Hurricane Beryl - Hurricane Warning - Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass Texas

[Random Chaos]

29 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Beryl does have strong banding that will inevitably lead to another EWRC or at least a merger. There are still CBs ongoing; the core appearance remains healthy, but there may also be a double eyewall structure in the eastern semicircle. Need recon or an MW scan, but overall, Beryl still looks like a high-end TC. Anxious for the next recon pass to see what is under the hood.

Definitely waiting to see if recon finds a double wind maximum. Anyone know what’s up with SFMR on the bird that’s flying into Beryl right now? Most readings are 0, except those that are rain flagged.

[WxWatcher007]

937.3mb extrapolated on that pass 

139kt, 149kt, 151kt FL readings

[shaggy]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

937.3mb extrapolated on that pass 

139kt, 149kt, 151kt FL readings

My bet this was a cat 5 after the islands and may still be now

[NorthHillsWx]

It peaked a couple hours ago but it’s very close to a 5 now

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It peaked a couple hours ago but it’s very close to a 5 now

I would’ve expected higher SFMR in that NE quadrant given the FL winds, but no dice. I feel like we say we wish we had recon during a number of peaks since 2017.

Not shot at recon of course, they have schedules and protocols to follow. 

[gymengineer]

[gymengineer]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I would’ve expected higher SFMR in that NE quadrant given the FL winds, but no dice. I feel like we say we wish we had recon during a number of peaks since 2017.

Not shot at recon of course, they have schedules and protocols to follow. 

Are you also seeing a lot of missing SFMR values, though, from that NE eye pass? (The SFMR values in the SW quadrant were higher than what I can find from the NE.)

[Windspeed]

The central pressure given the background environment and the flight level wind reduction alone would support a 160 mph hurricane if the NHC chose to upgrade. That being said, it appears something is off with the SFMR instrument.

[cptcatz]

Impressive dropsonde. Not sure I remember seeing a 170 knot gust in quite a while. 

[gymengineer]

Eye dropsonde suggests 938 mb. 

[hawkeye_wx]

NHC officially says 938 mb, 155 mph.

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Eye dropsonde suggests 938 mb. 

 

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

NHC officially says 938 mb, 155 mph.

8:00 PM AST Mon Jul 1
Location: 13.4°N 64.0°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 938 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph

[gymengineer]

8 pm: 155 mph

My guess is, if they never operationally go to 160 mph, Beryl will be a post season upgrade in the same style as Michael and Ian. 

[Windspeed]

NHC officially says 938 mb, 155 mph.

Ooof. Well, there will be several more passes on this mission. Oh well, hurricane records are just for us nerds. Beryl remains an insane beast for July 1st regardless.

[Amped]

8 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The central pressure given the background environment and the flight level wind reduction alone would support a 160 mph hurricane if the NHC chose to upgrade. That being said, it appears something is off with the SFMR instrument.

It is dropping out intermittently might have missed the max.

[Radtechwxman]

2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

NHC officially says 938 mb, 155 mph.

I think would have been different story if they had flown a mission hours ago. I think they might have just missed the peak of Beryl. Regardless still an absolute monster for July. 

[Windspeed]

That dropsonde was impressive. 21°C down to 700 hPa. Also, regardless of any structural evolution, the vortex message shows a well-stacked core. There does not appear any negligible tilt from 850 hPa up. So for now, at least, Beryl is not much impeded by the continued moderate mid-level easterly flow. Of course, its swift forward motion from the steering layer is helping that. Westerly upper level flow and impactful shear may begin to increase on Tuesday. Beryl's size and organization may be able to battle against that somewhat if shear doesn't get too strong.

[Amped]

9 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

I think would have been different story if they had flown a mission hours ago. I think they might have just missed the peak of Beryl. Regardless still an absolute monster for July. 

The appearance has been steady for the 5 hrs or so.  Maybe the next pass will be more conclusive.

[tiger_deF]

Beryl seems to be going a structural transition. The banding has dried out and been reduced across the entire system, yet the convection it is producing in the eyewall is some of the deepest yet

 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

I mean this is so borderline I can’t fault them for going either side of a 5. I swear this was likely maxed out 2 hours ago and those FL winds are reflective of that. I could see an upgrade if damage warrants it but I doubt this data warrants the upgrade. For both Ian and Michael there was conclusive wind data for the upgrade. 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, tiger_deF said:

Beryl seems to be going a structural transition. The banding has dried out and been reduced across the entire system, yet the convection it is producing in the eyewall is some of the deepest yet

 

 

This is usually how annular canes start but that’s just not possible in the carribean in July, right?

[Normandy]

The odd structural issues in the east side are because the hurricane is embedded within a strong easterly flow at both low levels and mid levels.  This is the graveyard that typically kills most smaller circulations. Beryl is able to keep this flow at bay, however it causes some ugliness on satellite

[Jebman]

19 minutes ago, Normandy said:

The odd structural issues in the east side are because the hurricane is embedded within a strong easterly flow at both low levels and mid levels.  This is the graveyard that typically kills most smaller circulations. Beryl is able to keep this flow at bay, however it causes some ugliness on satellite

This is why Beryl is going to hold together all the way across the Caribbean. The storm is so strong and so organized, that the only thing that will ever be able to weaken it significantly will be unfortunately a landfall. This season is so anomalous its beyond unbelievable.

[Random Chaos]

Looks like asymmetry has been resolved and eye is symmetrical and contracting on IR, excellent structural look.

The lightening in the eastern Eyewall is intense and sustained:

 

[gymengineer]

28 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I mean this is so borderline I can’t fault them for going either side of a 5. I swear this was likely maxed out 2 hours ago and those FL winds are reflective of that. I could see an upgrade if damage warrants it but I doubt this data warrants the upgrade. For both Ian and Michael there was conclusive wind data for the upgrade. 

The reports for both Ian and Michael pointed out the analyses that they couldn’t do in real time. Michael took 5 new layers of analysis to justify the upgrade, including land-based Doppler data, pressure-wind relationship, satellite analysis, and deep dive into missing SMFR data.
 

Ian required analysis of P-3 Tail Doppler data, scrubbing of originally flagged SMFR data similar in value (high 130’s) that this Beryl pass just yielded, and the assumptions of undersampling to arrive at the upgrade. 

My point is that we just don’t know what they may be looking at post season. 
 

 

[Boston Bulldog]

Still some time for Beryl to take advantage of low shear. A bit outdated considering the 21Z timestamp, but still anomalously low shear values over and near the storm. The quickening easterlies (causing a Westerly shear direction) and the TUTT will begin to erode it significantly more tomorrow.

 

[Boston Bulldog]

SSMIS does suggest that there is indeed westerly shear impacting the core already. Lots of convective activity in the east eyewall, can Beryl wrap it upshear and rebuild out west? 

[Windspeed]

I don't really see any evidence of an outer wind maxima yet. Will be curious to see the turn here for recon if they try to sample the NE quadrant one more time. Beryl still has an opportunity to strengthen overnight prior to any upper level environment degrading on Tuesday.

Edit: They made a left turn. Looks like they will try to punch the west eyewall or SW quadrant and then attempt to sample the NE quadrant one more time.

Also, I need to correct myself. There was indeed an outer maxima in the band to the east and northeast of the NE eyewall on that first pass, though subtle, just not an outer maxima in the SW quadrant.

Edit 2: Nevermind, I read the FLWs wrong as the plane was closing in on the core. There is a strong band there, but it's more of a plateau, not a spike in winds. That doesn't really constitute an outer maxima. Here is a nice radar presentation from ENCWX.

[Amped]

10 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

SSMIS does suggest that there is indeed westerly shear impacting the core already. Lots of convective activity in the east eyewall, can Beryl wrap it upshear and rebuild out west? 

Seems to be doing a very good job of that so far. Wouldn't know there's any issues on the west side of the storm from the IR presentation.

[tiger_deF]

I have a more theory based question I’d love to hear some expert opinions on. So we know that the positioning of upper level features can help or hinder a hurricane. These effects are based on the movement of upper level air masses on their periphery, which can induce mid-level shear which either ventilates the storm or tears it apart.

 

My question is, beyond core disruption, does the kinetic energy of these masses of air and their circulations interacting with one another provide any energy to the system, or is that not meaningful given the scale of force present in the core?