cptcatz Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Could be some catastrophic storm surge in Jamaica. Doesn't matter if it weakens at all at this point. The wall of water this thing is pushing on its north side is going to be massive. Absolute worst case scenario if Jamaica gets the north side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Looks like cloud tops warming a bit on the western side. I know we thought this earlier, but likely has peaked.The CDO in the western semicircle has periodically warmed. A sign that Beryl has peaked whether by influences of southwesterly shear or perhaps some structural changes are in progress. Either way, Beryl remains intense. The eye appears to be decreasing in diameter as well. Perhaps an outer band is finally taking over.Note the cloud pattern in the southern periphery of the eye. That is very typical of an inner eye fluctuating versus a strengthening outer band. Suspicious-looking that perhaps an EWRC has finally commenced. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Posted in the wrong thread lol but here’s my morning analysis. 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Regardless of the peak, Beryl is on borrowed time as a category five hurricane. There’s unanimous agreement that it begins to run into a ribbon of shear later today that will start to erode its vertical alignment and open it to intrusions of dry air. The question is the degree of weakening, which is critical for Jamaica in particular, which may receive a direct hit. Here are the four most reliable intensity models tomorrow at 15z as Beryl approaches. After Jamaica, there is substantial uncertainty that only grows over time over the fate of Beryl. The models all continue to weaken Beryl as it enters the western Caribbean. The track has trended north, and into the Yucatán late week. From there, it gets really tricky. Is Beryl weak enough to die over this region? Is it stronger than anticipated after Jamaica, leading to a reduced bend westward? How does the troughing in the Midwest influence a weakness that would trigger a more northwestward bend in the Gulf? What does the environment for reorganization and intensification look like in the Gulf? All unanswered questions at this time. As it heads into the Gulf, there’s tremendous spread. Be wary of the specific model means, as the western/southern solutions kind of lead to an unrepresentative mean in the later stages of the runs. However, there has been a clear trend north imo in the last 24 hours which means folks in Texas need to watch closely as well. Note how the Euro has two camps: one that follows the 00z operational and keeps Beryl weak and south, and another the more closely follows the hurricane models above. The “super ensemble” is still favored south into Mexico, but it’s north compared to yesterday. Basically—there’s still a lot of spread here both in intensity and track. Folks in the Yucatán and western Gulf need to keep watching this one. Finally, this is made very clear by these two runs of the Euro! 00z and new 06z sees substantial flip flopping continue over the intensity of Beryl as it approaches the Yucatán. Long way to go with this one. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 This is a few hours old. Beryl has likely peaked already and is probably starting an EWRC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Can’t see much, but it’s there… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 I know we normally say an ERC means higher impact, but with increasing shear it could be a saving grace for Jamaica. Sometimes hurricanes can unravel mighty quick if an ERC occurs in a sheared environment 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 2.5 hour old microwave pass, storm looks incredible: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: Could be some catastrophic storm surge in Jamaica. Doesn't matter if it weakens at all at this point. The wall of water this thing is pushing on its north side is going to be massive. Absolute worst case scenario if Jamaica gets the north side. Catastrophic for where, though? Take a look at Google Maps for Jamaica. There doesn’t seem to be many places that would be significantly impacted by a surge from an E to W moving storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Catastrophic for where, though? Take a look at Google Maps for Jamaica. There doesn’t seem to be many places that would be significantly impacted by a surge from an E to W moving storm. Port Royal/ Kingston could take a really rough hit from storm surge I would imagine, especially if the center tracks near or just south. Shape of the topography would only hurt in this scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 14 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Catastrophic for where, though? Take a look at Google Maps for Jamaica. There doesn’t seem to be many places that would be significantly impacted by a surge from an E to W moving storm. I would think the hurricane would funnel water into the Kingston harbor, but I'm not seeing much historically to support this possibility. Dean took a similar track/ intensity and I'm not seeing any record of significant surge. It may be protected by coral reefs and is sheltered by a barrier island so that may be why. And as you say a storm track parallel to the coast is going to push less water than more of a 90 degree angle (not sure if I have that right, someone more knowledgeable can correct me) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 14 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Catastrophic for where, though? Take a look at Google Maps for Jamaica. There doesn’t seem to be many places that would be significantly impacted by a surge from an E to W moving storm. Not sure what you're talking about. The low lying areas of Kingston are incredibly surge prone to this exact track. If the north side of the storm passes over Kingston, it will pile up the water right into this bay. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 31 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Not sure what you're talking about. The low lying areas of Kingston are incredibly surge prone to this exact track. If the north side of the storm passes over Kingston, it will pile up the water right into this bay. It would be limited by the barrier island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: I know we normally say an ERC means higher impact, but with increasing shear it could be a saving grace for Jamaica. Sometimes hurricanes can unravel mighty quick if an ERC occurs in a sheared environment I would say looking at the shear ahead and the movement at a brisk 23 mph even at the Category 5 strength that Beryl has been at it will weaken fairly rapidly. Liken it to blowing a candle out. How quickly or slowly will certainly determine the impacts to both Jamica and the very vulnerable Grand Cayman. All interests in Jamica, Grand Cayman, and Play Del Carmen along with both Cozumel and Cancún in Mexico (all these areas big vacation and cruise areas) along with the Western Gulf Coast Mexico up to Louisiana need to monitor the future movements of Beryl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Reupping my favorite (tropical) decapitation of all time. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Seeing intensity forecasts ranging from cat 4 to 50 knots is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: I would think the hurricane would funnel water into the Kingston harbor, but I'm not seeing much historically to support this possibility. Dean took a similar track/ intensity and I'm not seeing any record of significant surge. It may be protected by coral reefs and is sheltered by a barrier island so that may be why. And as you say a storm track parallel to the coast is going to push less water than more of a 90 degree angle (not sure if I have that right, someone more knowledgeable can correct me) The NHC is forecasting for Jamaica as much as 5-8 feet surge “in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast”. That was raised from 4-6 ft in the prior advisory. They are forecasting highest winds of 140 mph while approaching from ESE of Jamaica and then weakening to 120 mph when it is nearest to W Jamaica. So, it is saying solid cat 3 hit on Jamaica. These 6 MH since 1903 had analogous WNW tracks on approach to Jamaica and thus should give a good hint of what will likely occur since these moved either just S of or right over Jamaica: 1) MHs that moved WNW just S of Jamaica: Dean (2007) Ivan (2004) 2) MHs that moved WNW right over Jamaica: Gilbert (1988) Charlie (1951) Storm #4 (1944) Storm #2 (1903) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 My 0.02- I’m going with climo + shear winning out. Beryl hasn’t surprised to this point, maybe a higher peak than what we thought to be possible, but it was apparent days out there would be few mitigating factors. It didn’t explosively strengthen in the face of a poor or questionable environment, it maxed out in a very conducive environment. That environment is running out. It faces high shear from a TUTT. It faces possible trough/dry air interactions. It will have land interaction with Jamaica. I think Jamaica is in trouble bc it is so close and so strong, but beyond that, its current strength has no bearing. I’d lean heavily on a cat 2-3 strike on Jamaica followed by a rapidly weakening storm into the Yucatán. In the gulf, shear could decrease, but there might be dry air issues (normal after a trough passes especially this early). There’s a reason some models essentially evaporate the system. Long story short- while you should never let your guard down with an active system in the gulf, Beryl has more mitigating factors going against it than anything that could help reintensify the system from this point through to the end of its life. Perhaps the synoptic setup changes as we get down the road for the gulf but I’m leaning with climo and what we know right now as for expected environment. NHC is smart to keep this a H moving into Yucatán and I have no issue with their forecast. I just know it will be weakening at that point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 As for surge- the Caribbean is very deep around the islands and so it limits water build up. It’s not like the gulf or Atlantic seaboard north of Florida. High surge is always localized to specific land features such as bays and river mouths and much more localized. While looking at Kingston, it does at face value look surge prone but there are some caveats: 1) the reef outside likely breaks up waves that limit the “driving” surge we get on the gulf coast 2) it would take a storm that brought the right front quad onshore directly over that bay to push water in, as described by the above poster. A side swipe or a storm passing to the south will not cause major water build up 3) though this isn’t a small storm, at least for now its core isn’t crazy large. If it does LF in Jamaica, there will be surge issues, but it will be limited to the right front quad. Due to aforementioned deep water surrounding the island, you won’t get the massive water buildup before the storm arrives you’d otherwise expect While Surge is certainly a serious threat, I don’t think catastrophic will happen due to the above reasons. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 12z GFS is more robust, with a blunted level of weakening before Jamaica impacts and the Yucatán, and much more intensification relative to 06z in the Gulf before landfall Sunday. North trend continues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 12Z UKMET: useful for track (not for strength): Compared to 12Z: 1) a touch S of 0Z run at Jamaica 2) 75 miles further S at Yucatan but still N of Belize border 3) much further S back to near Tampico like yesterdays runs vs today’s 0Z into TX GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.07.2024 HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 67.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 02.07.2024 0 15.0N 67.6W 951 110 0000UTC 03.07.2024 12 16.1N 71.7W 979 81 1200UTC 03.07.2024 24 16.9N 75.4W 990 63 0000UTC 04.07.2024 36 17.8N 79.0W 995 54 1200UTC 04.07.2024 48 18.4N 82.8W 999 45 0000UTC 05.07.2024 60 18.6N 86.2W 999 43 1200UTC 05.07.2024 72 19.3N 88.5W 1003 33 0000UTC 06.07.2024 84 19.8N 91.7W 1001 36 1200UTC 06.07.2024 96 20.5N 93.8W 1003 35 0000UTC 07.07.2024 108 21.3N 95.4W 1000 40 1200UTC 07.07.2024 120 22.2N 96.8W 999 39 0000UTC 08.07.2024 132 23.4N 98.2W 1000 38 1200UTC 08.07.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 One would hope 5 days out models would be more consistent. Mentioned on Storm 2K, when an ensemble mean bends sharply right at the end, it is mostly because the S members are running into the rough terrain inland Mexico and being destroyed, so only the members still at sea, mostly right of track are driving the mean. It doesn't mean the consensus of the ensembles is a sudden turn towards TX/LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 16 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z UKMET: useful for track (not for strength): Compared to 12Z: 1) a touch S of 0Z run at Jamaica 2) 75 miles further S at Yucatan but still N of Belize border 3) much further S back to near Tampico like yesterdays runs vs today’s 0Z into TX GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.07.2024 HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 67.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 02.07.2024 0 15.0N 67.6W 951 110 0000UTC 03.07.2024 12 16.1N 71.7W 979 81 1200UTC 03.07.2024 24 16.9N 75.4W 990 63 0000UTC 04.07.2024 36 17.8N 79.0W 995 54 1200UTC 04.07.2024 48 18.4N 82.8W 999 45 0000UTC 05.07.2024 60 18.6N 86.2W 999 43 1200UTC 05.07.2024 72 19.3N 88.5W 1003 33 0000UTC 06.07.2024 84 19.8N 91.7W 1001 36 1200UTC 06.07.2024 96 20.5N 93.8W 1003 35 0000UTC 07.07.2024 108 21.3N 95.4W 1000 40 1200UTC 07.07.2024 120 22.2N 96.8W 999 39 0000UTC 08.07.2024 132 23.4N 98.2W 1000 38 1200UTC 08.07.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING I think the changes broadly on the guidance in the last 24 hours are significant, but the run to run variations should give everyone pause on future intensity and track. This is still a lot of spread for the Gulf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Unreal that Beryl maintains Cat 5 intensity. Shear and dry air impacting Beryl but new convection is firing upshear and into dry air. Beryl is doing Beryl things, very impressive and unprecedented for Atlantic Basin hurricanes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 3 deaths confirmed from the grenadines so far. Seems like Union island may have taken the worst hit as it never got into the eye. Per the report I read, 90% of the homes were destroyed with every building on the island sustaining damage. Comms are obviously limited and word of mouth can be inaccurate but word getting out is not sounding good so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 12z Hurricane models (HWRF, HMON, HAFS A & B) have adjusted a bit stronger with the close approach to Jamaica tomorrow. Somewhat more mixed signal for the Yucatan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallis Rockwell Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Beryl has over-performed expectation at every given chance. I wouldn't be surprised if Beryl came into the gulf as a major hurricane, if it were to take a northern track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 12Z Euro: 1) slightly further S than prior 3 runs at Jamaica with it barely offshore, which would normally be a terrible track for Jamaica 2) crosses Yucatan just N of Belize border, which is slightly S of 6Z/0Z runs 3) landfalls just N of Tampico, which is similar to 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Storms like this make me question whether the “rules” of tropical meteorology might be changing before our eyes. And I’m basing this question on how important precedent seems in our understanding of the science, which, admittedly, could be totally off base because IANAM. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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