Hurricane Beryl - Hurricane Warning - Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass Texas

[wxmx]

Hurricane models 12z
HWRF: Stronger, solid cat 3 at Yucatan LF
HFS-A, HFS-B: Closer to each other, Tamaulipas LF. GOM looks conducive for strengthening. Cat 2 LF
HMON: Weaker, status quo during the GOM trek, Tamaulipas LF

[olafminesaw]

Euro drops up to 10" of rain in a 6 hr period. Considering globals tend to under estimate both localized higher totals as well as terrain enhancement, could definitely be some serious flooding/ mudslides. A big mitigating factor is the very quick forward motion. Most of the rain falls in 6-8 hours.

[Kevin Reilly]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Euro drops up to 10" of rain in a 6 hr period. Considering globals tend to under estimate both localized higher totals as well as terrain enhancement, could definitely be some serious flooding/ mudslides. A big mitigating factor is the very quick forward motion. Most of the rain falls in 6-8 hours.

Probably double that at least with upsloping over the mountains of Jamaica with a strong flow around the hurricane the lift will be insane especially if it slows down at all. 

[GaWx]

 12Z summary of the main/least inaccurate globals:

1) Euro and UKMET very similar in the vicinity of Tampico on S end

2) ICON TX/LA border on N end

3) in between are CMC halfway between Tampico and the TX border and the GFS at MX/TX border

[wxmx]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 12Z:

1) Euro and UKMET very similar in the vicinity of Tampico on S end

2) ICON TX/LA border on N end

3) in between are CMC halfway between Tampico and the TX border and the GFS at MX/TX border

4) Hurricane models relatively tightly clustered halfway between Tampico and the TX border.

Overall, consensus might be a tad south than 0z/06z, but not by much, mainly driven by the UKMET flip flop. Intensity wise, most models show a stronger Beryl, and hinting the GOM may have a somewhat conducive environment.

[KChuck]

14 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

Storms like this make me question whether the “rules” of tropical meteorology might be changing before our eyes.
 

And I’m basing this question on how important precedent seems in our understanding of the science, which, admittedly, could be totally off base because IANAM.

IMHO... Keep in mind that models are built on past statistical analysis plus tweaking. If rules behind the current storms change, then the rules behind past analysis and current models can be thrown out the window. No???

[NorthHillsWx]

I had grown so used to looking at perfection when viewing satellite of this storm that it’s current 155 mph state looks like trash, lol

[Hotair]

The video trickling out of Union Island shows utter and complete destruction. 
 

https://x.com/royalelily/status/1807921322267160602

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, Hotair said:

The video trickling out of Union Island shows utter and complete destruction. 
 

https://x.com/royalelily/status/1807921322267160602

Union island seems to be ground zero. Hope loss of life is minimal but the picture is what you’d expect from a high end 4 slamming full speed into a tiny island - catastrophic damage 

[Normandy]

That’s impressive damage.  Those tiny islands have more resistant structures than our coastal communities do in the US  

[GaWx]

 The ICON has some company at 12Z as the JMA (I know, not at all one of the better models) has Beryl hit Galveston. Also, the NAVGEM (I know it is probably an even worse model in general) has a hit at mid-TX coast. So, both of these are very much in the fwiw category.

[Jebman]

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Reupping my favorite (tropical) decapitation of all time. 
 

 

Here's to hoping that Beryl will get Chris'd.

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, wxmx said:

4) Hurricane models relatively tightly clustered halfway between Tampico and the TX border.

Overall, consensus might be a tad south than 0z/06z, but not by much, mainly driven by the UKMET flip flop. Intensity wise, most models show a stronger Beryl, and hinting the GOM may have a somewhat conducive environment.

Take all the model tracks, just pick the middle. That would likely be NE Mex.

[Hotair]

29 minutes ago, Normandy said:

That’s impressive damage.  Those tiny islands have more resistant structures than our coastal communities do in the US  

Yes. News is that a primary school just recently built to the latest code standards was also flattened. 

[NeffsvilleWx]

1 hour ago, KChuck said:

IMHO... Keep in mind that models are built on past statistical analysis plus tweaking. If rules behind the current storms change, then the rules behind past analysis and current models can be thrown out the window. No???

Yeah that’s kind of what I was getting at.

IF that is occurring, there’s going to be a lot of unexpected behavior (globally) that certainly won’t make preserving life and assets any easier. In fact, depending on rate of change, I could even see accuracy degrading. Of course, it’s all a big IF. I’m not educated enough on the subject to know.

[gymengineer]

1 hour ago, wxmx said:

Hurricane models 12z
HWRF: Stronger, solid cat 3 at Yucatan LF
HFS-A, HFS-B: Closer to each other, Tamaulipas LF. GOM looks conducive for strengthening. Cat 2 LF
HMON: Weaker, status quo during the GOM trek, Tamaulipas LF

This 12Z HWRF run is just the worst case scenario intensity-wise for the rest of Beryl's time. Slams into Jamaica as a Cat 4. After that Cozumel and Yucatan LF, the end of the run has an expanding Cat 3 Beryl headed toward the Texas coast.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Euro drops up to 10" of rain in a 6 hr period. Considering globals tend to under estimate both localized higher totals as well as terrain enhancement, could definitely be some serious flooding/ mudslides. A big mitigating factor is the very quick forward motion. Most of the rain falls in 6-8 hours.

I don't know if it was here, or not, the weakness that splits the ridge that could allow a NW turn toward N. Tamps./STX would also mean weaker steering.  Some IMBY or close enough IMBY has me concerned somewhere will have a longer period of TC rains.  Motion should be fast enough not for very prolonged rainfalls in Jamaica, just the "normal" excessive rainfall from a TC passing S enhanced by mountainous terrain.  Slower motion could be an issue for rain by Yucatan, and I think very possibly the final landfall of whatever Beryl is post shear and land and whatever conditions are in the GOMEX.

[BooneWX]

For kicks, the HWRF satellite depiction is an absolute truck tire annular hurricane in the gulf. It’d be quite the satellite presentation.

[WxWatcher007]

39 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Here's to hoping that Beryl will get Chris'd.

It should weaken, but it won’t be anywhere close to what happened to Chris. 

[Random Chaos]

1 hour ago, KChuck said:

IMHO... Keep in mind that models are built on past statistical analysis plus tweaking. If rules behind the current storms change, then the rules behind past analysis and current models can be thrown out the window. No???

Most modern models are not built on statistical analysis unlike a lot of models 20 years ago. Most models today are fluid dynamic models that attempt to simulate the atmosphere. Errors are due to limited and erroneous data ingested (which is why you often see NOAA missions dropping dropsondes in front of hurricanes), granularity of the model (models grid the planet and each "pixel" is modeled at depth), and simplifications of the fluid dynamic equations to allow modern supercomputers to produce a result in a reasonable length of time (this is a big part of why you see discrepancies between models). Global models are typically worse at hurricanes due to lower granularity resulting in the core pressure being unable to be modeled accurately; this error tends to be amplified in deeper, stronger hurricanes. Hurricane models are typically lagged by 6 hours because they are typically based off a 6 hour earlier global model (also why you need to wait 12 hours after formation of a tropical storm before you can trust model output).

[WxWatcher007]

18z spaghetti models shifted back south, reiterating just how tricky this Gulf forecast is going to be. 

[g0ldl10n]

14 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

For kicks, the HWRF satellite depiction is an absolute truck tire annular hurricane in the gulf. It’d be quite the satellite presentation.

I noticed that too on the HWRF run - HAFS-A isn't far off from that same look, interestingly. 

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

18z spaghetti models shifted back south, reiterating just how tricky this Gulf forecast is going to be. 

Based on 12Z runs I assume since 18Z runs not out yet. Those maps have a lag. Biggest S shift of 12Zs was UKMET I believe.

[wxmx]

3 minutes ago, g0ldl10n said:

I noticed that too on the HWRF run - HAFS-A isn't far off from that same look, interestingly. 

There's the scenario of a dirty EWRC, where the increase of shear and land interaction prevents a clean one, and also increments the size of the storm , as it spreads out the TS winds. Something like Ike, but in a smaller scale.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

Storms like this make me question whether the “rules” of tropical meteorology might be changing before our eyes.
 

And I’m basing this question on how important precedent seems in our understanding of the science, which, admittedly, could be totally off base because IANAM.

For the Atlantic absolutely. What I think we need to start considering is the NPAC where waters have always been warmer. Hence the many intense super typhoons over the years. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Absolute utter devastation. This looks more like tornado damage. Just wow

[NorthHillsWx]

Might be saying goodbye to beryls eye. Feels like saying goodbye to an old friend 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I don't know if it was here, or not, the weakness that splits the ridge that could allow a NW turn toward N. Tamps./STX would also mean weaker steering.  Some IMBY or close enough IMBY has me concerned somewhere will have a longer period of TC rains.  Motion should be fast enough not for very prolonged rainfalls in Jamaica, just the "normal" excessive rainfall from a TC passing S enhanced by mountainous terrain.  Slower motion could be an issue for rain by Yucatan, and I think very possibly the final landfall of whatever Beryl is post shear and land and whatever conditions are in the GOMEX.

Euro shows the slow final approach I thought might happen, the weakness not turning Beryl much buit weaker steering flow and a slower moving rain maker.  Euro ensembles have enogh spread to know there is more than normal sensitivity to small changes than normal.

[GaWx]

5PM NHC: 

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

...EYE OF BERYL MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO
JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 70.8W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Weakening is forecast during the next day 
or two.  However, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major 
hurricane intensity while it passes near Jamaica on Wednesday and 
the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night. Additional weakening is 
expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane 
in the northwestern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

[GaWx]

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

The cloud pattern of Beryl has become a little less organized since 
the last reconnaissance aircraft left the storm near 17Z.  While 
the eyewall cloud tops have cooled, the eye has become ragged 
and less distinct inside the central dense overcast, and the 
overall cloud pattern is becoming elongated due to shear.  
Objective intensity estimates suggest that the hurricane has 
weakened a little in the past few hours, but the advisory intensity 
will be held at 135 kt until the arrival of the next aircraft 
missions near 00Z.

The initial motion is a quick 290/19 kt.  A strong subtropical
ridge centered over the southern United States will continue to
steer Beryl west-northwestward to westward across the central and
northwestern Caribbean for the next few days, and this motion
should bring the center near Jamaica in about 24 h, near the Cayman 
Islands in about 36 h, and near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico 
around 60-72 h.  After that, there remains a significant spread in 
the track guidance when Beryl emerges into the southwestern Gulf of 
Mexico, due mainly to model differences in the strength and 
location of a break in the subtropical ridge over the southern 
United States.  The GFS shows a more northerly motion during this 
time, while the ECMWF and UKMET forecast a more westerly motion.  
This part of forecast track lies between these extremes near the 
consensus models and has a higher than normal amount of uncertainty.

The intensity forecast also continues to be uncertain.  The models 
are in good agreement that Beryl should steadily weaken during the 
next 60 h due to shear and dry air entrainment, but the models 
show a slower rate of weakening than previously.  Based on this, 
the new intensity forecast calls for Beryl to still be a major 
hurricane when it passes near Jamaica, at or near major hurricane 
strength when it passes the Cayman Islands, and still be a 
hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula.  This part of the 
forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. There 
remains considerable spread in the intensity guidance when Beryl 
emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, although there is somewhat better 
agreement that the cyclone  will intensify some while crossing the 
Gulf.  The new forecast follows this trend and lies near the middle 
of the spread-out intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 15.9N  70.8W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 16.7N  73.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 17.7N  77.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 18.5N  80.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 19.1N  83.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  05/0600Z 19.7N  87.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 20.7N  89.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 96H  06/1800Z 22.5N  94.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  07/1800Z 24.5N  97.5W   60 KT  70 MPH