh I don't think that, at all. But the way the models dismissed Beryl as being a tropical storm near Jamaica is hogwash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 I’ve seen enough. The TUTT isn’t shredding this thing. The major shear axis has already been pushed to over and just west of Jamaica. All the TUTT did apparently was piss it off. Best we can hope for is steady state from now and a miss south of jamaica 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Just now, Floydbuster said: Oh I don't think that, at all. But the way the models dismissed Beryl as being a tropical storm near Jamaica is hogwash. I think the storms are pretty equivalent. Jamaica might get more of a brush than PR did, however. Not much time for it to falter, and it looks to be getting ready to rip hard again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Unfortunately for Jamaica, when looking at analogous tracks with a solid speed of movement from the E or ESE at/near Jamaica, I’m kind of discouraged. These storms, 1951’s Charlie, 1974’s Carmen, 1988’s Gilbert, 2001’s Iris, 2004’s Charley and Ivan, 2005’s Dennis and Emily, and Dean of 2007 either only weakened slightly, were steady, or strengthened on the way to Jamaica. So, these analogs have been suggesting that Beryl should remain a MH til impact with or a slight miss of Jamaica. Evidently, it is probably going to be too far S of Hispaniola for its mtns to disrupt it significantly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 22 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Like clockwork, watch the intense CBs and overall CDO structure rapidly improving on satellite. That was perfect timing for recon. It looks like Beryl is back on the upswing. Perhaps the EWRC had already completed, and the core is taking off again... It is improving, right in time for Jamaica. However, I have hopes for these people because the construction of these structures in that part of the world is much better than in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 16 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: There is still time for Beryl to weaken significantly due to the shear (remember, it is still July despite this unusual occurrence), but I am beginning to doubt the models that showed this thing falling apart to a tropical storm by the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan. I think we now need to know as the possibility that Beryl may be a more serious hurricane in the Western Gulf of Mexico than we have entertained the last couple of days. https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1808285217377210879 Models are showing a pretty good probability of a NE Mex LF. Hopefully we can get this storm to weaken some before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 The chance for Beryl to end up in the group of worst storms to affect Jamaica since 1950 is unfortunately increasing. Those worst storms are Dean (2007), Ivan (2004), Gilbert (1988), and Charlie (1951). Dean and Ivan missed a little to the S while Gilbert and Charlie went right over it lengthwise. All 4 were MHs at/near Jamaica. Gilbert appears to have been the worst though I’m not sure as they were all bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Welp. Running out of time for Jamaica to avoid a major storm. Only way this isn’t a bad impact is a few more westward jogs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 NOAA had some interesting drone footage posted a few hours ago. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Does anyone have the link that that shaded super ensemble product? TIA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Usually when you see this signature, ten hours later you have a 180 mph monster. Wild wild storm 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Does anyone have the link that that shaded super ensemble product? TIA... http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/ 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 This thing is an ACE monster. Will be up to around 20 ACE after the next advisory, making up over 95% of the season’s total so far (and up to August 20th in terms of climatology) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 No doubt in my mind the degraded look Beryl had for much to the day was more due to a ERC and now that it looks complete she’s looking better and better. Such an unpredictable and fascinating storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 The high Jamaican mtns will almost certainly disrupt and weaken Beryl at least while over it or passing it. How much and for how long is the big question. It has mtns over 7K feet high in the E portion! Almost before Gilbert left the island, it started to rapidly strengthen. Then that storm became a monster. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 That oceanic heat content hasn’t been disturbed in a few years: add that to the fast movement and it’s just heat heat heat. Being able to overcome normal factors….. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 15 minutes ago, GaWx said: The high Jamaican mtns will almost certainly disrupt and weaken Beryl at least while over it or passing it. How much and for how long is the big question. It has mtns over 7K feet high in the E portion! Almost before Gilbert left the island, it started to rapidly strengthen. Then that storm became a monster. The effect will be negligible, which is why Gilbert resumed intensification immediately....that would not have happened had the core been significantly disrupted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 33 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: NOAA had some interesting drone footage posted a few hours ago. That makes me seasick just watching it, yikes. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That oceanic heat content hasn’t been disturbed in a few years: add that to the fast movement and it’s just heat heat heat. Being able to overcome noal factors….. These are great points....hadn't thought of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 15 minutes ago, GaWx said: The high Jamaican mtns will almost certainly disrupt and weaken Beryl at least while over it or passing it. How much and for how long is the big question. It has mtns over 7K feet high in the E portion! Almost before Gilbert left the island, it started to rapidly strengthen. Then that storm became a monster. Yeah probably comes off Jamaica a cat 1 or strong TS. Hurricane models showing a pretty messy structure near the Yucatan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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