Windspeed Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 I have a more theory based question I’d love to hear some expert opinions on. So we know that the positioning of upper level features can help or hinder a hurricane. These effects are based on the movement of upper level air masses on their periphery, which can induce mid-level shear which either ventilates the storm or tears it apart. My question is, beyond core disruption, does the kinetic energy of these masses of air and their circulations interacting with one another provide any energy to the system, or is that not meaningful given the scale of force present in the core?Depends on the level and strength of the flow versus the steering layer and the storm structure. Strong wind flow above 300 hPa level can ventilate a core versus any shear hindrance if the steering motion is similar. If the upper flow is below that, it may tilt the vortex column negatively. Likewise, opposing upper level flow against storm motion, even above 300 hPa level will affect the core negatively to the point the vortex will be disrupted. We have seen trough-influenced hurricanes embedded within shear intensify rapidly regardless of vortex tilt due to mass divergence aloft and ventilation overcoming shear. In Beryl's case, it will face opposing upper level flow versus its steering flow at some point tomorrow into the middle of the week. We would assume a weakening trend, but Beryl is a well-developed TC. Perhaps it can counter that somewhat; though most likely, it will not. At least climatology says it will not. We'll just have to see how the TUTT evolves and then how any resulting ULL that may form out ahead of Beryl evolves. If it closes off at a further distance from the TC, it may lessen shear and enhance ventilation. However, if that ULL is too close or the TUTT is placed over Beryl, most likely, the hurricane will weaken significantly. Furthermore, if the TUTTs flow is too deep into the mid levels (500-400 hPa), it most certainly will disrupt the core faster. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Recon suggestive of a solid 5 now. I suspect NHC upgrades with special statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Calling attention to both Lowry’s analysis and the TDR data. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 the first 'cane of the season growing to a Cat 5 in absolutely absurd, unprecedented fashion is an ominous start for sure 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 We were most likely too close to the 11PM AST advisory package for the need of a special update. But I do anticipate an upgrade to at least 160 now in the advisory, perhaps even 165, as that would be supported by recon data conservatively. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Just now, pazzo83 said: the first 'cane of the season growing to a Cat 5 in absolutely absurd, unprecedented fashion is an ominous start for sure First hurricane, on July 1, in this part of the basin. It’s already extraordinary but that feat would be astonishingly impressive. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 The shear is patiently holding off until 3 minutes after the upgrade. Edit: It's official now, 160mph at 11pm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Beryl is now the first category five hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. 11:00 PM AST Mon Jul 1Location: 13.8°N 64.9°WMoving: WNW at 22 mphMin pressure: 938 mbMax sustained: 160 mph 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 160 mph. Cat.5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 My god 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Gaining nice latitude creating some separation from the dry air source region in South America too… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 2 minutes ago, Tezeta said: Gaining nice latitude creating some separation from the dry air source region in South America too… always seems like the real monster ones either seek out or create their own favorable environments 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Major hurricane through Kingston and the south coast of Jamaica? Oof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 There’s no doubt in my mind the extreme strength of Beryl is adjusting the long range track. Unprecedented start to a possible unprecedented season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 The diurnal cycle gave this storm what it needed to get across the cat 5 line 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Good thread with an excellent cross section on Beryl's structure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 27.50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 12 minutes ago, Tezeta said: Major hurricane through Kingston and the south coast of Jamaica? Oof. Right front quadrant of a Cat 5 hurricane may impact eastern Jamaica. Hopefully not though. Why hasn't Windspeed been red-tagged as a full-on Meteorologist? Get Windspeed a red tag NOW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 It is now moving at 22 mph! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 6 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Good thread with an excellent cross section on Beryl's structure. I mean what can be said. That’s absurd lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Was the last major hurricane to landfall in Jamaica Gilbert? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 3 minutes ago, Nibor said: Was the last major hurricane to landfall in Jamaica Gilbert? Ivan. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 6 minutes ago, andyhb said: Ivan. Did Ivan technically landfall? Time has made it fuzzy for me but I thought it sort of paralleled the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 10 minutes ago, Nibor said: Was the last major hurricane to landfall in Jamaica Gilbert? i think so... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Pressure still dropping. Recon just had a pass with an extrapolated 934.9mb. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Video on Beryl https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uQrABvISuM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Down to ~936mb per dropsonde Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 30 minutes ago, jrips27 said: 145 kts = 171 mph. Look, I dont want this. I never, EVER want to see a hurricane like this for real, but could this thing reach 200 mph? I know this is a super anomalous season with above norm SSTs, but that would be beyond ridiculous. In early July. In the ECARIB, for gollys sakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 27 minutes ago, Tezeta said: Did Ivan technically landfall? Time has made it fuzzy for me but I thought it sort of paralleled the coast Nevermind yes, looked like it stayed barely off the coast. Otherwise it probably would've been another Gilbert for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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